Junk wax anyone?

pokerplyr80 · #1 08-21-2015, 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

And at the same time, a card of a guy with a .258 average and 20 home runs at age 23 sells for 15K.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/BGS-9-5-KRIS...item1ea1ee4440

I don't think that one sells for 15k. It looks like he has one from 2013 that did last month though. What do you think the odds are that card is even worth 1500 in 10 years?

Peter_Spaeth · #2 08-21-2015, 09:38 PM

I don't understand the shiny market but it seems to be driven by two things: manufactured scarcity (although there seem to be innumerable barely distinguishable "scarce" versions of the same rookie card) and speculation on players who have in some cases not even put on a uniform, as if they were lock first-ballot HOFers.

pokerplyr80 · #3 08-22-2015, 12:37 AM

I don't get it either. Although I wish I was opening bowman products Mike Trout's rookie year. I think a few of his cards still have some potential upside, although not without plenty of risk.

Peter_Spaeth · #4 08-22-2015, 08:57 AM

Trout is a great player, but at the same time he strikes out a lot (led the league last year), and his stolen bases have fallen way off from his rookie year, so we will see what happens.

bn2cardz · #5 08-22-2015, 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Trout is a great player, but at the same time he strikes out a lot (led the league last year), and his stolen bases have fallen way off from his rookie year, so we will see what happens.

Mickey Mantle led in strike outs 5 times and Babe Ruth did 4 times (5 if you include his pitching years). Leading in Strike Outs means nothing to HOF voters or even fans for that matter.

Matter of fact Mike Trout hit more Home Runs and had a higher OPS than Mantle in both of their 22year old seasons. I am not saying Trout is for sure a 1st round HOF, it is too early to say. I am only saying you can not base it off Strike Outs or Stolen Bases (which Trout also leads Mantle 16-5 in their 22 year old season).

Peter_Spaeth · #6 08-22-2015, 09:35 AM

Mantle never struck out more than 120 or so times. Trout already has a 180 under his belt. That's Adam Dunn territory. Along with two 130s. And 116 this year with a month plus to go. Of course he could nevertheless be an all time great, just pointing out a note of caution. And the falloff in stolen bases from his rookie year -- when of course he was considered one of those rare marvels combining power and speed -- has been quite dramatic. 49 33 16 10.

bn2cardz · #7 08-22-2015, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Mantle never struck out more than 120 or so times. Trout already has a 180 under his belt. That's Adam Dunn territory. Along with two 130s. And 116 this year with a month plus to go. Of course he could nevertheless be an all time great, just pointing out a note of caution. And the falloff in stolen bases from his rookie year -- when of course he was considered one of those rare marvels combining power and speed -- has been quite dramatic. 49 33 16 10.

I SO/year have increased over the years. We know Ruth as a great home run hitter, but when he played he was known as the King of Strike Outs. Yet his strike out totals were nothing compared to today's players (Ruth never had more than 100 in a season). Then Mantle came along and there were similar talks about his strike outs. Yet, even though he also lead the league, his strikeouts are minimal to today. My point is that just because he leads the league in SO doesn't really matter, when you look at the full scope of his stats. He led the SO the same year he led in Runs, RBI, and Total Bases... Dunn only led in SO and eventually walks.

SO/AB totals for the people mentioned thus far:

Dunn 35%
Trout 26%
Mantle 21%
Ruth 16%

So the fact is Trout is still closer to Mantle than to Dunn.

I do agree that there is a word of caution and it is too early to say he is a great, but I just think looking at SO only can cause you to miss the bigger picture just as some did with Ruth and Mantle when they played because they focused on SO with their all or nothing swings.

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