Kris Bryant overrated?... too soon for they hype?

[Peter_Spaeth]

In hockey "they" (whoever they is) seem to know sometimes about a guy at a ridiculously young age, like early teens. That was true of Orr, and Gretzky, and Lemieux, and maybe Crosby.

[bn2cardz]

Right, so I don't understand why people invest so strongly in rookies.

Especially one with such a major flaw such as strikeouts. I would keep a Bryant if pulled from a pack if I didn't think his prices were so over inflated right now.

Instead the players I think worth investing/collecting are players like Trout, Goldschmidt, Cabrera, Ichiro, Cano, Beltre, Votto. These players have established careers or solid career starts and most of their cards are found for so much less than Bryant's (major exception is Trout).

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Right, so I don't understand why people invest so strongly in rookies.

Especially one with such a major flaw such as strikeouts. I would keep a Bryant if pulled from a pack if I didn't think his prices were so over inflated right now.

Instead the players I think worth investing/collecting are players like Trout, Goldschmidt, Cabrera, Ichiro, Cano, Beltre, Votto. These players have established careers or solid career starts and most of their cards are found for so much less than Bryant's (major exception is Trout).

I understand the upside for Cabrera, he could set records and be among the very top few players ever statistically, but other than Trout who is still quite young, what's the big upside for those other guys who are midway or most of the way through their career already?

[packs]

Ichiro I think will get incredibly difficult after his career is over. I bought a signed rookie this year and I expect it to get very pricey as soon as he retires. Of course that's assuming he moves to Japan.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I understand the upside for Cabrera, he could set records and be among the very top few players ever statistically, but other than Trout who is still quite young, what's the big upside for those other guys who are midway or most of the way through their career already?

Well since this is more a thread on Bryant I will summarize. They are all on what could be HOF tracks with low cost cards in comparison to each years new "it" rookie(s). Basically I find them to be closer to a "sure thing" than Bryant.

Cano - 11 years in and already HOFm 123. He has the 3rd highest SLG for 2nd basemen with at least 1500 games behind Hornsby and Kent. Yet non like Kent his defensive skills are top notch ranking 1st among active players in PO and Assists at 2B.

Goldschmidt - Only 5 years in but has an OPS+ of 151. 3 All star games, 2 gold gloves, 2 silver sluggers, and came in 2nd for MVP twice. He has lead twice in PO (for all positions), and twice was top 5 in home runs.

Beltre - with 18 seasons under his belt he ranks 3rd in WAR behind Pujols and ARod. While still not tapering off yet like the other two having put up a 7.0 and 5.8 the last two seasons and not getting below 5 since 2009. He has a top 5 AVG 5 times, top 5 SLG% 4 times while accumulating the top defensive WAR for active players.

Votto - 9 Seasons in he is ranked 6th in Active Slugging .534, and 5th in Active Average .311. He has lead in BB and OBP 4 times each. He also boasts a OPS+ of 156 (2nd behind Pujols, also good enough for 19th career). His 43.4 WAR ranks highest for players with less than 10 years.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I agree all very strong players (I had not realized Goldschmit was that young actually) but as they already established commodities I don't see why their cards would increase in value if they keep doing the same thing unless like Cabera they approach records or all time great status. I wholly agree with you on Bryant though, for every guy like him who busts out and becomes a superstar there are probably several who don't, so it's just speculation.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I agree all very strong players (I had not realized Goldschmit was that young actually) but as they already established commodities I don't see why their cards would increase in value if they keep doing the same thing unless like Cabera they approach records or all time great status. I wholly agree with you on Bryant though, for every guy like him who busts out and becomes a superstar there are probably several who don't, so it's just speculation.

I wasnt saying to invest because they would go up in value, I was saying now that they aren't "hot" rookies their card prices have settled down and have less chance of going down now. The biggest chance of them going up would be if they do get inducted or break some records, but if I am going to put money towards modern cards I would put it towards established players. I have no way of knowing if cards will go up in value, but I believe those players' cards are a better value.