3 Ty Cobb Lucky 7's just showed up on EBay.

[Scocs]

Private sales off eBay are still fraught with problems...

[rhettyeakley]

I'm pretty skeptical of the supposed prices these have been bringing. I never in a million years thought of a T206 Cobb/Cobb as being a million dollar card (even if graded an 8 or something crazy). I just don't know if I believe that the nicest really sold for somewhere around 1-2mil like is being reported. It wouldn't be too hard to manipulate prices on these and convince collectors to overpay for the subsequent ones. I just can't imagine them selling for anywhere near what is being reported in an actual auction setting.

[slidekellyslide]

Originally Posted by rhettyeakley

I'm pretty skeptical of the supposed prices these have been bringing. I never in a million years thought of a T206 Cobb/Cobb as being a million dollar card (even if graded an 8 or something crazy). I just don't know if I believe that the nicest really sold for somewhere around 1-2mil like is being reported. It wouldn't be too hard to manipulate prices on these and convince collectors to overpay for the subsequent ones. I just can't imagine them selling for anywhere near what is being reported in an actual auction setting.

Agreed. 7 more show up and the price skyrockets? That doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Not saying it didn't happen, but wouldn't surprise me one bit if there is market manipulation taking place. Nobody in this hobby seems to learn a lesson.

[gnaz01]

At least there's free shipping and $100 in Ebay bucks.........

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by slidekellyslide

Agreed. 7 more show up and the price skyrockets? That doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Not saying it didn't happen, but wouldn't surprise me one bit if there is market manipulation taking place. Nobody in this hobby seems to learn a lesson.

private sales are a lot different that auctions (shilling not-withstanding)

lets see them go to auction to see what value is ....private sells can obviously be a factor but when you are trying to get 10x the price cause of a private sale thats a lot different then saying a 2000 card is worth 3000 because of private sales even if SMR is 2500 etc..

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by slidekellyslide

Agreed. 7 more show up and the price skyrockets? That doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Not saying it didn't happen, but wouldn't surprise me one bit if there is market manipulation taking place. Nobody in this hobby seems to learn a lesson.

It happened, I am sure of it. You all don't understand the mentality of today's "whales."

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It happened, I am sure of it. You all don't understand the mentality of today's "whales."

Maybe you're right, but I do understand the mentality of greed and price manipulation.

[rhettyeakley]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It happened, I am sure of it. You all don't understand the mentality of today's "whales."

Peter, I think we understand Whales just fine and know that sometimes people pay crazy prizes for things.

Given all the circumstances, past sales figures, etc. it really just defies logic to me that a card, like Dan said, would multiply in price many times while the known population just increased by 50% with a single find. Where did the 1-2mil price even come from? Did the seller just pull that # out of thin air as there is no precedent for THAT card to get THAT money.

Honestly, it doesn't bother me one bit if someone spent that or not and everyone keeps running around saying things like you just did that they "know" it happened (I guess I need to find richer hobby friends to hang out with ) & I have no real reason to doubt it I guess but I am really having a hard time understanding the "why." I understand better the nicest going for a lot but the other 3 that supposedly sold are the ones that really leave me scratching my head as to why.

[Peter_Spaeth]

There are people now buying cards to whom these sums are not that big a deal. If their ego tells them they want one, for bragging rights, then the money is almost incidental. They aren't sitting there poring over VCP or other evidence of price history. What matters is getting there before someone else does.

[iwantitiwinit]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

There are people now buying cards to whom these sums are not that big a deal. If their ego tells them they want one, for bragging rights, then the money is almost incidental. They aren't sitting there poring over VCP or other evidence of price history. What matters is getting there before someone else does.

I agree.

[irishdenny]

Originally Posted by rhettyeakley

Peter, I think we understand Whales just fine and know that sometimes people pay crazy prizes for things.

Given all the circumstances, past sales figures, etc. it really just defies logic to me that a card, like Dan said, would multiply in price many times while the known population just increased by 50% with a single find. Where did the 1-2mil price even come from? Did the seller just pull that # out of thin air as there is no precedent for THAT card to get THAT money.

Honestly, it doesn't bother me one bit if someone spent that or not and everyone keeps running saying things like you just did that they "know" it happened (I guess I need to find richer hobby friends to hang out with ) & I have no real reason to doubt it I guess but I am really having a hard time understanding the "why." I understand better the nicest going for a lot but the other 3 that supposedly sold are the ones that really leave me scratching my head as to why.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

There are people now buying cards to whom these sums are not that big a deal. If their ego tells them they want one, for bragging rights, then the money is almost incidental. They aren't sitting there poring over VCP or other evidence of price history. What matters is getting there before someone else does.

