REA bids - health of the hobby

[ZachS]

Not sure. Looking at some previous sales:

2013 - PSA 1.5 in Heritage - $1,553.50
2015 - SGC 40 in Goodwin - $2,962.80

I guess somebody really wants that card.

[darwinbulldog]

But why? For that kind of money you could pick up a nice E94 common: http://bid.robertedwardauctions.com/...e?itemid=39219

[ZachS]

[Exhibitman]

There is no need to speculate on the issue. There have to be some people here who are participants in this market. If you have enough money to spend five or six figures on a card, you can answer the question as to why you are willing to get into the market now.

As for Mantle, it isn't about Mantle the player as much as it is about the 1952 Topps Mantle. I never saw him play; doesn't matter. The iconic card from the iconic set of the post-war era is the 1952 Mantle. Lots of other RCs and high end cards are soaring right now, but the Mantle has catapulted into the realm of legendary card, joining the T206 Wagner, the Babe Ruth RC, and maybe a few others. Casual and novice collectors know the card. Same as the Wagner. There are over 2,000 slabbed 1952 Mantles, yet the demand is pushing all of them to unprecedented levels because collectors know that if they want the premiere Topps card of the era, they need that card. There are lots of rarer cards of Mantle out there but that one is the key.

The slightly broader market question as to the number of lesser cards breaking price records is simply a factor of a good economy for the people in the top ranks. Lots of excess income available to play with.

In terms of what to buy as an investor rather than a collector, the formula is the same as in any other rapidly expanding market: get in and get out, repeatedly, and either reinvest the profits or sock them away. No one knows when the end will be, but it will come. Remember the E card gold rush about ten years ago? You could make 50% on nearly any E HOFer in a few months before it petered out. As in all things the key is not to be the piggy who ends up holding the overpriced portfolio at the end. When the expansion slows--and it will--there will be people left with expensive cards that they cannot get out of at a profit or break even. I'm one of them!

The issue of PSA strictness is debatable. I'd think that for every card in a slightly overgraded PSA holder from the old days there is probably a card worthy of a half-point bump in a lower grade holder. I have a bunch of those but I just don't care because I have no interest in selling them.

The interesting thing for your basic collector like me is that the expansion of grading through entities like 4sharpcorners chasing tens has led to a crash in prices on many 1960s and 1970s slabbed cards other than 10s. I'm buying 6-7-8 slabbed cards of HOFers for my collection at prices below what they sold for 20 years ago raw:

- 1976 TOPPS #420 JOE MORGAN REDS HOF PSA 8 $7.99
- 1975 TOPPS #180 JOE MORGAN REDS HOF PSA 7 $5.59
- 1968 TOPPS #145 DON DRYSDALE DODGERS HOF PSA 7 $18.39
- 1973 TOPPS #330 ROD CAREW TWINS HOF PSA 7 $10.39
- 1975 TOPPS #70 MIKE SCHMIDT PHILLIES HOF PSA 7 $11.19
- 1976 TOPPS #500 REGGIE JACKSON ATHLETICS HOF PSA 7 $7.99
- 1980 TOPPS #270 MIKE SCHMIDT PHILLIES HOF PSA 9 $8.79
- 1969 TOPPS ALL-STAR #419 ROD CAREW TWINS HOF PSA 7 $6.39


It is even worse in hockey, football and basketball than in baseball. Look at this purchase I made recently:

- 1972 TOPPS #161 RENE ROBERT RC PENGUINS PSA 8 -$3.47
- 1974 TOPPS #250 WILT CHAMBERLAIN HOF PSA 7 -$21.74
- 1972 TOPPS #50 JEAN RATELLE RANGERS HOF PSA 8 -$3.47
- 1970 TOPPS/OPC STICKER STAMPS BOBBY HULL BLACK HAWKS HOF PSA 7 $18.26
- 1975 TOPPS #200 PHIL ESPOSITO BRUINS HOF PSA 8 $6.08
- 1975 TOPPS #297 ROGIE VACHON KINGS PSA 8 $3.47
- 1975 TOPPS #303 GEORGE KARL SPURS PSA 9 $3.47
- 1975 TOPPS #292 MEL DANIELS HOF PSA 9 $3.47
- 1975 TOPPS #209 O.J.SIMPSON PSA 8 $3.47
- 1975 TOPPS #214 ALAN PAGE PSA 8 $3.47
- 1975 TOPPS #160 KEN ANDERSON PSA 8 $3.47
- 1975 TOPPS #223 CLIFF HARRIS-JACK TATUM PSA 8 $3.47
- 1975 TOPPS #243 JEAN RATELLE PSA 8$3.47
- 1974 TOPPS #196 DAVE SCHULTZ FLYERS PSA 8 $3.47

Pack-fresh 40 year old HOFers for these prices simply because some buffoon put a different number on the flip? Crazy times...