Mantle Avalanche

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

I think in 5=10 years we will say who would of thought psa 6's would go for 30k after seeing them go for 60-130k...housing bubble all over again....I know if I bought one it would be with the intention of selling it in a year or two to 'flip' it...no way I hold for years and years..

I disagree. I buy them, and intend to hold mine til I croak. This is because I buy things to collect and enjoy, not to worry over what they might cost in a decade, especially based on internet prognostications. So I'll take the sure thing of the decade of sheer enjoyment over the maybe scenario from the internet guy. Some of us actually get great enjoyment from cards, and would never part with a favorite piece because of what it may cost in 10 years.

As to the monetary side of things, there are decades of history now that show the 52T Mantle appreciating in price over the long haul, peppered with occasional surges. So if I am betting, I am weighting that long history most, and deem it more likely to continue, rather than it breaking for what would be an unprecedented anomalous event.

[Sean1125]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I disagree. I buy them, and intend to hold mine til I croak. This is because I buy things to collect and enjoy, not to worry over what they might cost in a decade, especially based on internet prognostications. So I'll take the sure thing of the decade of sheer enjoyment over the maybe scenario from the internet guy. Some of us actually get great enjoyment from cards, and would never part with a favorite piece because of what it may cost in 10 years.

As to the monetary side of things, there are decades of history now that show the 52T Mantle appreciating in price over the long haul, peppered with occasional surges. So if I am betting, I am weighting that long history most, and deem it more likely to continue, rather than it breaking for what would be an unprecedented anomalous event.

I'll hold them after you croak

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I disagree. I buy them, and intend to hold mine til I croak. This is because I buy things to collect and enjoy, not to worry over what they might cost in a decade, especially based on internet prognostications. So I'll take the sure thing of the decade of sheer enjoyment over the maybe scenario from the internet guy. Some of us actually get great enjoyment from cards, and would never part with a favorite piece because of what it may cost in 10 years.

As to the monetary side of things, there are decades of history now that show the 52T Mantle appreciating in price over the long haul, peppered with occasional surges. So if I am betting, I am weighting that long history most, and deem it more likely to continue, rather than it breaking for what would be an unprecedented anomalous event.

I hope there are 1000s of collectors like you that would be GREAT for the hobby..but time will tell...if we see Mantles hitting the market that were bought a year or two ago we know those aren't collectors like you..

[rats60]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

I hope there are 1000s of collectors like you that would be GREAT for the hobby..but time will tell...if we see Mantles hitting the market that were bought a year or two ago we know those aren't collectors like you..

There was no shortage in the last Heritage auction.

[MetsBaseball1973]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I disagree. I buy them, and intend to hold mine til I croak. This is because I buy things to collect and enjoy, not to worry over what they might cost in a decade, especially based on internet prognostications. So I'll take the sure thing of the decade of sheer enjoyment over the maybe scenario from the internet guy. Some of us actually get great enjoyment from cards, and would never part with a favorite piece because of what it may cost in 10 years.

As to the monetary side of things, there are decades of history now that show the 52T Mantle appreciating in price over the long haul, peppered with occasional surges. So if I am betting, I am weighting that long history most, and deem it more likely to continue, rather than it breaking for what would be an unprecedented anomalous event.

Well said. +1.

I think many folks, like myself, want one or have wanted one with much desire, but the card has taken another of its periodical "surges" you mention.

When one misses the boat like this, a human being has two ways they can react (of course among others)...

One choice is to work harder to try and obtain one ASAP.

The other choice is to soothe oneself by saying, "The card price is gonna crash, so I'm actually happy that I can't get one right now."

I am not deluding myself. The card is an icon to any baseball card collector, and even "hobby outsiders" I have met greet that card with a pure smile.

I am choosing to work harder and one day get one.

I think to wait ten years or even five for something I love-- when life can be nasty, brutish, and short, as the saying goes---- is folly. Especially when realizing that history, lots of history, says the card---- and undoubtedly its nicer specimens in each and every grade---- will keep rising in price. Especially when the view that prices will suddenly come down out of nowhere in ten years is likely (in my own opinion, thinking from a psychology point of view) a view that comes from a place of not having what one desires.

In summation, I tip my cap to those who already own one (a double tip of the cap if the card is even partially centered!). It must give you gentlemen much pleasure to hold and look at. I will know that pleasure soon.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by MetsBaseball1973

Well said. +1.

I think many folks, like myself, want one or have wanted one with much desire, but the card has taken another of its periodical "surges" you mention.

When one misses the boat like this, a human being has two ways they can react (of course among others)...

One choice is to work harder to try and obtain one ASAP.

The other choice is to soothe oneself by saying, "The card price is gonna crash, so I'm actually happy that I can't get one right now."

I am not deluding myself. The card is an icon to any baseball card collector, and even "hobby outsiders" I have met greet that card with a pure smile.

I am choosing to work harder and one day get one.

