How much should I spend on a 1952 topps psa 1 Mantle?

[begsu1013]

Originally Posted by vic84

I'm in the hunt for mantle RC and seems like the psa 1 and below is all I can afford. How much should I pay on a psa 1 ? I seen a lot but all are different prices.

psa 1s can be had for $900 - $2500 depending on eye appeal, of course im talking about the rc you referenced and the 51 bowman. a much better looking card in my opinion and you're not really paying for the hype.

[KCRfan1]

Originally Posted by begsu1013

psa 1s can be had for $900 - $2500 depending on eye appeal, of course im talking about the rc you referenced and the 51 bowman. a much better looking card in my opinion and you're not really paying for the hype.

But will the savings between the Bowman compared to Topps translate into better returns in the future? The prices for the 52 Topps Mantle continue to go up, can the same be said for the 51 Bowman and expect that card to keep pace with Mantles Topps card? I'm not sure the hype behind the 52 Topps Mantle will ever go away, really don't see much hype behind the Bowman card though. ROI for the Topps card seems greater than the Bowman card. Or am I missing something?

[begsu1013]

i wasn't clear that he was buying for investment purposes.

as for investment purposes though, we have to establish time frames here for a proper debate...

we talking 6 months or are we talking 10 years?

and we are only talking about psa 1's, correct?

do psa A's count as psa 1s? they do on the registry...

and then are we talking ROI in percentages or are we talking dollars?

are we establishing the overall risk of the investment? $2K is a much easier hit vs $20K.


not only that, I can not say w/ any certainty that we are in a bubble on the 52. some can argue that fairly easily.

as a owner, i certainly hope the strong prices continue to rise.

however, as a buyer i sure hope they plummet.

i'm honestly good either way.

and one good asteroid could make the whole thing moot, anyways.

[KCRfan1]

Bob, I'm not sure he's buying for investment purposes, but I think it needs to be taken into account as part of the decision process.

[begsu1013]

Originally Posted by KCRfan1

Bob, I'm not sure he's buying for investment purposes, but I think it needs to be taken into account as part of the decision process.

lou,

I agree 100% and wholeheartedly. but i think we all have certain cards in our collection that we paid well over the norm because of certain sentimental reasons behind that particular card/year/player and the avg price/investment side wasn't really of concern.

i also think there's been a little more focus by collectors on the actual card these days vs the actual flip. which is a good thing, imo.

we are seeing nice 52 4's selling for $35K+ and crap 5s still not breaking $30K, however a few years ago it'd almost be taboo to pay more for any 4 than what a 5 had previously sold for.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by begsu1013

lou,

I agree 100% and wholeheartedly. but i think we all have certain cards in our collection that we paid well over the norm because of certain sentimental reasons behind that particular card/year/player and the avg price/investment side wasn't really of concern.

i also think there's been a little more focus by collectors on the actual card these days vs the actual flip. which is a good thing, imo.

we are seeing nice 52 4's selling for $35K+ and crap 5s still not breaking $30K, however a few years ago it'd almost be taboo to pay more for any 4 than what a 5 had previously sold for.

I agree with this post 100%. Especially when it comes to collectors being all about the specific, actual card, which is increasingly the case these days.

I feel that when it comes to iconic key cards especially, it's almost as if the population of all examples can be parsed into two discrete pools: the really nice ones for any grade and the "average" ones. The cards that fit in the former category are in effect rare, in terms of how nice they look, the eye appeal they provide their owners, and these cards have their own unique behavior, selling for large premiums.

As Bob said, a dead centered 3 will sell in a blink for 24k with people clamoring for it. A "meh" 3 won't move at 17k. Same goes proportionately across all grades. This is personally always how I have shopped.

When it comes to the 1952 Topps Mantle, how many of the existing graded population are actually really great looking-- in terms of not tilted, or nicely centered, or no blemishes in the blue background? 1 in 10? 1 in 20? Fewer than that? (Even some of the very high graded examples have tilt and their centering is right on the edge for the technical grade assigned.) Then let's compare the amount of really nice ones to the demand for such examples...

For those seeking a lower graded #311, say in the technical grade and thus price range of 4 and below-- how many of the #311s in grades 1 to 4 do we really think are those "special" or freakishly "high-end" cards like that famous 3 that sold a little ways back? Probably only a handful of gorgeous examples in that grade range, which makes those cards very unique, to me. I'd expect the competition for a gorgeous 1 or 2 at auction to be outrageously fierce.