What would happen if PSA went out of business?

[BeanTown]

So David what you are implying is that if PSA went out of business we would have bigger issues to worry about! Maybe a good comparison is IF the FDIC had to come in and pay you back money (under 250k) that your bank used because of the economy then we would all have bigger issues to worry about like the US Economy.

Factoid.. FDIC has up to 100 years to pay you back in that unlikely scenario.

Never liked Block Buster video either and with all the late fees on 2 day rentals was a JOKE! They considered it 2 days after 24 hours plus 1 minute. They closed sometimes at peak hours at night so when you returned your video, they could add the fee the next morning!

[PowderedH2O]

Jay, I had that exact experience. I was in the Air Force and HAD to report to work by 11:00 PM for my shift. No excuses. I dropped off several videos one night about 10:30 and when I went back a few days later to rent more was told that I had $8 in late fees. I placed my videos on the counter, and handed them my Blockbuster card and told them I was done. That was 1993, and I never went back.

[AGuinness]

Perhaps the bigger threat to PSA (or any TPG) is a scandal whereby their authentication process is undermined. If some sort of rampant pattern revealed a TPG were intentionally and deliberately grading forgeries, etc., that would be more damaging to the market for cards in their holders than a bankruptcy (but who knows how much more or less likely than a bankruptcy).

[drcy]

Irrelevant to the viability of the company itself, considering the plenitude of altered 'high grade' cards (which according to grading rules should prevent them even grading a poor), the future landscape and valuation for such cards may be different in the future.

Further, when collectors realize how often collectors resumbit and resubit and resumbit again to get different grades on the label for the exact same cards, it may dawn on many that investing in numbers is silly. Many people, including many here, already realize this, but many collectors still invest big bucks in the number on the label and the registry is predicated on the numbers.

I just expect that in the future that the numbers on the holders will be viewed and valuated differently than they are today.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by AGuinness

Perhaps the bigger threat to PSA (or any TPG) is a scandal whereby their authentication process is undermined.

Like grading a t206 Wagner KNOWING it was trimmed?

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Yes if PSA went out of business the hobby as we know it would be under serious distress and it wouldn't matter which third party grading company holder your card was in they would all be down.

LOL, this hobby thrived just fine w/o TPG grading and if every TPG went out of business tomorrow, the hobby would still be just as alive.

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Like grading a t206 Wagner KNOWING it was trimmed?

Yes, of course shady things have happened, like the Wagner. And Mastro has said alterations on high grade cards are common (I forget the quote or numbers he used). But to this point, I don't think the "common" aspect of his allegation is proved.

But my point is not that there isn't altered cards that have been graded (or forgeries). We have all seen examples, probably as recently as today in a post on this site, of graded cards that are accompanied not only by numbers, but by suspicions. To my knowledge, any suspicious cards beyond the Gretzky Wagner have not been consciously graded as unaltered despite knowledge by the grader that it was.

Even with Mastro's allegations, the market for high grade vintage does not seem to have been impacted. It's as hot as ever.

What I would see as a death knell is more of a systematic pattern of deception by that completely undermines their process, their products, their reputation and all their preceding work. So that graded VG 1965 Topps Tigers Rookies Roman/Brubaker, along with everything else the company has done, is suddenly questionable (at best).

Funny thing with the Wagner, and probably other cards of that ilk (both in alterations and prestige), is that I've read in places that people would be just as interested in acquiring it as they were before the trimming was confirmed as it makes for a great story.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Like grading a t206 Wagner KNOWING it was trimmed?



LOL, this hobby thrived just fine w/o TPG grading and if every TPG went out of business tomorrow, the hobby would still be just as alive.

I had to read this a few times to make sure I was reading what I thought I was reading.

I guess this makes two of us that are laughing because I can't fathom that one could think the hobby would be just as alive if third party grading went away. So much demand is built around the pursuit of value. Why do unopened boxes sell for what they do? Sure a peace of the value comes from nostalgia but the vast majority comes from the fact that there might be hidden treasures inside that can grade high.

PSA grades in the neighborhood of 1.6 million cards a year. A large percentage of those are for resale and if there wasn't grading prices wouldn't be anywhere near what they are and many of these cards wouldn't be bought in the first place.

No one needs a mint or gem mint card but because of grading and the value proposition that can follow it has breathed life back into the hobby. Not a day goes by that I don't read about record prices for HOF cards and guess what they are all graded. If grading goes away these prices aren't even remotely sustainable and as prices collapse so will interest.

