December Pick ups

[Shoebox]

Thank you Jason. You are correct that 58 was the first year Topps introduced the AS subset. It was a thread on this board that inspired me to start putting it together. I have a few that I couldn't locate in SGC holders that I picked up raw and will submit so decided to spring for a raw version of the Mantle to finish it out. I am extremely unfocused in my purchasing so it feels good to actually complete a project for once!

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Hot Springs Bathers

Bill- Stan Musial gave Simmons a great deal of credit for teaching him how to hit. The two spent a lot of time together in the Spring here in Hot Springs. Two years ago we erected plaques for each of them side by side on our Historic Baseball Trail. The two plaques went up in front of St. Mary's Catholic Church where they started each day with early mass.

Mike, that's really cool. I was unaware of the connection between Simmons and Stan The Man. Stories like that really enhance my love for the game's history. Thank you for sharing. Should you happen to get a snapshot of the plaques, I'd like to see them.

Being a lover of the game has been rough the last few decades with the steroid scandals. However, I think we're starting to see the younger generation of players take control now. The public backlash seems to have made a real impression on the "kids" playing today, and I think these guys are playing the game clean. Mike Trout is one guy I just love watching. He's the all American kid, and the early comparisons to Mickey Mantle look better and better with each passing year. He plays the game right, and he has an appreciation for those that played the game before him. I love hearing that. Though I'm a Brewers fan first, and a Pirates fan second, I'll cheer for that young man any time I see him play. If he's become the face of baseball, that's great for the game. He couldn't have come along at a better time.

Originally Posted by jason.1969

Bill, you are like the unofficial baseball historian and stat guy of N54. I feel like I just read a really nice Nellie Fox piece from you as well. And how could I ever forget that one you did on how overrated Chuck Klein was, just after I posted my pickup of his 1940 Playball. (And yes, I'm teasing you on that last one!)

One thing I'd love your take on is Dave Concepcion being the perennial NL AS at shortstop for pretty much my entire childhood. Do you think he was in fact the best, or merely benefitting from being part of the Big Red Machine? And who would be your top 3 NL shortstops post-Banks and pre-Ozzie?

Thanks!

Thank you, Jason. I'm the resident stat nerd, I think.

I should clarify my opinion on Chuck Klein, because I did a rather poor job doing so in the discussion you referred to.

Chuck Klein was a sensational player. Is he deserving of inclusion in the Hall of Fame? Yes, I think so. Obviously, Klein's statistics were enhanced by playing his home games at the Baker Bowl (and he was certainly not alone in this regard. Look at Lefty O'Doul's 1929 season. He hit .398 for the season, overall. His .344 mark on the road was still outstanding, but hitting .453 at home won him the batting title). But Klein showed early on in his career that he was a great player regardless of where he was taking his cuts.

1929, Klein's first full season in the Bigs. He's 24 years old, and hits .356 for the season with 43 HR and 145 RBIs. He was 11th in the MVP. Klein was great both at home and on the road that season. He hit .391 with 25 HR and 78 RBI at home. Away from the Baker Bowl, Klein hit .321 with 18 HR and 67 RBI. If you project his road stats over the course of a whole season, he'd have still been an MVP candidate hitting .321 with 36 HR and 134 RBI.

In his second season of 1930, we start seeing some deviation in his splits. For the season, Chuck Klein hit .386 with 40 HR and 170 RBI. He scored 158 runs, had 250 hits, 59 doubles, and 8 triples. 107 extra base hits and 445 total bases is an MVP season in any era. But proportionally, he did more damage at home. He hit a whopping .439 with 26 HR and 109 RBI while in Philly. On the road, he hit .332 with 27 doubles, 5 triples, 14 HR and 61 RBI. Again, if you take his road stats, and project them over a full season, hitting .332 with 54 doubles, 10 triples, 28 HR and 122 RBI is still an MVP-caliber season. 92 extra base hits would represent elite production in Ted Williams' day, or in Willie Mays' day. Two and a half years into his career, Klein is a Hall of Famer in the making, and his splits, while slightly favoring his play at home, are still rock solid across the board.

The problem I have when looking at Klein's statistics is the more he got into his career, the better he seemed to do at home, while his performance on the road slipped. Was this Klein's suddenly forgetting how to hit a baseball away from the Baker Bowl. I think not. Rather, I hypothesize that when a great hitter plays a majority of their games in one place, they start to develop tendencies that will give them the greatest chance of success in the most games. I haven't played organized baseball since I was 16 years old, but I can imagine that if you establish habits to one extreme (like dead pull hitting at home), those habits would be awfully difficult to break, or compensate for, when playing elsewhere. This is pure speculation on my part, but common sense dictates that there is at least some likelihood that this happened. He was still an extra base hit machine: between 1931 and 1933, he amassed 128 doubles, 32 triples, and 97 round trippers.