I'm a wee bit skeptical... I can see these cards of Mr. Cobb to of played out in both scenarios'. However, bein aware of the scenarios' brings me to a thought, "If Stupid Money is a miss, then why not "WANT" the Highest Graded fir Braggin Rights?"
Honestly, logic seems to lean towards the probable... not the improbable. Unless, The whales are grabbing what they can when then Can!? And if that's the case, then why is the $1M Card Still on ebay...? Maybe The Whales Now Feel the Play? Or Maybe Now They Even Feel Play'd!? oR Even Both!

In Any Case... People with "Stupid Money" Always seem ta do Stupid things with their Money... Thus the "Whale Theory"
And we know that just because a Card is bought fir $150k more taday then 18 months ago, surely doesn't mean that that card will sell fir that price ta Auction tomorrow.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by rhettyeakley

Peter, I think we understand Whales just fine and know that sometimes people pay crazy prizes for things.

Given all the circumstances, past sales figures, etc. it really just defies logic to me that a card, like Dan said, would multiply in price many times while the known population just increased by 50% with a single find. Where did the 1-2mil price even come from? Did the seller just pull that # out of thin air as there is no precedent for THAT card to get THAT money.

Honestly, it doesn't bother me one bit if someone spent that or not and everyone keeps running around saying things like you just did that they "know" it happened (I guess I need to find richer hobby friends to hang out with ) & I have no real reason to doubt it I guess but I am really having a hard time understanding the "why." I understand better the nicest going for a lot but the other 3 that supposedly sold are the ones that really leave me scratching my head as to why.

A PSA 1 sold for over 150k more than a year ago. The market has completely changed since then on a lot of high end cards, especially the most expensive ones. I would have expected that same PSA 1 to sell for more today, not to mention a 2.5, 3.5, or 4.5.

50% is a pretty big increase in terms of a percentage of a population, but apparently the demand for this card is far greater than the supply.

[Iron Horse]

Yes, there were 7 that were found. As far as i understand these 7 just about blow away the other known samples. I feel if that is the case then these will bring much higher prices then the previous ones. All the 2.5's just about look amazing as far as eye appeal goes. I thought the last sale of a 1.5 was close to $150,000 & the card did not look so hot. I would say then an amazing 2.5 should bring 300k easy
There are a lot of wealthy collectors in the hobby these days, and that is a fact. Otherwise we would not see the steep rise in some specific HOF rookie cards as we have seen over the past year.

Enjoy the hobby and enjoy these finds. These are what dreams are made of

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by slidekellyslide

Agreed. 7 more show up and the price skyrockets? That doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Not saying it didn't happen, but wouldn't surprise me one bit if there is market manipulation taking place. Nobody in this hobby seems to learn a lesson.

Not really sure what you mean Dan. Could you expand?

[rhettyeakley]

Believe what you guys want, no sour grapes as I really don't care how people spend their money, I'm just trying to understand it all.

A 1 sold a year ago for 150K, so a 4.5 should be worth 1.5-2 million, I guess that makes sense to somebody (not me).

With the way you guys think "whales" operate we should be seeing a lot more $1 million+ cards in the near future, I'm on board with that!

[Republicaninmass]

Its my guess that now that the family has been paid off in their entirety from the low grade sales the rest is profit. Nothing wrong with them sitting.

It's great press for the next 'most over priced eBay items' thread.

[slidekellyslide]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Not really sure what you mean Dan. Could you expand?

Market manipulation in that the 4.5 did not really sell for 1.5 to 2 million dollars. How did that number get out there? Is it real? Now a few of them pop up on ebay for what seem like bargain prices at half a million bucks. I don't have any clue if that's what is happening, but it wouldn't surprise me one bit.

I mean, how could anyone be surprised at the shenanigans going on in this hobby?

Anyone recall the T210 Joe Jackson on ebay a decade or so back that "sold" for $150,000 only later to be found to be a sham sale just to set a false market price for that card? This type of manipulation has been going on forever.

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by slidekellyslide

Market manipulation in that the 4.5 did not really sell for 1.5 to 2 million dollars. How did that number get out there? Is it real? Now a few of them pop up on ebay for what seem like bargain prices at half a million bucks. I don't have any clue if that's what is happening, but it wouldn't surprise me one bit.

I mean, how could anyone be surprised at the shenanigans going on in this hobby?

Anyone recall the T210 Joe Jackson on ebay a decade or so back that "sold" for $150,000 only later to be found to be a sham sale just to set a false market price for that card? This type of manipulation has been going on forever.

Holy Crap.

[1952boyntoncollector]

There is sure to be an open auction this year......but then people willl worry about shilling

so direct sales are tough to know if real and same with auctions being truly real..so people will complain either way about the reliability of the sale price...it is what it is..

