Is it time to ask AGAIN if T206 prices are falling?

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by 4815162342

What do you guys think about the hammer on the PSA 4 Doyle Nat'l last night? It was around $20k less than the last time it was on REA in 2009. And to add insult to injury, a PSA 3 sold for $414,750 in 2012.

prices are falling....I thought the 52 topps mantles as well on the mile high and rea auctions fell as well except the BVG..

[iwantitiwinit]

REA Elberfeld SGC 60 goes for only $600, I can remember selling a PSA 5 in 2012 at $1900. Now granted psa in general sells for higher than sgc but $600 for a 5 is a weak price. This is just one example of last nights prices but thats drastic.

[MVSNYC]

The really rare pieces will always hold their value...look at last night's BL460, Drum (which was in very poor condition), Uzit, Lenox's, SL Hindu's, CB's, etc...all went high.

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

The really rare pieces will always hold their value....

Not true at all. Consider the T206 Doyle selling for $260,000. Purchased Spring 2009 for $329,000. Sold yesterday for $260,000. Loss of $69,000.

However, it was much worse than that. Consider the alternative to spending $329,000 on a card in Spring 2009. The Dow was at 8,200. Now it is at 17,200. $329,000 invested Spring 2009 in the Dow would be $690,000 now. Investment opportunity loss was $361,000. Adding the actual dollar loss of $69,000 means real loss was $430,000 in today's dollars.

But, it gets worse than that. Stocks in the Dow pay dividends averaging about 3% per year. From Spring 2009 to now, dividends would have been about $114,000. Adding this to the investment opportunity loss of $361,000 and the actual dollar loss of $69,000 means real loss was about $544,000.

It actually gets worse still if you consider that the dividends of $114,000 could have been reinvested into the Dow. That's another $20,000.

All told, the "investor" lost an additional $0.5 million on top of the perceived loss of $69,000.

[MVSNYC]

Eric, we can agree to disagree.

Funny, I was not meaning to reference the Doyle when I made my statement...I think choosing the Doyle for your in depth analysis is not a good chose at all. It is such a thinly traded market for that particular card. There are only a handful of people who need/can afford such a card. If one or two of them are not bidding for one reason or another, it will impact the hammer price significantly, as it apparently did in this Doyle's case. The Wagner, actually, is a much better barometer, if you want to chose a high-dollar, rare card.

Again, I think if you look at the BL460 pricing, along with Uzits, Lenoxs, etc...you'll find those prices are extremely strong.