Rising Tide Lifts All Boats, But . . .

[T206Collector]

I have a couple of general thoughts on this.

The maturing of the Internet and proliferation of on-line auction houses has dramatically influenced how people collect - not just what, but how they enter the hobby, and what interests them from day to day.

Mantle and Cobb, for some reason, have taken off at a rate I haven't really seen in quite awhile. I sold mine for what I thought were ridiculous prices only to look back just a few months and start to feel like I should've waited a bit longer. People who recognized the value in Mantle's 51B card only a few months ago are now seeing even crazier prices today.

Common T206s in 5 and below have stayed at about the same level for the past 10 years or so, with some exceptions - collectors are also waking up collectively to the relative scarcities of certain commons in the set (e.g., Bull Durham).

The takeaways for me are not that different than usual - Cobb and Mantle and Ruth always sell and always seem to appreciate in stages.

Where I get scared is when I shell out $5K+ for a common T206 card signed by the player, a practice I've engaged in way too frequently of late. In that niche area of the market there are only three or four people engaged, and we all know each other. If I go to sell, I'm removing 25%+ of the buying market. If one or two of the other guys stop being interested there will be a massive softening. I like to remind myself that I collect for the beauty and passion without regard to price. But, if I ever need to sell, I really don't have any particular expectation that I'm going to get money back on these!

[ullmandds]

What I've learned as of the last 10-15 years...sometimes the hard way...is that rarity does not equal value. I thought the lowdy w/red cross back t207 that I won in REA years ago was kind of a bargain for what I won it for...being a 1 of a kind.

When I sold I took a big bath...and since it has sold for less with each subsequent sale.

It seems that when cards are too rare/scarce...not as many people are interested in them.

I'm a slow learner...and I tend to learn my lessons the hard way.

As long as you love collecting signed cards...ultimately that's all that matters!

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

It seems that when cards are too rare/scarce...not as many people are interested in them.

This is a hugely key point. People like to chase after things, but they also like to catch them sometimes. The popularity of T206 is driven by the Wagner mystique at the top of a readily accessible set. It's proliferation and availability is a primary driver of interest in the set. People love being able to pick one up on a daily basis.

[Touch'EmAll]

Supply and demand. We all know supply on our pre-war cards is quite low. However, the supply variable is nowhere near the importance of the demand variable for card valuation. Its almost like if you get below a certain supply number, the demand is almost non-existent. There has to be enough supply to drive values up - doesn't seem right, but thats the way it works with certain "big" cards. Thinking back to college economics 101, not sure the straight line supply/demand curve works as taught here with cards.

[ullmandds]

Look at all the pre war commons on ebay...is there a home for them all????

[nat]

Supply and demand curves are often non-linear. To take one dramatic example: if there was only one telephone, there would be no demand for it, and (up to a point), demand increases as supply increases. (Because the value of having a phone depends on being able to talk to other people on it.)

And yeah, that t206s, and 33 Goudeys, and a lot of the other valuable sets are valuable depends, in part, on them being relatively common and widely available. Trying to build a very very rare set is difficult enough that lots of people aren't going to try it. And while trying to complete the monster is also really difficult, you can at least make progress on it pretty easily. So lots of people try to. Which produces the demand, hence, the prices, despite the easy availability.

[Joshwesley]

In my very brief time with cards..... I've made the decision that if I am buying and collecting on value and potential to hold my value or even appreciate... I'm gonna stick with t206's (HOF's/and occasional rare backs).... And cracker jacks.

I don't think the market is ever going to fall away for those 2 sets... Much because of the points made in the posts above