When to know the hobby is DIEing!

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

I think you need to do some studying in other collectible fields, Jake. Coins would be a good one, since that field became an organized hobby 120 years before cards did, and the development in the baseball card field has virtually duplicated what occurred in coins in every significant respect, including the gradual development of interest in variations and TPG (PCGS is owned by the same entity as PSA, and came into being several years earlier than the latter). Read some of Q. David Bowers' books--he is reknowned and universally respected in the field as both dealer (he started in his teens) and author and/or collaborator in many, many important coin books. The same sentiment of "the sky is falling, the sky is falling," was expressed many times in that hobby's history, and guess what? It is not only alive and well, but forging forward quite strongly, setting new price records for innumerable issues, not just a few. Those that have fallen back in price are and have been that which attract speculators/investors, namely relatively common pieces in ultra-high grade. Truly scarce to rare items for which the demand originates with true collectors have pretty much proceeded upwards in value in an almost linear fashion. Don't believe me? Get a copy of the coin collectors red book, a yearly publication quite comparable to our Standard Catalog, and some from past years or decades, if you can. You will see that many, many of these truly collectible coins not only maintain a value in 4 figures on up, but consistently increase. True, the so-called " trophy items" in coins, which are deemed exceedingly rare/and or significant (and which are comparable to just a few of the examples I gave in cards) have shown considerably higher rates of appreciation and current value, but that's the name of the game now, always has been, and always will be: value = rare and significant in the best condition you can find or afford. Check out the redbook--you will see that virtually every great rarity in coins--and there are more than just a few--is well up into 5-7 figures, dollar-wise. A 1913 Liberty Head Nickel (just five struck on the sly by mint employees) sold for $5 million + not long ago. 1804 silver dollars are valued in excess of $1 million, with 15 known examples through different strikings.

Or, if you like, study what has occurred in the area of collectible automobiles. Carrol Shelby's five Cobra Daytona Coupes, raced at Le Mans, could have been had--all of them, total--for $12,000 in the late '60's. Now, each and every one of them is valued in the seven figure range. And that certainly is not an isolated example. The early '60's Ferrari GT 250 is a $30-$40 million dollar car all day long, every day, at any significant auction. And people don't drive them--they're too valuable. They are simply collectibles like the one's we pursue. Another example? Take the 1967 Chevrolet Corvettes with the 427 cubic inch, 435 horsepower motor. They made made an adequate number, but from the time it could be purchased in the '80's for $6,000 or so it continued to rise in value until now, the best condition examples command $150 to $200K. A 1971 LS 6 Corvette (454 motor, 425 horsepower), of which GM made 188, could have been had in the $8,000 range in 1979 (I know--I was offered one that was in tremendous condition then, but somehow turned it down when I could have bought it--darn!!!) is now $150,000. 1971 Hemi convertibles--a terrible car--nose heavy, and prone to shimmying and shaking without the rigidity of a coupe, is now a $3 million dollar car. Why? They made just 12 of them, and while all '64-71 Hemi's are quite valuable, the '71 convertible Cuda is King because it is the one to have. 1969-70 Boss 429 Mustangs (something like 1,000 to 2,000 made over those two years) is a quarter of a million dollar car. I rode in a friend of mine's in the '80, which he bought as an investment somewhere in the $12 to $17K range.

Objects of history, significant in their own field, become valuable BECAUSE PEOPLE LIKE THEM, AND THEY'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO LIKE THEM! Prices have risen on some of the most desirable items because collectors just like us, but with a net worth of many, many millions of $$$ have been drawn to the hobby too. As I said earlier, demand for true collector's items is like a pyramid, but with ledges--the higher the value of any given item, the taller the pyramid. While it is most definitely true that as prices on a given item progress to the stratosphere, the rate of appreciation slows down (I have tracked it in coins and cars), the item's value can't fall very far in the absence of some catastrophic event, because if the highest level of demand, i.e. the collectors willing and able to pay some of these Mt. Everest prices, falls away, the next lower level is still there, still wants the item, and is willing to pay the price within their means.

As I've also said, we're here to stay, just as long as baseball and its history, or, if you are a type collector, the history of baseball cards, remains popular.

Just my 95 bucks worth, and wish you well in your collecting endeavors,

Larry

You can also talk about artwork etc. I just don't think you can compare cars and coins to cardboard...but only time will tell....I do understand the lower level concept.....the dealers will always pay a certain amount. ..many dealers are still collectors, but if the cycle goes on and they have trouble selling a card they now no longer wish to keep that they originally bought at a bargain price then that would test a new lower level ..then that would test another new level....it takes time I understand.

there are hundreds of 52 mantles out there...I not think in any of your examples involved an item where there were 500-1000 of them.... but you make good points....