[iwantitiwinit]

Originally Posted by rhettyeakley

I'm pretty skeptical of the supposed prices these have been bringing. I never in a million years thought of a T206 Cobb/Cobb as being a million dollar card (even if graded an 8 or something crazy). I just don't know if I believe that the nicest really sold for somewhere around 1-2mil like is being reported. It wouldn't be too hard to manipulate prices on these and convince collectors to overpay for the subsequent ones. I just can't imagine them selling for anywhere near what is being reported in an actual auction setting.

Don't know if I agree with this. There are a limited number of collectors that are able to purchase these very high dollar cards. Private sale or not, its what someone is willing to pay that is the true issue. Is it really price manipulation when there is only a single seller, I think not. There is only a single source of supply so it is truly and solely a function of supply and demand. It might be price maximization but I don't think it's price manipulation.

[brian1961]

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

Don't know if I agree with this. There are a limited number of collectors that are able to purchase these very high dollar cards. Private sale or not, its what someone is willing to pay that is the true issue. Is it really price manipulation when there is only a single seller, I think not. There is only a single source of supply so it is truly and solely a function of supply and demand. It might be price maximization but I don't think it's price manipulation.

Robert, a most observant point in these proceedings. Our hobby has been so immersed in the mentality of "the best way to sell a card and get the most money is through an auction house" that the concept of a private sale is eliminated without thinking.

Emphasis on the last two words.

And how DID our fellow collector, Diamondbacks owner Mr. Ken Kendrick, acquire his breathtaking T-206 Honus Wagner?

The Lucky 7 Ty Cobb find was a legitimate find. Try to remember the Mr. Mint find of the 1952 Topps high numbers and semi-highs in 1986, I believe it was. The far, far, far majority of these he simply sold. Granted, he had not begun his major phone auctions as yet, but he sold them through SCD, shows, and perhaps personal visits to his office. Many in the hobby were skeptical of the find, for they wondered if there were actually more cases of those precious 52 high numbers the owner had not divulged to Alan Rosen. Comments like some of yours---too good to be true.

When collectors "finally" figured out this was indeed a find of a lifetime, and a chance of a lifetime, they were in a major uproar to buy these cards from Mr. Mint. The cards from the case then got gobbled up quickly. The Johnny-come-lately-s were banging their heads against their drywalls, leaving indentations and craters.

Guys, cards from finds are in a class all their own. You know much better than I how serious of a scarcity a T-206 red Cobb with the Ty Cobb Tobacco backside was before the find. The Lucky 7 Cobbs blow the others away, condition-wise, just as the Mr. Mint 1952 Topps high numbers blew away those existing in collections at the time. They were so distinctively pack-fresh MINT. Obviously, in the years to come, they weren't all technically MINT, but they were the source for virtually all of the eventual PSA 8s, 9s, and the 3 10s.

It would seem the high end collectors have read the national news stories, done their research, and decided that kind of item fits their type of exclusive collections. They will work with the smart dealer handling the cards, and pay his price. It cannot be denied, the dealer handling the sale of the Cobbs for the family very much knows this is perhaps HIS once in a lifetime boo coo sales opportunity, and he shan't scotch this opportunity!

He hasn't, has he??????

---Brian Powell

[Scocs]

Brian,

You make excellent points. I still don't understand why the dealer has to place them on eBay? I realize the answer is "maximum exposure" leading to a potential private sale without all those pesky buyer and seller fees.

Still, if you owned the Hope Diamond, would you list it on eBay with a Buy it Now for $75 million dollars...? It's like Kate Upton using Match. com for a date....

Scott

[Wildfireschulte]

I made a best offer of $150,000 on the 2.5 and got a message from eBay that said that I have not established sufficient credit and need to call them. Oh well, I tried.

[Sean]

Originally Posted by Wildfireschulte

I made a best offer of $150,000 on the 2.5 and got a message from eBay that said that I have not established sufficient credit and need to call them. Oh well, I tried.

Yeah, "insufficient credit." One more reason why I'll never own a Cobb back.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Wildfireschulte

I made a best offer of $150,000 on the 2.5 and got a message from eBay that said that I have not established sufficient credit and need to call them. Oh well, I tried.

Over a certain limit of a bid on ebay and you (at least) used to, if not now, have a cc on file. If not, then a high bid or snipe won't take place. It happened to a friend once when I won a card for 20k+. He sniped more but didn't have a cc on file so his bid didn't get placed and I won it. He wasn't happy either.

[baztacula]

Originally Posted by Wildfireschulte

I made a best offer of $150,000 on the 2.5 and got a message from eBay that said that I have not established sufficient credit and need to call them. Oh well, I tried.

I offered $1,500 and was immediately rejected. It was the one with the unfortunate crease.

[brian1961]

Originally Posted by Scocs

Brian,

You make excellent points. I still don't understand why the dealer has to place them on eBay? I realize the answer is "maximum exposure" leading to a potential private sale without all those pesky buyer and seller fees.

