NL Cy Young Award?

clydepepper · #1 10-10-2015, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the 'stache

One final post. Look at some of Kershaw's starts where he got completely gypped:

April 22nd @ San Francisco. He pitches 6 innings, allows 2 runs (2 earned), strikes out 9. No decision. Dodgers lose 2-3.

April 28th vs San Francisco. He pitches 7 innings, allows 2 runs (2 earned), strikes out 8. Takes the loss. Dodgers lose 1-2.

June 12th @ San Diego. He pitches 6 2/3 innings, allows 1 run (1 earned), strikes out 11. No decision. Dodgers win 4-3.

June 27th @ Miami. He pitches 7 innings, allows 3 runs (1 earned), strikes out 9. Takes the loss. Dodgers lose 2-3.

July 3rd vs New York (NL). He pitches 7 innings, allows 1 run (1 earned), strikes out 7. No decision. Dodgers lose 1-2.

August 18th @ Oakland. He pitches 7 innings, allows 1 run (1 earned), strikes out 7. No decision. Dodgers lose 4-5.

August 23rd @ Houston. He pitches 8 innings, allows 1 run (1 earned), strikes out 10. No decision. Dodgers lose 2-3.

Seven starts where he goes at least six innings, doesn't allow more than 2 earned runs in any of them, and he goes 0-2.

48 2/3 IP, 11 runs (9 earned), 1.67 ERA, 61 Ks, 11.3 Ks/9 IP.

The Dodgers score 16 runs in those 7 starts (2.28 runs per start). Seven quality starts, 21% of his starts for the year where he has a 1.67 ERA, and doesn't get a single win. Now, he did have a couple bad starts. He had three starts where he allowed 4 earned runs, and one where he allowed five. But Kershaw should have won a lot more than 16 games. And he shouldn't have lost 7. Realistically, he should have been at least 18-5.

Arrieta, on the other hand, only had 3 starts where he pitched at least six innings, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs, and didn't get a win.

It will be interesting to see the final vote, and read the commentary from the national writers once the winner has been announced.

While we are sending out flowers to those who have suffered for lack of support...let us send a special arrangement to one Shelby Miller, who led the majors in losses, but probably had more 'quality starts' than the average pitcher with a winning record...reminds me of Nolan Ryan's 1987 nightmare (8-16, but led league in both strikeouts and ERA)
.

the 'stache · #2 10-10-2015, 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

With his loss last night, Kershaw's post season stat line is now 1-6, 4.99. Yeah, we know, small sample size and all that.

Well, he got the loss last night, yes. But he didn't pitch poorly, either. 6 2/3 IP, 3 earned runs, 4 hits, 4 walks (that's atypical for him), 11 Ks. He made a mistake for a home run in the fourth, and gave up a hit and a couple walks in the 7th that led to the bases loaded with two outs when he was pulled. But the relief pitcher that came in fresh could have gotten one out instead of giving up a two run single.

And how many runs did the Dodgers score in support of Kershaw? One. Kershaw pitched well enough to win, but again, his team did nothing to help him. That's been a recurring theme in Los Angeles this season.

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCRfan1

Ugh. Enough with the saber metrics.....Can't ANYTHING be simple anymore? Pitcher X pitched on Tuesdays, pitcher Y on Thursday, but during the day in this park that had renovations that moved the fences in, no moved out, that that that that.....But wait! It was CLOUDY that day!!!! Good Lord. I agree with a previous poster, my fingers hurt looking at the amount of time and typing that has been done on some of the comments in this thread. Not to mention my head hurting trying to digest some of this stuff. Pitchers can't help where they pitch, when they pitch, and against who they pitch against. Just like hitters. They play where they play, and against who they play against. You can't help it, nor penalize players for it ( or reward players for the opposite ).

Why does it bother you so much? Nobody is forcing you to read my posts.

As far as "pitchers not being able to help where they pitch", that goes without saying. However, that statement doesn't mean the conclusions arrived at from in-depth research are without merit. If one pitcher has a 4.00 ERA, and another has a 3.00 ERA, without context, the assumption otherwise may be that the pitcher with the lower ERA was better. But when you determine that the pitcher with the 4.00 ERA started half his games at Coors Field, and was missing his Gold Glove shortstop for the whole season, while the pitcher with the 3.00 ERA started half his games at Petco, simple assumptions prove inaccurate.

Statistical analysis has advanced quite a bit in the last few decades. If you prefer to employ old fashioned methods, more power to you. But don't belittle those who choose to go a little deeper.

Quote:

Originally Posted by clydepepper

While we are sending out flowers to those who have suffered for lack of support...let us send a special arrangement to one Shelby Miller, who led the majors in losses, but probably had more 'quality starts' than the average pitcher with a winning record...reminds me of Nolan Ryan's 1987 nightmare (8-16, but led league in both strikeouts and ERA)
.

I had Shelby Miller on my fantasy team for most of the year, and I couldn't believe his luck. He had an outstanding season, but I imagine he felt like he was all alone out there at times.

Since this is a baseball card forum, here's my Miller rookie.