In 1932, Klein hit .348 with 37 HR and 137 RBI. He hit .423 with 29 HR and 97 RBI at home, and .266 with 9 HR and 40 RBI on the road. 1932 is the season he won the MVP, and I don't think he should have won the Award. Why? Because of his split differential. He hit 157 points higher at home than he did on the road. He still played ok when taking the train (60 runs scored, 24 doubles, and 8 triples, giving him a line of .266 with 120 runs scored, 48 doubles, 16 triples, 18 HR and 80 RBI when projected over a full season-still an All Star, but not an MVP candidate). And, in 1933, his split deviation was even more dramatic. He was the MVP runner up, hitting .368 (leading the NL), with 28 HR and 120 RBI. But look at this: he hit .467 at home (133 hits in 285 at bats) at home with a 1.305 OPS, and .280 with a .774 OPS on the road. That's a 187 point difference. Again, he wasn't a bad player on the road, as hitting .280 in 1933, or in any era, would be above average. But it wasn't typical for Klein. The fall off at that age is dramatic. His road numbers: .280, 39 runs, 16 doubles, 5 triples, 8 home runs, 39 RBI aren't very good. Taken over a whole season, that's .280 AVG, 78 runs scored, 32 doubles, 10 triples, 16 HR and 78 RBI. Atypical for a man in his late twenties, especially as the reigning league MVP. Now, one thing must be said when simply extending road numbers out for any season in this fashion. If we eliminate the 314 plate appearances Klein had at the Baker Bowl in 1933, he'd have played home games somewhere else, right? And, regardless of where those home games would have been played, he'd have tailored his play to best suit that home park. We saw him do it early in his career. He'd have done it again. If he played 78 games that year at Wrigley Field, Sportsman's Park, or Ebbets Field, he'd have become more comfortable playing there as the season progressed, meaning those numbers I just approximated would have improved.

In 1934, Klein was shipped off to the Cubs, and that was the last time he was an All Star at any point in his career. He did play at Wrigley. He hit .301 with 20 HR and 80 RBI for the season--clearly not up to his usual standards, but still very good. His Hall of Fame candidacy was built, essentially, off of his 1929 to 1933 run. Five seasons. But what a five seasons. The numbers he put up in that span may never be matched again: a 162 game average of 141 runs scored, 239 hits, 50 doubles, 10 triples, 39 HR, 148 RBI, and a 1.050 OPS. Klein ended with a career .320 AVG in large part because he fell off a cliff in 1938 at age 33. Between 1938 an 1944, covering a span of 1,386 plate appearances, Klein was a .236 hitter. His OPS over that time frame was only .670. But in his first ten seasons, he was a .340 hitter.

The point I want to make from all this is that Chuck Klein was a great player, and if I diminished his abilities in my earlier post, I really didn't communicate what I was trying to say very well. No matter what field he played his home games in, he was still hitting Major League pitching well enough to drive the ball out of the park. It would be unrealistic to think that pitchers of that era were unaware of the disproportionate ballpark dimensions they faced when playing in Philadelphia. They knew that left handed power hitters would be murder against them when playing in the Baker Bowl. Yet outside of Klein and O'Doul, nobody else in Philly was really destroying the ball. If it was so easy, why weren't more hitters doing the same thing? Could it be that Klein was just a great player whose great play further benefited from the park he played in? Another thing to consider when looking at Klein's career: the Phillies were terrible during Klein's magical run. Look at their records:

1928, 43-109
1929, 71-82
1930, 52-102
1931, 66-88
1932, 78-76
1933, 60-92

370 wins, 549 losses. The Phillies had a .403 winning percentage when Klein was at his very best. So, while he did see a statistical bump from his home ballpark, we also need to remember that there wasn't a hell of a lot of talent around him. In 1930, he drove in 170 runs. He hit 40 home runs, so he drove in his teammates 130 times. Outside of O'Doul, who else did the Phillies have? Don Hurst had some real nice seasons, but nobody would mistake the Phillies of the early 1930s for Murders Row. Chuck Klein, however, was a great player who realized what he needed to do to thrive as an offensive force. And he managed to continue hitting despite losing consistently.

Klein is a deserving Hall of Famer. In future discussions, I would only advise that analysis of his numbers be tempered somewhat with the knowledge of where he played a large portion of his game. But that should not diminish his greatness.

[the 'stache]

Now, getting to your question of shortstops in the National League during Dave Concepcion's run of All Star selections.

Dave made the All Star team nine times in a ten year period between 1973 and 1982. Any statistics I post will be obtained within this time frame.

First, a look at the men who were voted to the N.L. All Star squad at shortstop during this ten year run (starters listed first). Typically, two or three shortstops were selected each year, so Concepcion, even when he did get a nod, did not go alone.