Still, if you owned the Hope Diamond, would you list it on eBay with a Buy it Now for $75 million dollars...? It's like Kate Upton using Match. com for a date....

Scott

Scott, you yourself have brought up a most valid point, concerning the dealer listing the remainder of the Lucky 7 Find on eBay. It is difficult to pin down his modus operandi for the remaining few specimens, though I would think the EBAY people would take an extremely dim view of said dealer using their services as a high-powered spotlight to attract buyers, then steer clear of the Bay to actually do the deal, thus eliminating EBAY's rightful, though increasingly high middle man percentage fee. Since the Lucky 7 is a major hobby find, and national news item, if word gets out that sales were consummated apart from EBAY, after they were known to be listed, the Bay may have the last say---and tie a 10,000-pound boulder to the dealer's eBay business, and drown him where their BAY is concerned.

I well remember an incident soon after Dale Earnhardt was tragically killed in the 2001 Daytona 500. This guy where I worked had an absolutely BANZAI Earnhardt collection. He listed the whole thing on eBay, "just to see what kind of action he would get". I heard the collection had gone past $14,000, when this guy took it down. The EBAY watchdogs were boiling, and told him if he ever pulled a trick like that again, he would be banned from eBay for life. I do not know what became of that character, as I got laid off the job a couple years later, but in retrospect, if he really intended to eventually sell his Dale Earnhardt collection, THAT was the time to do so. I think he blew it, but no doubt his collection had a very strong emotional attachment to him.

As Moe Howard said in "THREE LITTLE PIRATES", "We shall see, but we shall see." ---Brian Powell

[rats60]

Originally Posted by brian1961

Scott, you yourself have brought up a most valid point, concerning the dealer listing the remainder of the Lucky 7 Find on eBay. It is difficult to pin down his modus operandi for the remaining few specimens, though I would think the EBAY people would take an extremely dim view of said dealer using their services as a high-powered spotlight to attract buyers, then steer clear of the Bay to actually do the deal, thus eliminating EBAY's rightful, though increasingly high middle man percentage fee. Since the Lucky 7 is a major hobby find, and national news item, if word gets out that sales were consummated apart from EBAY, after they were known to be listed, the Bay may have the last say---and tie a 10,000-pound boulder to the dealer's eBay business, and drown him where their BAY is concerned.

I well remember right after Dale Earnhardt was tragically killed in the 2001 Daytona 500. This guy where I worked had an absolutely BANZAI Earnhardt collection. He listed the whole thing on eBay, "just to see what kind of action he would get". I heard the collection had gone past $14,000, when this guy took it down. The EBAY watchdogs were boiling, and told him if he ever pulled a trick like that again, he would be banned from eBay for life. I do not know what became of that character, as I left that job a couple years later, but in retrospect, if he really intended to eventually sell his Dale Earnhardt collection, THAT was the time to do so. I think he blew it, but no doubt his collection had a very strong emotional attachment to him.

As Moe Howard said in "THREE LITTLE PIRATES", "We shall see, but we shall see." ---Brian Powell

Ebay caps their fees at 750.00. I would think on a 500k card the seller wouldn't be trying to evade such a small fee compared to 18-20% that auction houses take.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by brian1961

Scott, you yourself have brought up a most valid point, concerning the dealer listing the remainder of the Lucky 7 Find on eBay. It is difficult to pin down his modus operandi for the remaining few specimens, though I would think the EBAY people would take an extremely dim view of said dealer using their services as a high-powered spotlight to attract buyers, then steer clear of the Bay to actually do the deal, thus eliminating EBAY's rightful, though increasingly high middle man percentage fee. Since the Lucky 7 is a major hobby find, and national news item, if word gets out that sales were consummated apart from EBAY, after they were known to be listed, the Bay may have the last say---and tie a 10,000-pound boulder to the dealer's eBay business, and drown him where their BAY is concerned.

I well remember an incident soon after Dale Earnhardt was tragically killed in the 2001 Daytona 500. This guy where I worked had an absolutely BANZAI Earnhardt collection. He listed the whole thing on eBay, "just to see what kind of action he would get". I heard the collection had gone past $14,000, when this guy took it down. The EBAY watchdogs were boiling, and told him if he ever pulled a trick like that again, he would be banned from eBay for life. I do not know what became of that character, as I got laid off the job a couple years later, but in retrospect, if he really intended to eventually sell his Dale Earnhardt collection, THAT was the time to do so. I think he blew it, but no doubt his collection had a very strong emotional attachment to him.

As Moe Howard said in "THREE LITTLE PIRATES", "We shall see, but we shall see." ---Brian Powell

It is right there within the eBay's rules That sellers are allowed to cancel a transaction because Item is no longer available ... Which implies that sellers are actively trying to sell their items elsewhere it happens all the time . In your dale Earnhardt case I find it hard to believe that Ebay would make such a statement towards a seller .