T206 Detective Work

[sreader3]

1. Mutually exclusive. What I meant by this is that Dougherty (Arm in Air) and Ames (Arms Above) have not yet both been “seen” to date with such backs. Such mutual exclusivity is suggestive of “swapping” one for the other on a sheet, rather than, for example, printing 4 Doughertys and 1 Ames on a sheet, since in the 4/1 case one would expect that at least a few Ameses would have surfaced by now. However, mutual exclusivity to-date is not conclusive of a front-back combination’s existence or non-existence since, in the case of scarcer backs, it is possible that a copy might not have yet emerged in a 4/1 (or even a 2/1, for that matter) ratio printing.

2. Survey data. Ted is correct that Ames AB 460 was not among the 100K+ cards publicly sold during the 2008 – 2013 survey period (assuming my survey to be comprehensive). However, this is of limited probative value toward its nonexistence since several hundred scarcer front/back combinations whose existence is not disputed were not sold during that survey period. T206 Resource says this front/back combination exists and they have done a pretty good job as far as I know in requiring proof (e.g., scans) before adding front/back combinations to their checklists. Moreover, Ted’s working theory seems to rely on the existence of Ames with Red Hindu which has not been proven.

3. I agree with Ted that further study is required; however, I remain intrigued by the Ames for Dougherty swap theory since it seems to fit the presently available data.

Scot

Edited to change: "about 1,000" to "several hundred" in paragraph 2.