Debate about stock market, collecting

[chipperhank44]

I would agree that just looking at sales is not a complete way to judge the market. Centering, Auction Marketing, Buyer's Premium, etc all come into play. But when Goodwin is selling high grade SGC examples for more than equally or higher graded PSA examples sold a few months earlier, I think the market is healthy.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by chipperhank44

I would agree that just looking at sales is not a complete way to judge the market. Centering, Auction Marketing, Buyer's Premium, etc all come into play. But when Goodwin is selling high grade SGC examples for more than equally or higher graded PSA examples sold a few months earlier, I think the market is healthy.

also just talking about one key card where even non baseball collectors collect isnt really a reflecton on the hobby......the cheaper cards dont really matter. (i dont care if a 300 dollar card now sell for 200)...its those 2000-9000 dollar purchases are the ones i look at..

uncommon commons where its a PSA 8 POP 15 or less card that can go in the 1000s i think get crushed if the ecomony goes down

[iwantitiwinit]

The current equity market retreat is in my opinion serious. It's the first time since 2008-09 that respected market "gurus" have felt the responsibility to warn of what they see as a true structural change. Central banks can continue to add stimulus in the form of quantitative easing to stimulate their economies however their main stimulus tool (rate easing) is ineffectual as rates are at or near zero. Unfortunately, the oil collapse in the near term will manifest itself into something much more than lower gasoline and heating costs for consumers. The coming defaults by small and mid sized u.s. energy companies portends to be a bad omen. High yield is already slipping as investors rush to exit high yield mutual funds "better credits" are beginning to suffer as well as energy related high yield bonds. Portfolio mangers have to raise cash to meet redemptions and the little liquidity that exists only exists for those better credits many of which fall in the telecom sector. This lack of liquidity is perpetuated by Dodd-Frank as banks and brokerages can now longer hold the large fixed income and equity positions on thier balance sheets if they wish to met Dodd-Frank requirements. As such they cannot bid for these high yielding securities. You can see the impact energy has had on the index by watching the high yield etf the HYG of which energy accounts for approximately 12% of the index.

If the Saudi's hold the line they will truly force more US and Canadian producers out of business. Production will eventually drop and demand will even out with supply. This will of course take time, in my opinion a year, however it could stretch out if economies continue to slow oil demand will continue to shrink and thus take all that much longer for supply to catch up. Remember the old axiom how much would you pay for that eleventh barrel of oil if demand is only ten barrels, answer not much.

In my opinion I don't let todays' rally fool me. I buy USO puts because the 2 day 12% rally in oil I feel is way overdone, we see $25 dollar oil before $35 and I buy HYG puts because the high yield index is going down.

Relative to card prices, they are going to fall. The publics' psyche will be damaged if this market drop continues and I think it will. I hope I am not kicking myself next week telling myself I could have saved myself a lot by lightening up today.

China can provide stimulus but I am guessing it will be seen as ineffectual in the eyes of U.S. investors as distrust grows and their market and monetary officials continue to fail in their attempt to design valid strategies.

Good luck.

[RGold]

h

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by RGold

h

Agreed.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I have no idea where the market is heading in the short term, but I will say that every single time I have looked at the financial news on the way up from Dow 6600 to Dow 18000 or however high it peaked at not so long ago, there have been links to economists preaching the apocalypse was just around the corner.

[4815162342]

[tschock]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I have no idea where the market is heading in the short term, but I will say that every single time I have looked at the financial news on the way up from Dow 6600 to Dow 18000 or however high it peaked at not so long ago, there have been links to economists preaching the apocalypse was just around the corner.

It's true! The problem is, no one knows how long the block is to the corner.

[Peter_Spaeth]

This guy has been preaching the end of America for years now.

http://www.dailywealth.com/2351/end-...ne-thing-wrong

[MattyC]

From the Memory Lane auction where the 8.5 of the '53T hit 96k to the 2.5 in Mile High last night to the current SGC 4 at Goldin, their appears to be no affect on Good Ol' Mick, who's a standard bearer for our hobby at large.

There's over a week left at Goldin and the SGC 4 is at ~36k with the juice.

SGC 4 example

Mile High 2.5 ended at 21.5.

Mile High 2.5 example

The 1969 Topps on eBay seems to be following the Mem Lane example.

From the private sale front, just had to sell a 56T in 7 to help pay for a 53T in 7. I paid a record for the latter and got a new record for the former.

More examples out there but gotta get back to work, SADLY.

[bbcard1]

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

Relative to card prices, they are going to fall. The publics' psyche will be damaged if this market drop continues and I think it will. I hope I am not kicking myself next week telling myself I could have saved myself a lot by lightening up today.

China can provide stimulus but I am guessing it will be seen as ineffectual in the eyes of U.S. investors as distrust grows and their market and monetary officials continue to fail in their attempt to design valid strategies.

Good luck.

The problem with the Saudi gambit is that they may end up bankrupting themselves. They have managed to "turn off" the fracking market, but it can be restarted quickly and easily. There are some stability problems I think i am more concerned about. Outside of tourism and some minerals, oil was a key Mexican export ...that's a country that doesn't need more problems.