KCRfan1 · #3 10-11-2015, 08:11 AM

That's fine Bill, I'm not going to get into it with you. I follow baseball very closely, and understand how much statistical analysis plays into the game today. You're a detail guy and pull out every single thread of information you possibly can ever find to support a point. To me, it's just exhausting reading that stuff. At the end of the day most of us are still going to look at wins, loses, era, strikeouts, and perhaps the batting average of the opposing teams and how they hit against the pitcher. We do the same with batters. Hits, runs, home runs, batting average, rbi's. and perhaps stolen bases. At some point, there is just too much information and frankly we can make numbers do what we want them to to suit our needs, or support an argument or to prove a point. So in your hypothetical example, you can have that 4 era pitcher at Coors who didn't have his gold glove ss all season long, and I'll take the 3 era pitcher at Petco. Any hardware between the two, I'll win every single time.

Peter_Spaeth · #4 10-11-2015, 09:05 AM

Bill, Kershaw WALKED the bases loaded in the seventh. Three walks, not a hit and a couple of walks. In other words, he imploded. The best pitcher on the planet is not supposed to walk the bases loaded in the seventh inning of a playoff game. Stop spinning.

His post-season stat line is 1-6 4.99. Try spinning that.

the 'stache · #5 10-11-2015, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Bill, Kershaw WALKED the bases loaded in the seventh. Three walks, not a hit and a couple of walks. In other words, he imploded. The best pitcher on the planet is not supposed to walk the bases loaded in the seventh inning of a playoff game. Stop spinning.

His post-season stat line is 1-6 4.99. Try spinning that.

Fine. He walked three instead of two and a hit.

chaddurbin · #6 10-11-2015, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Bill, Kershaw WALKED the bases loaded in the seventh. Three walks, not a hit and a couple of walks. In other words, he imploded. The best pitcher on the planet is not supposed to walk the bases loaded in the seventh inning of a playoff game. Stop spinning.

His post-season stat line is 1-6 4.99. Try spinning that.

kershaw was certainly not as his best, and for the reigning "best pitcher on the planet" he does seem to have some of his worst games in the postseason. having said that the dodgers bullpen blows, the guy that allowed the 2-run single after kershaw left is the same guy that allowed the 3-run hr last year in the 7th to the cards after kershaw exited that game.

in his last 3 postseason starts...his stats thru the first 6inn in each (18 total innings) he's allowed 3 runs on 8 hits, with 28 strikeouts and 3 walks. in the 7th of those games he's recorded 4 outs, allowing 11 runs on 9 hits and 3walks with 2 strikeouts. so it is what it is, maybe he's worn down or tires late, his bullpen lets him down, mattingly stays with him longer because a 75% kershaw is still better than what's in relief..but here's a guy that in the regular season gets thru 7 and 8 on a regular basis.

i don't know why we're talking about postseason in a cy young thread tho...i'd still take kershaw over anybody right now to start a game if my life is depended on it.

Peter_Spaeth · #7 10-11-2015, 04:34 PM

One game? Give me Bumgarner. The dude thrives on pressure.

HRBAKER · #8 10-11-2015, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

One game? Give me Bumgarner. The dude thrives on pressure.

...and he's a good bat too!

clydepepper · #9 10-11-2015, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Bill, Kershaw WALKED the bases loaded in the seventh. Three walks, not a hit and a couple of walks. In other words, he imploded. The best pitcher on the planet is not supposed to walk the bases loaded in the seventh inning of a playoff game. Stop spinning.

His post-season stat line is 1-6 4.99. Try spinning that.

at $32,571,000, he can hire someone to spin it for him.

What about the AL Cy Young? I'm staying with David Price (reminding everyone that the Cy is for the regular season)
.
.

Peter_Spaeth · #10 10-11-2015, 07:24 PM

I like Keuchel but it's a tossup in my book between him and Price.

chaddurbin · #11 11-19-2015, 01:46 PM

congrats to jake a, greinke was hosed! i'm prolly more pissed about it tho since he didn't even care enough to show up...and where's the homer love a los angeles sports rag writer voted for arrieta #1. if this was midwest america that writer would have already been fired or at least had some passive-aggressive shade thrown his way wrapped in a layer of pretend niceness.

the 'stache · #12 10-11-2015, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCRfan1

That's fine Bill, I'm not going to get into it with you. I follow baseball very closely, and understand how much statistical analysis plays into the game today. You're a detail guy and pull out every single thread of information you possibly can ever find to support a point. To me, it's just exhausting reading that stuff. At the end of the day most of us are still going to look at wins, loses, era, strikeouts, and perhaps the batting average of the opposing teams and how they hit against the pitcher. We do the same with batters. Hits, runs, home runs, batting average, rbi's. and perhaps stolen bases. At some point, there is just too much information and frankly we can make numbers do what we want them to to suit our needs, or support an argument or to prove a point. So in your hypothetical example, you can have that 4 era pitcher at Coors who didn't have his gold glove ss all season long, and I'll take the 3 era pitcher at Petco. Any hardware between the two, I'll win every single time.

Again. If you don't like the way I post, ignore me. It's that simple.

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