1952 Topps Mantle; Worth It In Any Condition?

[Exhibitman]

I was talking this over with some other members of the board at lunch Saturday and we all think this card is in a bubble given the demographic trend in the Hobby. With so many Boomer collectors reaching senior status in the next several years, the collecting base of the people who had the income to chase the low end Mantles and the nostalgia for the Mantle era is going to shrink, and grabbing a fugly version at any price may not be a good idea. And FWIW, losing your shirt on a card, which has happened to me a few times in the last year or two when I went to sell stuff I purchased in 07-08-09, sucks @$$.

[jason.1969]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I was talking this over with some other members of the board at lunch Saturday and we all think this card is in a bubble given the demographic trend in the Hobby. With so many Boomer collectors reaching senior status in the next several years, the collecting base of the people who had the income to chase the low end Mantles and the nostalgia for the Mantle era is going to shrink, and grabbing a fugly version at any price may not be a good idea. And FWIW, losing your shirt on a card, which has happened to me a few times in the last year or two when I went to sell stuff I purchased in 07-08-09, sucks @$$.

I wonder about this first part also. For many older collectors today, Mantle is first and foremost this incredible baseball talent and hero of our youth. Meanwhile for younger collectors Mantle is simply the guy whose cards are worth the most despite stats largely comparable to Frank Robinson.

[Donscards]

Mickey is still hot. I sold a nice PSA 5 last June for 20k. If I had the card now, it would go 25-27 k. I also sold a 3 for 10 k in nov. I did see a perfect centered PSA 5 Mickey sell for 26 k last nov, the dealer buyer then sold it to a customer for 30 k. I am still looking for 1952 Mantles. .

[packs]

I tend to disagree. I never saw Ruth play and neither did most of the people who seek out his cards.

[brob28]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I was talking this over with some other members of the board at lunch Saturday and we all think this card is in a bubble given the demographic trend in the Hobby. With so many Boomer collectors reaching senior status in the next several years, the collecting base of the people who had the income to chase the low end Mantles and the nostalgia for the Mantle era is going to shrink, and grabbing a fugly version at any price may not be a good idea. And FWIW, losing your shirt on a card, which has happened to me a few times in the last year or two when I went to sell stuff I purchased in 07-08-09, sucks @$$.

I completely agree Adam. I don't think we'll see prices drop from the sky like a North Korean rocket, but I really do think prices will come down. Mantle's cards are so much more pricey than any other HOF player of his era but the cards themselves are generally not rarer. IMO when a PSA 1 '52 Mantle (particularly the one in the OP) costs more than virtually any PSA 3 T206 (excluding rare backs) HOF card including Wajo, Young & Cobb a correction is likely. As I'm typing this I'm curious, if the posters in this thread had to pick one pre-1980 player's cards that will have the most price depreciation in the next 20-30 years what would it be. For me it's Mantle, the main reason as Adam pointed out aging baby boomers.

[Econteachert205]

To me, the high condition examples of the card and it's prices represent the investment potential of the card while the low grade examples represent the desire factor. To that point I believe the higher grade examples will continue to appreciate given that it is an iconic card, while the low grade examples will level off for the baby boomer reasons already given.

[MattyC]

It all depends whom you talk to. I am 38 and my collecting friends are younger-- and we are all paying top dollar for the 1952 Mantle when a real pretty one surfaces. To desire and love the card, one doesn't have to be a boomer. Kids who grew up in the 1980's see it as an iconic piece for a collection. The dream card. Whereas the Wagner is not attainable. Those kids who grew up in the 80s will be competing for the nice ones for decades to come, even as the boomers phase out. Bottom line, there is a whole generation just entering prime earning years who look up to that card as much as the boomers did. Barring vagaries of the economy, I'd bet that anyone inclined to schadenfreude regarding this card will be waiting over a quarter century.

Also, one need not be a boomer to understand what Mantle was to America in a Post-War period when the country needed an icon, a matinee idol, a hero that looked every bit the part. Every time Mantle comes up, or his cards come up, there inevitably are collectors who point to his stats and scream, "Overvalued!" Yet they myopically miss the point and the larger picture. There are many intangibles when it comes to Mantle the man, his place in popular culture, and the hold that specific card-- the standard-bearer of the hobby to the generation who were kids in the 1980's. Many of us knew The Mantle, his 52 Topps, before we ever heard of The Wagner.

There is also a romantic, tragic angle to his story of such massive potential that went untapped and uncared for, and how he came to accept that, albeit too late. These are factors that transcend mere pop reports and the specious initial logic that holds in-person fans as the main or sole driver of demand for a player's cards. As someone said, the likes of Ruth, Gehrig, Shoeless, and Cobb would beg to differ there.

In the end, no one has a crystal ball, and probably most who own the card cherish it as a centerpiece of their collection-- and are much more concerned with enjoying it and the pleasure it brings, than what it might be sold for ten or twenty years from now. It seems the card hobby so often becomes about future prices and market trends, when, after all, these cherished pieces of Americana are not stocks.

[brob28]

Leave Schadendreude out of this, she's a very nice lady.