I think it might have some effect on cards at the top end and some of the cards that have experienced a recent run-up. Honest, the price of average stuff...the VG-EX of ex stuff from the 50s and up have kind of stabilized. I doubt they will bump much for a while.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

The current equity market retreat is in my opinion serious. It's the first time since 2008-09 that respected market "gurus" have felt the responsibility to warn of what they see as a true structural change. Central banks can continue to add stimulus in the form of quantitative easing to stimulate their economies however their main stimulus tool (rate easing) is ineffectual as rates are at or near zero. Unfortunately, the oil collapse in the near term will manifest itself into something much more than lower gasoline and heating costs for consumers. The coming defaults by small and mid sized u.s. energy companies portends to be a bad omen. High yield is already slipping as investors rush to exit high yield mutual funds "better credits" are beginning to suffer as well as energy related high yield bonds. Portfolio mangers have to raise cash to meet redemptions and the little liquidity that exists only exists for those better credits many of which fall in the telecom sector. This lack of liquidity is perpetuated by Dodd-Frank as banks and brokerages can now longer hold the large fixed income and equity positions on thier balance sheets if they wish to met Dodd-Frank requirements. As such they cannot bid for these high yielding securities. You can see the impact energy has had on the index by watching the high yield etf the HYG of which energy accounts for approximately 12% of the index.

If the Saudi's hold the line they will truly force more US and Canadian producers out of business. Production will eventually drop and demand will even out with supply. This will of course take time, in my opinion a year, however it could stretch out if economies continue to slow oil demand will continue to shrink and thus take all that much longer for supply to catch up. Remember the old axiom how much would you pay for that eleventh barrel of oil if demand is only ten barrels, answer not much.

In my opinion I don't let todays' rally fool me. I buy USO puts because the 2 day 12% rally in oil I feel is way overdone, we see $25 dollar oil before $35 and I buy HYG puts because the high yield index is going down.

Relative to card prices, they are going to fall. The publics' psyche will be damaged if this market drop continues and I think it will. I hope I am not kicking myself next week telling myself I could have saved myself a lot by lightening up today.

China can provide stimulus but I am guessing it will be seen as ineffectual in the eyes of U.S. investors as distrust grows and their market and monetary officials continue to fail in their attempt to design valid strategies.

Good luck.

Some good comments about the Upstream part of the oil business, but what about the Downstream (refining) part of it? No matter the cost of oil, it still has to be refined to gasoline and other by products.

So, what happens when the cost of refining exceeds the cost of oil? Do you think the refineries would keep their doors open only to lose money? After all, plant operators/staff are paid pretty well.

I don't know the cost of refining, but I do know that no company in the world is going to stay in business long when their cost of production exceeds the cost of the end product.

IMO, that's where we're heading with oil if it continues to decline. The refineries would shut down (just temporarily) creating a gasoline shortage and there would be mass panic when people can't buy gasoline to get back and forth to work. Seem far fetched? Just look what happens after a hurricane or other disaster when people can't gasoline or supplies.

[iwantitiwinit]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Some good comments about the Upstream part of the oil business, but what about the Downstream (refining) part of it? No matter the cost of oil, it still has to be refined to gasoline and other by products.

So, what happens when the cost of refining exceeds the cost of oil? Do you think the refineries would keep their doors open only to lose money? After all, plant operators/staff are paid pretty well.

I don't know the cost of refining, but I do know that no company in the world is going to stay in business long when their cost of production exceeds the cost of the end product.

IMO, that's where we're heading with oil if it continues to decline. The refineries would shut down (just temporarily) creating a gasoline shortage and there would be mass panic when people can't buy gasoline to get back and forth to work. Seem far fetched? Just look what happens after a hurricane or other disaster when people can't gasoline or supplies.

Not too far fetched in my opinion but it will take time for that to occur. i'm worried about what happens in the nearer term 6-12 months out. Don't let today fool you be careful out there.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

Not too far fetched in my opinion but it will take time for that to occur. i'm worried about what happens in the nearer term 6-12 months out. Don't let today fool you be careful out there.

haha one day means nothing...all it means is the short sellers sold everything so they made their money....basically when the market goes up is when no one knows it will...and the opposite is usually true.....we shall see..don't be fooled that market will go down forever too....we shall see

[Peter_Spaeth]

I love how on any given day the news networks come up with these ridiculously oversimplified soundbites to explain that day's stock price movements. Investors worried about China. Traders shrug off budget woes. Housing report spooks investors. As if everyone's in it for a day only, and every market participant is part of a single massive group with a single emotion.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I love how on any given day the news networks come up with these ridiculously oversimplified soundbites to explain that day's stock price movements. Investors worried about China. Traders shrug off budget woes. Housing report spooks investors. As if everyone's in it for a day only, and every market participant is part of a single massive group with a single emotion.

I agree with you there....its almost as bad as not giving an assist to a guy when the guy he passed too made 2 FTs as a result of a foul....I just don't understand