1973: Chris Speirer, Concepcion, Bill Russell
1974: Larry Bowa, Don Kessinger, Speirer
1975: Concepcion, Bowa
1976: Concepcion, Bowa, Russell
1977: Concepcion, Gary Templeton
1978: Bowa, Concepcion
1979: Bowa, Concepcion, Craig Reynolds, Templeton
1980: Russell, Concepcion
1981: Concepcion, Ozzie Smith
1982: Concepcion, Smith

If I assign 2 points for each starting nod, and 1 point for every reserve selection, the points break down this way:

Concepcion 14
Bowa 8
Russell 4
Speirer 3
Templeton 2
Smith 2
Kessinger 1
Reynolds 1

Concepcion was by far the most selected shortstop, and started in five of ten seasons. That, however, does not directly correlate to worthiness. Let's look at total WAR by shortstop, as well as offensive WAR and defensive WAR. I'll include also the years the individual shortstops played.

Concepcion, 1973-1982. 37.0 WAR, 30.7 oWAR, 14.8 dWAR
Bill Russell, 1973 to 1982. 22.5 WAR, 15.3 oWAR, 15.6 dWAR
Gary Templeton, 1976 to 1982. 21.3 WAR, 18.4 oWAR, 7.9 dWAR
Larry Bowa, 1973-1982. 16.3 WAR, 14.5 oWAR, 10.5 dWAR
Ozzie Smith 1978-1982. 15.9 WAR, 8.0 oWAR, 12.3 dWAR
Chris Speirer 1973-1982. 15.7 WAR, 14.2 oWAR, 9.8 dWAR

By WAR, Dave Concepcion is the clear front runner at the position. A 5.0 WAR is considered All Star level, and Concepcion averaged a 4.6 WAR per 650 plate appearances. So, he was, on average, playing at a near All Star level each season for a decade.

What about the others? How did they perform by WAR on a weighted basis?

Gary Templeton, 4.2 WAR per 650 PA.
Ozzie Smith, 3.8 WAR per 650 PA.
Bill Russell, 3.1 WAR per 650 PA.
Chris Speirer, 2.4 WAR per 650 PA.
Larry Bowa, 2.3 WAR per 650 PA.

Actual statistics per 162 games played:

Concepcion, .282 AVG, 75 R, 174 H, 34 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 76 RBI, 25 SB, 8 CS, .723 OPS
Templeton, .296 AVG, 99 R, 200 H, 29 2B, 15 3B, 6 HR, 66 RBI, 32 SB, 19 CS, .725 OPS
Smith, .234 AVG, 73 R, 143 H, 20 2B, 5 3B, 1 HR, 39 RBI, 39 SB, 12 CS, .588 OPS
Russell, .268 AVG, 64 R, 160 H, 25 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 54 RBI, 13 SB, 6 SB, .652 OPS
Speirer, .246 AVG, 56 R, 135 H, 24 2B, 5 3B, 8 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, 4 CS, .672 OPS
Bowa, .267 AVG, 77 R, 169 H, 20 2B, 8 3B, 2 HR, 42 RBI, 26 SB, 8 CS, .633 OPS

I think it's clear that Dave Concepcion was the best shortstop in the National League during this ten year period. He offered the best combination of offense and defense. Who was second best? I'd say Gary Templeton, hands down. If we omit his 1982 season at the plate, from 1976 to 1981, he was a .305 hitter, putting up 101 runs and 207 hits, along with 16 triples and 32 home runs per 162 games played. That's pretty sensational production from the position. And he was no slouch with the glove, either, averaging 1.9 dWAR per 650 PA. He didn't win a Gold Glove, but put up some pretty strong numbers. He had a 1.7 dWAR in 1978 and 1980, a 1.6 in 1981, and a 1.5 in 1982. His best season with the glove was in 1987, when he put up a 2.3 dWAR. For comparison purposes, Ozzie Smith typically put up between 2.5 and 3.5 dWAR each season.

After Templeton, it's a bit of a crap shoot. Ozzie Smith averaged a 3.1 dWAR per 650 PA's during this period, but he was terrible offensively with that .588 OPS. Interestingly, between 1978 and 1982, Ozzie Smith had as many stolen bases (177) as he did RBIs.

I would rank the shortstops in this era (pre Ozzie Smith):
Dave Concepcion
Gary Templeton
Bill Russell
Larry Bowa

And, to answer the question originally postulated, no, I don't think Dave Concepcion received his numerous All Star nominations simply because he was a member of the Big Red Machine. He was the class of his position in the National League. If I needed a guy to man the shortstop position between 1973 and 1979, Dave Concepcion was the best there was in the N.L., though I may have taken Templeton in 1977. In 1980, Templeton was the best. In 1981, Concepcion was again the best, and in 1982, Ozzie Smith came into his own with a 5.0 WAR, in large part due to his 3.4 dWAR. He still wasn't hitting, but that would soon change, as Smith would start hitting in the .270s and better. By 1989, he was putting up an MVP level WAR of 7.3, with a spectacular 4.7 dWAR.

Of course, in the American League, Robin Yount, Alan Trammell and Cal Ripken Jr were about to change what was possible with the position, as they combined the offensive capabilities of Ernie Banks with great defense.