High end Heritage lots, which would you rather have?

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by botn

Buyer is far from a moron. He just increased the value of his Bradshaw and Smith rookies that he is sitting on so when he dumps them onto the market he will have a nice pay day.

I just looked up the population for PSA 10 Ozzies. Total pop is 4. Do you honestly believe the guy who won this card owns the other 3 and was trying to run the price of this card up to increase their value? That seems very unlikely.

I have heard the rumors of this pump and dump strategy. The cards this might make this strategy pay off are cards like the 86 Jordan, 55 Clemente, and 52 Mantle that have a high enough population and still hold some value at lower grades. Not 70s rookies with single digit PSA 10 populations.

[botn]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

I just looked up the population for PSA 10 Ozzies. Total pop is 4. Do you honestly believe the guy who won this card owns the other 3 and was trying to run the price of this card up to increase their value? That seems very unlikely.

I have heard the rumors of this pump and dump strategy. The cards this might make this strategy pay off are cards like the 86 Jordan, 55 Clemente, and 52 Mantle that have a high enough population and still hold some value at lower grades. Not 70s rookies with single digit PSA 10 populations.

You are being a bit too literal. Was applying a widely known concept to the two rookie card examples. I did not look up pops. You and i are in different realities when it comes to the current move of the market. You feel it is entirely spirited bidding. I know it is not.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by botn

You are being a bit too literal. Was applying a widely known concept to the two rookie card examples. I did not look up pops. You and i are in different realities when it comes to the current move of the market. You feel it is entirely spirited bidding. I know it is not.

Fair enough. That would have to be a pretty elaborate plan to lift the entire market up artificially but if whoever is responsible has enough money I suppose it's possible. I just think that Smith with such a low population could be a legitimate sale.

[botn]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

Fair enough. That would have to be a pretty elaborate plan to lift the entire market up artificially but if whoever is responsible has enough money I suppose it's possible. I just think that Smith with such a low population could be a legitimate sale.

Oy...As I have stated here and privately to you, there are guys who are legitimately bidding too who do not know or care that there is artificial bidding taking place. And no it is not that elaborate or hard to do.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by botn

Oy...As I have stated here and privately to you, there are guys who are legitimately bidding too who do not know or care that there is artificial bidding taking place. And no it is not that elaborate or hard to do.

I get what you're saying. I think where we disagree is exactly how much influence this group is having on the hobby as a whole. Time will tell if these new prices are sustainable or will continue to rise even more, or if they will come crashing back down to the level of a couple of years ago.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

I just looked up the population for PSA 10 Ozzies. Total pop is 4. Do you honestly believe the guy who won this card owns the other 3 and was trying to run the price of this card up to increase their value? That seems very unlikely.

I have heard the rumors of this pump and dump strategy. The cards this might make this strategy pay off are cards like the 86 Jordan, 55 Clemente, and 52 Mantle that have a high enough population and still hold some value at lower grades. Not 70s rookies with single digit PSA 10 populations.

The sale is probably not someone pumping up prices, but could be. And yes, that sort of ploy works better when you can gather up a lot of whatever you're boosting.

It's really easy with collectibles where the "value" is driven more by emotion than anything else. An almost purely demand driven market.

So having a 10 Ozzie Smith rookie sell for 33K puts it out of reach for many collectors, and they have to "settle" for a 9....Checking Ebay sold listings shows they're currently under 1000. With a sale of a 10 for 33, how long before they're higher?

Of course, while looking I found an article from 2012 about a 10 sold for 17,523 making it just over 20 with the bp. And then the 9s were only about 3-400. So both have just about doubled since then. I don't have access to price records between then and now, but I'd bet the jump for the 9s came fairly soon after the 20K sale. There'd be a bit of a delay for the bins at the old prices to sell, then there'd be a rise for a few months while dealers pushed the new inventory to a plateau which would stabilize.

The current price for a 9 is actually somewhat more expensive compared to a 10 than it was in 2012. If I had the money, I'd pick up a couple 9s soon.

Steve B

[Peter_Spaeth]

With only 4 10s not sure the 10 will push up the 9s of which there are well over 200.

[Peter_Spaeth]

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-87-Flee...p2047675.l2557

AND

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-FLEER-S...p2047675.l2557

2.5x on a common as dirt card in 2 months????

[steve B]

And If I had them raw I doubt I'd send them in figuring the centering was too far off to get a really high grade.

Agreed about the 4 vs 200+ that should keep the pricing separated. The amount the 9s have closed the gap is fairly small, 1/50th of a 10 then and 1/39th now unless the 33K doesn't include the bp. I'll have to remember to check again in a month or two to see if 9s have come up any.

I wrote a paper in college about something similar, back then coin pricing for gold coins that weren't special was done by the spot price, which many dealers got from a hobby paper. Laziness being what it is, most wouldn't reprice their inventory for a while. The paper proposed profiting off the lag time in pricing, when things went up there was at least a week or two of lag before the dealers raised the price, and when it went down there was the same lag. Potentially like having a crystal ball for someone focused and active with some bankroll. The prof didn't understand it, but gave me a B based on the length of the paper. "It could be genius, or it could be the worst idea ever. But I can't understand it well enough to tell. so you get a B because it's about as long as a B paper." Nice having an economics prof who had a degree from behind the iron curtain.

Steve B