I'm in the age group you describe Matt, but I never developed the fervor for Mantle that some others have. So perhaps it's just my preference. Don't get me wrong I have several Mantle cards, Mantle is significant ('56 is my fav.) I just see this card as an outlier when compared to every card I can think of that is as abundant. I figure I should add, I'm well versed in all the iconic nature of the card.

[brob28]

Originally Posted by MattyC

It all depends whom you talk to. I am 38 and my collecting friends are younger-- and we are all paying top dollar for the 1952 Mantle when a real pretty one surfaces. To desire and love the card, one doesn't have to be a boomer. Kids who grew up in the 1980's see it as an iconic piece for a collection. The dream card. Whereas the Wagner is not attainable. Those kids who grew up in the 80s will be competing for the nice ones for decades to come, even as the boomers phase out. Bottom line, there is a whole generation just entering prime earning years who look up to that card as much as the boomers did. Barring vagaries of the economy, I'd bet that anyone inclined to schadenfreude regarding this card will be waiting over a quarter century.

Also, one need not be a boomer to understand what Mantle was to America in a Post-War period when the country needed an icon, a matinee idol, a hero that looked every bit the part. Every time Mantle comes up, or his cards come up, there inevitably are collectors who point to his stats and scream, "Overvalued!" Yet they myopically miss the point and the larger picture. There are many intangibles when it comes to Mantle the man, his place in popular culture, and the hold that specific card-- the standard-bearer of the hobby to the generation who were kids in the 1980's. Many of us knew The Mantle, his 52 Topps, before we ever heard of The Wagner.

There is also a romantic, tragic angle to his story of such massive potential that went untapped and uncared for, and how he came to accept that, albeit too late. These are factors that transcend mere pop reports and the specious initial logic that holds in-person fans as the main or sole driver of demand for a player's cards. As someone said, the likes of Ruth, Gehrig, Shoeless, and Cobb would beg to differ there.

In the end, no one has a crystal ball, and probably most who own the card cherish it as a centerpiece of their collection-- and are much more concerned with enjoying it and the pleasure it brings, than what it might be sold for ten or twenty years from now. It seems the card hobby so often becomes about future prices and market trends, when, after all, these cherished pieces of Americana are not stocks.

While debating each cards merits is a part of the fun of this hobby, I agree 100% with your last paragraph and couldn't say it better. I've got plenty of cards, that I love and may take a bath on - I don't care I love the cards. Cheers

[HappyJack41]

Originally Posted by MattyC

It all depends whom you talk to. I am 38 and my collecting friends are younger-- and we are all paying top dollar for the 1952 Mantle when a real pretty one surfaces. To desire and love the card, one doesn't have to be a boomer. Kids who grew up in the 1980's see it as an iconic piece for a collection. The dream card. Whereas the Wagner is not attainable. Those kids who grew up in the 80s will be competing for the nice ones for decades to come, even as the boomers phase out. Bottom line, there is a whole generation just entering prime earning years who look up to that card as much as the boomers did. Barring vagaries of the economy, I'd bet that anyone inclined to schadenfreude regarding this card will be waiting over a quarter century.

I too am in my mid to late 30's and highly value the likes of many past greats that I obviously never saw play. I most definitely believe all Mantle cards will continue to gain small premiums, however further down the road, I truly don't believe they will sustain these stratospheric price levels for many more years to come. There is a little bit of a bubble going on right now with this card and it will eventually level out over time.

That doesn't mean that just anybody will be able to buy a nice copy, but as the TRUE driving force (baby boomer gen) behind the card's value over the past 30 years starts to age and move on, so will the overall value. There just simply isn't enough 25-40 year olds out there today right now with both the money AND the demand to keep this going another 20-30 years at these prices. Yes a small handful of serious Mantle collectors can keep prices fairly high, but I believe what we're seeing now is sort of a topping out phase before the bubble eventually (and it will) bursts over the next decade. Currently it's a seller's market and for buyer's, it's a HORRIBLE time to decide you "need" to have a 1952 Mantle lol.

[GregC]

I don't think there is much I can add that Matt didn't already say.

People are always bringing up how "overpriced" his cards are but they have held some of the highest prices in our Hobby since the initial boom in the 1980s. Why is it so shocking that they have continued to sustain these prices and climb in times of economic growth when many collectors have more disposable cash on hand to indulge in their cardboard vices?

The OP is an example that is not winning any beauty pageants but comparative to the going rate for attractive low grade examples, $3800ish isn't crazy. If it goes to a collector that is happy to have it and couldn't afford better what does it matter?

I recently added an SGC 1.5 to my collection. I didn't want to spend north of $10k on the card and can tell from experience, shopping in the Auth, 1 and 1.5 ranks with any modicum of eye appeal does not leave many options.

1300-2000 examples is simply not enough to keep up with demand. Consider many collectors don't have $10k+ to drop on a card and that leaves a small percentage of the pop that is actually attainable.

[ullmandds]

To me...not worth spending thousands to have...esp in such crappy condition!

Lots of valid points have already been voiced...I am of the camp that the price/demand for mantle rookies will decrease over time as the boomers die off.

But...I think buying a 51 bowman mantle true rookie could be a better purchase these days.