How would you rank these pitchers?

[nat]

Niekro is a serious underrated pitcher. "Wins above replacement" is a stat that measures how many wins (based on runs allowed and historical runs-to-wins correlations) a pitcher would be expected to generate for his team, above a random AAA guy. Reasonable hall of fame candidates usually have around 60 (although some of the more questionable hall of famers come in far below that). Niekro has almost 100. And that's not all just from hanging around, he's also 50 wins above average (a stat just like the one above, except that it compares him to an average pitcher instead of a AAA guy). His top two seasons by WAR are 10 and 8.9, it usually takes about 8 to be in the MVP discussion.

Perry was a half-step behind him. 93 WAR and 42 WAA. Basically, Niekro had one more really good year than Perry, although at his best Perry was slightly better. (Tops out at 11 WAR for a season, which is pretty freaking impressive.)

Marichal, great though he was, isn't really in their class. Niekro and Perry pitched about 2000 more innings than Marichal did. The difference is even more dramatic if you pay attention to the extra value that they generated, basically Niekro and Perry had Marichal's career, and then 2/3rds of another border-line hall of fame career on top of it. About 62 WAR for Marichal, FWIW.

As for desirability of baseball cards, I don't really know. Niekro played for some terrible Braves teams, which probably holds down value of his cards. Perry played for lots of teams and isn't really claimed by any one fan base, which probably does the same for his. Marichal spent practically his whole career with the Giants, which has got to help. SMR gives the price of a 1961 Topps Marichal in NM at 750. For the Niekro rookie it's 425 (1965), and for Perry it's 750 (1962). (So maybe I'm off on the Perry thing.)

[begsu1013]

kinda partial to niekro myself:

http://www.psacard.com/PSASetRegistr....aspx?s=179998

[Rookiemonster]

Marichal
Niekro
Perry

Marichal has the most wins during the 60s .list of some pitchers from the 60s.
Koufax
Gibson
Ford
Carlton
Seaver
Ryan
Jenkins
Niekro
Perry
Cuellar
Katt
Drysdale
Bunning

Not many years played in the 60s for some of of these guys . But it still adds up to compition for cy youngs and league leader marks .

I know I might have missed a few .

[the 'stache]

Marichal
Perry
Niekro

While I realize that just remaining in the Majors as a starter for 22 or 24 years is an accomplishment in and of itself, that doesn't really sway me when the question is "which of these three men was the best pitcher?"

Juan Marichal was the best pitcher. I look at things like Fielding Independent Pitching, strikeout to walk ratio, ERA +, WHIP, shutouts, etc. Marichal is best in all of them. Yes, the other two guys had their career metrics hurt by playing well past their prime, but when you compare their primes, Marichal was still the best.

First, the numbers. Their 10-year peaks:



While Niekro and Perry both had excellent numbers, overall, for their ten year primes, look at Marichal. He averaged 20 wins and 10 losses, a 2.65 ERA, and 194 strike outs a season for a decade.

Marichal has the lowest ERA, the best ERA +, the lowest WHIP by far, the best strikeout-to-walk ratio, and the most shutouts. His FIP is nearly identical to Perry's. Marichal's control was superior. Perry and Niekro hit twice as many batters, and their walk rates are substantially higher.

The stat that's most impressive to me is career shutouts. Niekro started 716 games in his career, and pitched 45 shutouts, or one per 16 (15.91) starts. Perry tossed 53 shutouts in 690 career starts, or one per 13 (13.01) starts. Look at Marichal, comparatively. He threw 52 shutouts in only 457 starts, or one per 9 (8.79) starts.

Then, look at how many times each man led the league in a particular metric.

Niekro in 22 seasons led the league in wins twice, ERA once, strikeouts once, and ERA + once.

Perry in 24 seasons led the league in wins three times, in ERA + once, in shutouts once, and in walks per 9 innings pitched once.

Marichal in 16 seasons led the league in wins twice, in ERA once, in shutouts twice, in ERA + twice, in WHIP twice, in hits per 9 innings once, in walks per 9 innings four times, and in strikeout to walk ratio three times.

I think it's clear Juan Marichal was not only in the class of Gaylord Perry and Phil Niekro, but he was better than either of them.

[steve B]

This is one of the things that makes baseball in general a lot of fun.

I only caught the very end of Marichals career, when he was very average.
I did get to see a bit of Perry and Niekro, and lots of Wakefield, another knuckleballer.

One of the things that makes them hard to compare is pitching style. Perry and pretty much any knuckleball pitcher will have fairly long careers barring injury or lack of desire to continue. It's just not as taxing on the arm as being a hard thrower.

I've grown away from using wins as an important stat for pitchers. There's so much that goes into getting a lot of wins, they have to be good to begin with, but a good pitcher on a team that can't score or a team without much of a bullpen will lose a lot of wins. The same goes for a lot of the traditional stats. Poor fielding behind the pitcher can hurt a lot.

So the three are - for me- very hard to compare.
Marichal played for some really good teams, and to my thinking was a great pitcher. Lots of pitches, and a decent bit of power too. Just the sort of pitcher who will strike out a lot of batters, especially with excellent control.

Perry - The spitter/ splitter/ maybe maybe not and a bunch of other pitches as well but not a great fastball. The sort of pitcher who looks to get a lot of ground balls. He played for some good teams, and some not so good teams.

Niekro - Knuckleball pitchers are so different it's futile to make comparisons. And sometimes their value to the team is in stuff that won't show up well in stats. Add in the inconsistency of the pitch and you get a pitcher who can be amazing one day and shelled the next without doing anything differently. I didn't pay enough attention to Niekro to know for sure, but if he was managed similarly to Wakefield there would have been a few times during the season when the relievers needed a rest and the knuckleball pitcher is called on to give them that whether the pitch is working well or not. Terrible for any stats, but good for the team. I'd guess that with the Braves being pretty bad a lot of the time he was needed to eat up innings more than a regular pitcher. Wakefield did a lot of that, even more if it was just a couple innings to take some work off the middle relievers. And I think once started two games in a row and maybe three in the same week (Maybe one was a very long relief, like 8 innings? I don't recall for sure.)


So overall I'd say it depends.

If I have all three in their prime and need to win one game ?
Marichal followed by either of the others depending on who else is on the team.

If I'm picking guys for a team?
Probably Niekro for the flexibility I'd get. If I had a great infield, I might opt for Perry.


Steve B

[brian1961]

Marichal, by far, especially for peak value. Oh was he feared. With his high kick, he was fun to watch and photograph.

Gaylord Perry was fascinating, because he had outstanding years with three teams as diverse as they come---the Giants, the Indians, and the Padres. With tongue in cheek, Perry was feared, too. It's tough to hit a spit-baller, and who wants to get hit with his slobber, when you're tryin' to clobber!

Growing up in the 60s, Marichal was always thought of as better than Perry or Neikro. Gibson started to get a lot of respect after the '64 Series, and he just kept getting better and better, but then angry Gibby ain't in the discussion.

If you want underrated pitchers, I'll chime in with Mel Stottlemyre and Dean Chance.

Look, I'm not trying to de-rail this fine thread. Keep it goin, guys.

---Brian Powell

[mckinneyj]

> Marichal, by far

I'll echo this... growing up in the 60s and just using the eye test in the NL it was Koufax-Marichal as 1-2 up until Koufax retired and Gibson overtook Marichal. At no time would I have ever ranked Perry or Niekro as one of the top two of their peers.