I think to wait ten years or even five for something I love-- when life can be nasty, brutish, and short, as the saying goes---- is folly. Especially when realizing that history, lots of history, says the card---- and undoubtedly its nicer specimens in each and every grade---- will keep rising in price. Especially when the view that prices will suddenly come down out of nowhere in ten years is likely (in my own opinion, thinking from a psychology point of view) a view that comes from a place of not having what one desires.

In summation, I tip my cap to those who already own one (a double tip of the cap if the card is even partially centered!). It must give you gentlemen much pleasure to hold and look at. I will know that pleasure soon.

yeah like you said there are more ways to react than just two.......but prices just don't continue to come up or you cant assume that ...I remember they said that about real estate.....there is a thing called price adjustment...anyway we shall see in 5-10 years......you can post something on the that time capsule thread I started and open it 10 years from now and can show how you were right..

[pokerplyr80]

I think with recent prices you will start to see more pop up that people had bought purely for investment purposes. Only time will tell if the market can sustain these prices, but I can't imagine they will keep this pace up. Anyone who bought a centered 5 or better more than a year ago has to be pretty happy right now.

[Delray Vintage]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

I think with recent prices you will start to see more pop up that people had bought purely for investment purposes. Only time will tell if the market can sustain these prices, but I can't imagine they will keep this pace up. Anyone who bought a centered 5 or better more than a year ago has to be pretty happy right now.

These rapid escalations are never sustainable. Yes, it seems like now everyone must own a 52 Mantle and therefore the price can only rise. We know that is how bubbles occur. Of course the Mantle is worth what someone will pay for it until the bubble pops. You have to wonder who will be the one losing a ton of money on a 150k PSA 6 which it seems will happen soon. We can all say we are in it for the joy of collecting but I want joy and a good investment. Loving my 52 at a good acquisition price will give me more joy than seeing it drop 50% in the next recession. Just saying be careful my collecting friends because crazy price rises are just that, crazy.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

These rapid escalations are never sustainable. Yes, it seems like now everyone must own a 52 Mantle and therefore the price can only rise. We know that is how bubbles occur. Of course the Mantle is worth what someone will pay for it until the bubble pops. You have to wonder who will be the one losing a ton of money on a 150k PSA 6 which it seems will happen soon. We can all say we are in it for the joy of collecting but I want joy and a good investment. Loving my 52 at a good acquisition price will give me more joy than seeing it drop 50% in the next recession. Just saying be careful my collecting friends because crazy price rises are just that, crazy.

People probably said the same thing went it went from 1K to 3K, whenever that was.

[Delray Vintage]

Anytime a price jumps about 500% in 5 years with inflation being about 10% , it is a strange economic phenomenon. In 2010 the PSA 6 was about 18-20k. The 7 was about 35. Yes, obviously demand has increased enough to bid up the price 500%. Anytime you have such a rapid rise, it is important to ask why and is it a rationale investment. It seems we are in the classic argument made during bubbles. That is "I better buy now because in a year the price will double." Since no one can ever predict exactly when a bubble will burst it could be a PSA 7 will sell for 300k in a year, or 75k if it pops.

If investors are the ones buying and bidding up the price, then they will be the first to panic and sell if we hit hard economic times. Collectors will hold a lot longer but no one wants to take a bath. Just my two cents on the Mantle mania.

[Sean]

Originally Posted by MetsBaseball1973

Well said. +1.

I think many folks, like myself, want one or have wanted one with much desire, but the card has taken another of its periodical "surges" you mention.

When one misses the boat like this, a human being has two ways they can react (of course among others)...

One choice is to work harder to try and obtain one ASAP.

The other choice is to soothe oneself by saying, "The card price is gonna crash, so I'm actually happy that I can't get one right now."

I am not deluding myself. The card is an icon to any baseball card collector, and even "hobby outsiders" I have met greet that card with a pure smile.

I am choosing to work harder and one day get one.

I think to wait ten years or even five for something I love-- when life can be nasty, brutish, and short, as the saying goes---- is folly. Especially when realizing that history, lots of history, says the card---- and undoubtedly its nicer specimens in each and every grade---- will keep rising in price. Especially when the view that prices will suddenly come down out of nowhere in ten years is likely (in my own opinion, thinking from a psychology point of view) a view that comes from a place of not having what one desires.

In summation, I tip my cap to those who already own one (a double tip of the cap if the card is even partially centered!). It must give you gentlemen much pleasure to hold and look at. I will know that pleasure soon.

Mr. Mets, you remind me of myself 13 years ago when I was thinking about a T206 Plank. I just missed a PSA 3 that sold for $12k. I decided to go harder for the next one...and the next and the next ... but I finally got one.

It was the best collecting move I ever made. If I had waited for the price to drop? Well, that same PSA 3 that I missed is selling around $70k today. So good luck getting the Mantle, and once you get it I hope that you enjoy it as much as I enjoy my Plank.