Adrian Beltre - HOFer?

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Dawson was NOT a superstar when he arrived in Chicago. He'd been pretty average for three straight years from 84 to 86. And he was out of a job all the way up till spring training in 87. And he only got a job because he gave the Cubs a blank contract and told them to fill in a number.

And those big power numbers in 87? Are we forgetting that MLB juiced the baseballs in 87? Wade Freaking Boggs hit 24 homers that year. Dawson hit 49, yeah, but in context that number isn't nearly as impressive.

Hmm. I'm not sure how 162 game averages of .262, 33 doubles, 24 home runs, 102 RBI and 19 steals are average, especially when you consider he also won two Gold Gloves in those seasons, as well. Was he as good as he'd been the prior four seasons in Montreal? No. But the difference isn't as big as you'd make it out to be.

162 game averages
1980-1983 .302 AVG, 40 doubles, 28 home runs, 101 RBI, 36 SB. 140 OPS +
1984-1986 .262 AVG, 33 doubles, 24 home runs, 102 RBI, 19 SB. 111 OPS +

The batting average dropped, yes. But the power and run production was remarkably similar.

I guess I remember it differently than you do. I lived in Milwaukee, and made several trips to Chicago each year, as most of my family lived there (and still do). I remember talking with my cousins, and they were pretty excited to get Dawson. If I remember correctly, they felt that the Hawk still had plenty left in the tank, and that a change of scenery might do some good.

And the balls couldn't have been that juiced. Only Dale Murphy (44) of all those National League power hitters managed to jack out 40 or more home runs besides Dawson. In fact, Murphy was the only National League hitter to come within ten home runs of Dawson, as Darryl Strawberry came in third in the NL with 39 home runs.

Two hitters with 40 + HR.
Six other hitters with 30 + HR.

No, juiced was 2004 when Adrian Beltre hit 48 home runs. Six NL players had 40 or more homers that season, and 17 more hitters had 30 or more home runs.

So, to compare:

1987: two hitters 40 + home runs, six others 30 +.
2004: six hitters 40 + home runs, seventeen others 30 +.

Eight guys with 30 + home runs vs twenty-three.

Hmm. That's a pretty big difference.