How much should I spend on a 1952 topps psa 1 Mantle?

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by begsu1013

lou,

I agree 100% and wholeheartedly. but i think we all have certain cards in our collection that we paid well over the norm because of certain sentimental reasons behind that particular card/year/player and the avg price/investment side wasn't really of concern.

i also think there's been a little more focus by collectors on the actual card these days vs the actual flip. which is a good thing, imo.

we are seeing nice 52 4's selling for $35K+ and crap 5s still not breaking $30K, however a few years ago it'd almost be taboo to pay more for any 4 than what a 5 had previously sold for.

I agree with this post 100%. Especially when it comes to collectors being all about the specific, actual card, which is increasingly the case these days.

I feel that when it comes to iconic key cards especially, it's almost as if the population of all examples can be parsed into two discrete pools: the really nice ones for any grade and the "average" ones. The cards that fit in the former category are in effect rare, in terms of how nice they look, the eye appeal they provide their owners, and these cards have their own unique behavior, selling for large premiums.

As Bob said, a dead centered 3 will sell in a blink for 24k with people clamoring for it. A "meh" 3 won't move at 17k. Same goes proportionately across all grades. This is personally always how I have shopped.

When it comes to the 1952 Topps Mantle, how many of the existing graded population are actually really great looking-- in terms of not tilted, or nicely centered, or no blemishes in the blue background? 1 in 10? 1 in 20? Fewer than that? (Even some of the very high graded examples have tilt and their centering is right on the edge for the technical grade assigned.) Then let's compare the amount of really nice ones to the demand for such examples...

For those seeking a lower graded #311, say in the technical grade and thus price range of 4 and below-- how many of the #311s in grades 1 to 4 do we really think are those "special" or freakishly "high-end" cards like that famous 3 that sold a little ways back? Probably only a handful of gorgeous examples in that grade range, which makes those cards very unique, to me. I'd expect the competition for a gorgeous 1 or 2 at auction to be outrageously fierce.