vintage card prices

[Lordstan]

Michael,
As with all areas of collecting that are newer I think it is tough to predict. As many have commented, in the past, getting cards signed was considered defacement by purists. In a sense that sentiment has limited the number of cards available, especially in older sets. It's because of the limited availability, along with the OCD of the collectors, that have pushed up prices.
I remember about 4yrs ago when Paul put out his offer to pay $1000 for any signed t206. Prior to that you could purchase signed t206s, when they showed up on ebay, for between $100-$300. His offer not only made people more interested because of his obvious passion, but also raised the prices as they could always sell to him.
I think there will be a plateau at some point. Most of the rarer cards will hold their value, while lesser one will probably drop a little.

Mike and Clyde,
I disagree with both of you to a degree. Provenance has a place in autograph collecting, but it is only one variable that one should consider. I have bought many an autograph with little or no provenance, because I was very comfortable with the specific form of the signature. I have also passed on things with supposed great provenance because I just didn't think it looked like it should.

best to all,
Mark

[packs]

I don't think provenance comes into play when dealing with say a 1956 Topps signed by Whitey Ford. I also subscribe to the "it's real or it's not real" philosophy.

[Orioles1954]

I once had (9) signed T206 cards, the cheapest of which I bought for a whopping $65 on ebay in 2005-2006. I never spent more than $300 on any of them. Definitely sold out too early.

[Exhibitman]

The interesting aspect for me is the signed vintage card of the guy who lived into the signing era but who died before signing old cards caught on. So the signature may be plentiful but the signed card is not. For example, I used to have a Judy Johnson signed modern PC. I then found a signed Laughlin Negro League card. That is considered by many to be a RC. I have seen lots of Johnson signed items. No other Laughlin cards. Or a 1941 Goudey Hubbell I picked up at a National.

I also like cards that were signed in the old days even if the signer was active later. Lots of Satchel Paige signed stuff but I held out for a signed and mailed Browns PC postmarked 1953. My fave of this sort is a JD McCarthy PC of Don Drysdale in a Brooklyn cap signed and addressed in his hand and mailed from Brooklyn in 1957. I'd rather own that than a Drysdale RC.

I also like tougher types that are signed. I got a 1958 Bell Snider and an Exhibit Skowron White Sox at one National. Those are easy signatures but tough cards unsigned, so the combo is pretty special because not too many collectors decided to 'wreck' a three figure card with a signature.