Quote:
Originally Posted by wilkiebaby11
Using data from VCP on sales since early 2006, I created two models for the two cards in question. I won't extrapolate the data, so we only have about 9 years to work with. I only used PSA 3,4, and 5 grades for simplicity, since the grade is such an important factor and looking at 4's vs 8's is a whole different ball game. Close grades should follow a closer regression fit. It's a pretty good set of data and a pretty good model fit in the end. I used a "curved" quadratic equation with dates and grades as my predictors (and the squared terms which end up having p-values of <0.001). R-sq for both cards are at 70%+. No signs the lead me to believe the model has errors (it is normally distributed, as expected)
Here's some stats on the 51 Mantle RC sales of PSA 3,4,5 via VCP.
Expected cost of PSA 4 in 2006: ~$2500
Expected cost of PSA 4 in 2015: ~$3900
9 year ROI: 56%
1 year ROI: 5.1%
Here's some stats on the '33 #53 Ruth sales of PSA 3,4,5 via VCP.
Expected cost in 2006: ~$3100
Expected cost in 2015: ~$4250
9 year ROI: 37%
1 year ROI: 3.6%
*I have a degree in mathematics and statistics, so I have a decent idea of what I'm talking about here... While the Mantle is going up in price a bit faster, the Ruth has pretty good investment power as well and is in no way stagnant. To give value on something based on the future would be unwise.
*I watch Shark Tank every week and Kevin O'Leary reminds me every week not to invest in future forecasts and "what-ifs" 
Thanks for letting me "nerd-out" on my lunch break. |
Brilliant analysis! And of course Ruth is moving upward. As the seller, I have to angle things as best I can and saying the recent data for Ruth (few months) is relatively flat is true....though going back in time it is clearly a constant riser....O'Leary is right....but that has to be balanced against risk.....an investor doesnt pay for tomorrow's price b/c he is taking on risk.....but every investor is 100% betting on futures forecasts....hence the term"futures"....we are just paying today's prices.....the flex in today's sell prices should vary based on the assumption of futures....meaning, Mantle RCs often go slightly higher than market average as they are on the rise.....cards on the decline will go for under market value as folks suspect those trends will continue....all that being said, theres some black swan factors in the card market that historically sway prices harder than any forecast metric know to man (economy trend impact, shifting desires of the key investment demo as the old collectors age out and the new guys choose to buy different things to recapture their childhood).....we all just have to pray there will not come a day when no one cares about prewar cards anymore and they are relegated to basic antiques and nostalgia rather than investment grade items.....if baseball were to fall out of favor permanently, we'd all have a lot of tiny cardboard problems on our hands....luckily baseball has a good track record of surviving the long haul
i love talking investment
06-04-2015, 07:58 AM
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