It isn't just the registry stuff that would decline. There are plenty of cards that sell for many multiples from NM to NM-MT to Mint to Gem Mint. Sure there would be variance but you wouldn't see cards sell for 100 times more then another copy.

[Fred]

Let's assume that if PSA went out of business, then all PSA web functions would cease when PSA ceased to exist.

People would not be able to continue the insanity of trying to have the HIGHEST rated set in the universe. Nobody would know about it. Where would all the CU posters go for their daily dose of talking about who has/had the best set. Perhaps they join N54 and then they start arguing about it.

Maybe this could depress the price of cards. I sure wouldn't mind if that happened.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

I had to read this a few times to make sure I was reading what I thought I was reading.

I guess this makes two of us that are laughing because I can't fathom that one could think the hobby would be just as alive if third party grading went away. So much demand is built around the pursuit of value. Why do unopened boxes sell for what they do? Sure a peace of the value comes from nostalgia but the vast majority comes from the fact that there might be hidden treasures inside that can grade high.

PSA grades in the neighborhood of 1.6 million cards a year. A large percentage of those are for resale and if there wasn't grading prices wouldn't be anywhere near what they are and many of these cards wouldn't be bought in the first place.

No one needs a mint or gem mint card but because of grading and the value proposition that can follow it has breathed life back into the hobby. Not a day goes by that I don't read about record prices for HOF cards and guess what they are all graded. If grading goes away these prices aren't even remotely sustainable and as prices collapse so will interest.

It isn't just the registry stuff that would decline. There are plenty of cards that sell for many multiples from NM to NM-MT to Mint to Gem Mint. Sure there would be variance but you wouldn't see cards sell for 100 times more then another copy.

Yes, this hobby was absolutely dead before grading came along. How did it survive for so long? Thank goodness TPGs came along and saved our hobby.

[ALR-bishop]

I don't care. Been collecting since 1957 and have as few graded cards as possible. My collection is likely worth a lot but it has always been a hobby to me and my family will not need the money from my cards. That's the way a hobby should be.

Where is Doug when you need him ?

[Cozumeleno]

Originally Posted by AGuinness

Perhaps the bigger threat to PSA (or any TPG) is a scandal whereby their authentication process is undermined. If some sort of rampant pattern revealed a TPG were intentionally and deliberately grading forgeries, etc., that would be more damaging to the market for cards in their holders than a bankruptcy (but who knows how much more or less likely than a bankruptcy).

Completely agree - I'm not a registry person so can't speak to that part of it. But I have to believe that a PSA 5's prices aren't going to significantly drop just because the company stops grading cards. The registry stuff is probably a valid concern if no one would end up picking that up, but hypothetically, I think the values would mostly hold up pretty well.

[pclpads]

PRO would corner the market.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

So David what you are implying is that if PSA went out of business we would have bigger issues to worry about! Maybe a good comparison is IF the FDIC had to come in and pay you back money (under 250k) that your bank used because of the economy then we would all have bigger issues to worry about like the US Economy.

Factoid.. FDIC has up to 100 years to pay you back in that unlikely scenario.

Never liked Block Buster video either and with all the late fees on 2 day rentals was a JOKE! They considered it 2 days after 24 hours plus 1 minute. They closed sometimes at peak hours at night so when you returned your video, they could add the fee the next morning!

Yes if PSA went out of business the hobby as we know it would be under serious distress and it wouldn't matter which third party grading company holder your card was in they would all be down. At this point it is hard to call the card grading business an oligopoly and in reality it is more like a monopoly. Losing the flagship enterprise doesn't happen without a serious downturn in demand.

If one is to worry about potential price declines from a grading company no longer doing business it is far more likely that the number two or three player would leave the market with the size share they each have. In the case of SGC they are obviously viewed as legitimate and there are some very expensive cards in their holders. I would think they would take a little hit but many are already trading in a second tier position based on price so I wouldn't think it would be catastrophic. I do believe if BGS went out of business that their cards would take a serious hit as many would want to cross them over and once it became clear to more collectors that their chances are quite low of an equal or higher grade the spread would widen further. Let's face it many modern cards have plenty of supply but are differentiated by grade. That would impact them significantly where SGC has many actually rare cards in any condition in their holders so if the market remained somewhat healthy the interest in those cards wouldn't die.