Which is a tougher T206 back, Uzit or Drum?

[JerryTotino]

Kevin,

Below is a response I posted in a similar thread about a year ago. It was more so price related, but I think it makes a valid point:

I have thought about the pricing disparity between Drums and Uzits in the past and the following is my best guess as to why this has happened.

1- If you look at the PSA and SGC population reports you will notice that even though there more possible subjects that can be found with a Drum back an extremely high % of them have 1 graded example. I took a quick look at PSA and found that out of 108 graded Drums 71 had only 1 graded example. That's almost 66% of the total PSA population. The SGC population for Drums is 81 and 62 are the only graded examples on their population reports.

On the other hand, Uzits have less available subjects, but a higher count per subject. Taking a look at the PSA population for Uzits it shows 106 total graded, but only 11 subjects have 1 graded example. That is only about 10% of the total PSA Uzit population. The SGC population for Uzits shows 109 graded with 29 having only 1 graded example.

2 - If you have several master set collectors going after the only known graded example of a Drum the competition for that card will be much greater than a typical Uzit having a higher graded population per subject. In theory, if you are trying to build a master set and you think this might be the only chance you have to win that specific combination you will bid accordingly.

3 - A master set collector will take more of the overall population of Drums off the market than Uzits. For example, assuming 50% of Drums have only 1 graded example then the master set collector will be removing 50% of all the graded Drums from the market plus all the remaining subjects they need with a population > 1. Thus, this creates a very high demand for Drums because the master set collectors will be pursuing a large % of the examples that come to market and drive up the prices.

Just my thoughts.

Jerry

[iwantitiwinit]

Originally Posted by JerryTotino

Kevin,

Below is a response I posted in a similar thread about a year ago. It was more so price related, but I think it makes a valid point:

I have thought about the pricing disparity between Drums and Uzits in the past and the following is my best guess as to why this has happened.

1- If you look at the PSA and SGC population reports you will notice that even though there more possible subjects that can be found with a Drum back an extremely high % of them have 1 graded example. I took a quick look at PSA and found that out of 108 graded Drums 71 had only 1 graded example. That's almost 66% of the total PSA population. The SGC population for Drums is 81 and 62 are the only graded examples on their population reports.

On the other hand, Uzits have less available subjects, but a higher count per subject. Taking a look at the PSA population for Uzits it shows 106 total graded, but only 11 subjects have 1 graded example. That is only about 10% of the total PSA Uzit population. The SGC population for Uzits shows 109 graded with 29 having only 1 graded example.

2 - If you have several master set collectors going after the only known graded example of a Drum the competition for that card will be much greater than a typical Uzit having a higher graded population per subject. In theory, if you are trying to build a master set and you think this might be the only chance you have to win that specific combination you will bid accordingly.

3 - A master set collector will take more of the overall population of Drums off the market than Uzits. For example, assuming 50% of Drums have only 1 graded example then the master set collector will be removing 50% of all the graded Drums from the market plus all the remaining subjects they need with a population > 1. Thus, this creates a very high demand for Drums because the master set collectors will be pursuing a large % of the examples that come to market and drive up the prices.

Just my thoughts.

Jerry

Excellent points, especially point 3 and under that premise it might make sense that fewer Drums come to market for sale as once they are purchased they never see the light of day again.

[CMIZ5290]

Great input guys, does anyone else have any opinions?

[Leon]

When you say master set collector what might you be referring to? A 5000+ card T206 set or some form of that? And if it is the former, there can't be too many collectors going for all 5000+ font/back combinations as a set?

Originally Posted by JerryTotino

Kevin,

Below is a response I posted in a similar thread about a year ago. It was more so price related, but I think it makes a valid point:

I have thought about the pricing disparity between Drums and Uzits in the past and the following is my best guess as to why this has happened.

1- If you look at the PSA and SGC population reports you will notice that even though there more possible subjects that can be found with a Drum back an extremely high % of them have 1 graded example. I took a quick look at PSA and found that out of 108 graded Drums 71 had only 1 graded example. That's almost 66% of the total PSA population. The SGC population for Drums is 81 and 62 are the only graded examples on their population reports.

On the other hand, Uzits have less available subjects, but a higher count per subject. Taking a look at the PSA population for Uzits it shows 106 total graded, but only 11 subjects have 1 graded example. That is only about 10% of the total PSA Uzit population. The SGC population for Uzits shows 109 graded with 29 having only 1 graded example.

2 - If you have several master set collectors going after the only known graded example of a Drum the competition for that card will be much greater than a typical Uzit having a higher graded population per subject. In theory, if you are trying to build a master set and you think this might be the only chance you have to win that specific combination you will bid accordingly.

3 - A master set collector will take more of the overall population of Drums off the market than Uzits. For example, assuming 50% of Drums have only 1 graded example then the master set collector will be removing 50% of all the graded Drums from the market plus all the remaining subjects they need with a population > 1. Thus, this creates a very high demand for Drums because the master set collectors will be pursuing a large % of the examples that come to market and drive up the prices.

Just my thoughts.

Jerry

[CMIZ5290]

which one do you think is tougher Scot?

[JerryTotino]

Leon,

Yes I consider a master set collector to be someone going after a 5,000+ T206 set. I agree that you will not find many that fit into this category, but in the case of Drum backs it will only take one.

I took another quick look at the current PSA and SGC pop reports for the Drum back.

PSA = 121 total (approximately 73 have a pop = 1)

SGC = 84 total (approximately 65 have a pop = 1)

Total graded Drum pop = 205 (138 total with a pop of 1).

Thus, 67% of the total graded Drum population have a pop of only 1.

If only 1 master set collector has the resources/opportunity to obtain all the pop 1 Drums then a total of 138 cards (67%) will be in that collection. That doesn't even include the Drums with a pop > 1 that this collector will also need to add to that collection.

To me it is fairly clear why there can be so much pressure placed on the prices for Drums. The master set collector can possibly remove an extremely large % of population from the market creating even more demand from the remainder of the collecting community.

Thanks,

Jerry

[pokerplyr80]

Is anyone on this site going after a master set, or does anyone know someone who is? Any idea how close someone is, or has come?

That would be quite the achievement to even come close.

[Sean]

David Hall is trying for one. I believe that he's 95% of the way there.

[MVSNYC]

Leon et al- there are several collectors working on master sets. One name was mentioned already, and there's at least one other person I know who's going for it, he posts here regularly.

PS- regarding which is tuffer, Drum or Uzit, I'll say this, I've been collecting T206 for 25 years, I've owned 2 BL460's, 4 Uzits and 5 Drums.

[Tao_Moko]

I have collected "raw" for 31 years now and know that I'm not alone. I would be more interested in a sample population of these backs, ungraded, from our own forum to compare to the pop reports. I believe that the results would show Uzit edging out Drum as the tougher back. The last Uzit I recall was at auction last year - it was Al Burch and the condition was just how you like them. Thinking it was NM and sold for $12k.