Can't fight City Hall- eBay protecting their large sellers (probstein content)

[glchen]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

people aren't really talking about ebay ..they are talking about the AH's that charge 20 percent..you cant keep paying 20% when winning your own items..makes no sense ..

as to ebay....yes the bid retraction feature is there up to 24 hours before the item is to sell....you will know which sellers have lots of bid retractions..

plus once you have a 'terrible' result..then why don't bidders price accordingly to the lowest card..why do they value cards with the high bids....we control what we bid....if ebay is terrible in terms of not punishing bidders that win their own items than don't factor in ebay on VCP pricing...lots of ways to deal with shilling...there are so many other things that are wrong that we cant control in life..i don't see shilling as a problem..the major major buys are usually with auctions houses not ebay...if a seller wants 20k on a 1952 mantle..and its at 17k .you really think he will shill it to the next bidding slot lets say 19k....if he 'wins' he will pay 4k with an auction house...no way he bids to that with that risk

This thread is talking mostly about ebay as probstein is one of the largest ebay sellers of sportscards.

You know how many bid retractions that a bidder has on ebay, but not necessarily how many non payment strikes. A shiller can "win" an auction on ebay, and simply not pay, and the card would go to the next highest bidder or be re-listed again where the same process happens.

It's true that you control what you bid, but people usually base their bids upon past auction sales (of the same card or similar cards). However, if the prices of those cards that you are using as your value basis were shilled up, then the entire foundation that you are using to base your bids upon is flawed.

About issues with auction houses, you want to remember what happened to Mastronet...

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by glchen

This thread is talking mostly about ebay as probstein is one of the largest ebay sellers of sportscards.

You know how many bid retractions that a bidder has on ebay, but not necessarily how many non payment strikes. A shiller can "win" an auction on ebay, and simply not pay, and the card would go to the next highest bidder or be re-listed again where the same process happens.

It's true that you control what you bid, but people usually base their bids upon past auction sales (of the same card or similar cards). However, if the prices of those cards that you are using as your value basis were shilled up, then the entire foundation that you are using to base your bids upon is flawed.

About issues with auction houses, you want to remember what happened to Mastronet...

Right we went through this already.....Ebay past sales shouldn't hold as much value as there is no penalty to the shiller versus AHs...and when a card finally gets crushed at an AH because of the past shilling foundation you speak of..now we would have the new real value.....taking ebay out of it..i really don't see how taking a risk to bid on your own card when its at VCP or 10 percent less is worth it when you risk paying a 20% BP...... ..

I value AH past sales higher then ebay..and most people in the hobby that buy expensieve cards have a bunch more knowledge than me so im sure they do the same thing...thus the shilling really isn't the menace people make it out to be

[Leon]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

..thus the shilling really isn't the menace people make it out to be

Yes it is.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Leon

Yes it is.

Leon- If buyers actually had to pay 20% if won their own items, do you agree that its not as big a deal as many think. I understand there may be issues if they acutally have to pay the 20%, but lets assume you lose 20% if you win your own item, don't you think that's enough of a penalty.

thus if I were to bid on an item, I would know that if the bidder under me was prepared to lose 20% if 'won' the item is pretty comforting to me ..

yes I know you will come up with examples if the item is about to sell for 40% lower than perceived market so people bid on their own items..i say go ahead and eat 20% ..you really think they will want to eat another 20% on the same card?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

Leon- If buyers actually had to pay 20% if won their own items, do you agree that its not as big a deal as many think. I understand there may be issues if they acutally have to pay the 20%, but lets assume you lose 20% if you win your own item, don't you think that's enough of a penalty.

thus if I were to bid on an item, I would know that if the bidder under me was prepared to lose 20% if 'won' the item is pretty comforting to me ..

yes I know you will come up with examples if the item is about to sell for 40% lower than perceived market so people bid on their own items..i say go ahead and eat 20% ..you really think they will want to eat another 20% on the same card?

By definition shilling is fraudulent. If you want to protect the price on something do a reserve or higher starting price, neither of which is fraudulent.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Leon

By definition shilling is fraudulent. If you want to protect the price on something do a reserve or higher starting price, neither of which is fraudulent.

I agree with you there...but not sure why they wouldn't rather just set a reserve than risk 20% on a 'win' to me that's saying something if they are so sure their bid is so low that they will pay 20% on a win

if card vcp is at 20k and the bidding is at 18k...and they can lose 2k..you really think they bid it to 19k and have the chance to lose 3800? doesn't make sense..i really think though illegal its a non issue for the high priced cards at AH that make you pay 20% on a win.

[Robextend]

Let me throw in my two cents (which is worth less than 2 cents).

An item is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. When someone bids on their own item, no matter if it is $2 or $20k, it is misleading the market.

The item really isn't worth 19k in your above example...no matter what the outcome is...if the final bidding was meant to have been 18k, that is what it is.

Like stated previously...set a reserve if you are afraid the final price won't be to your liking. It is legal, and does not fraud the market out of valuable data.

[Exhibitman]

The AH hypothetical is not realistic: no consignor who can do math is going to shill an auction already sitting at 90% of past results since it would cost him somewhere on the order of 18% of the value of the lot.

Shilling in an AH would be attractive when the price is way below market and the seller is going to take a giant loss. I'll give you a real world example: Heritage Auctions. HA does two interesting things: it expressly allows consignors to bid into their own lots in return for paying the BP if they win, and it holds unsold lots open for some time as BINs for the minimum bid. I sold a bunch of stuff in November. I did not bid into any of my lots in November. Two of my lots, however, which I was into for ten times the opening bids, were offered as post-auction BINs. I opted to exercise my consignor's rights to BIN them [at the cost of the BP] and avoid taking a 90% loss. The cost to me was effectively 20% of 10% of the cards' value, i.e., 2% of the value of the lots. It was worth 2% to me to take the cards off the market rather than see them sell at throw-away prices and net practically nothing.

This isn't the same as shilling--shilling by definition is illegal and not allowed under the auction rules--so not a perfect analogy, but it is the same financial calculation. To me it was worth 2% to hold my items back. If the cards were at 70% of what I felt was market price I probably would not have gone back into them.

One further note: this whole idea of 'market' is an artifice. We don't have the theoretically perfect flow of information and participation that the model assumes. With all of the auctions around plus eBay the reality is that lots of collectors miss lots of items, which sell for a lot less than they would have otherwise. If information and participation were perfect it would not be possible to flip cards for a profit. I have often had cards go begging on eBay or at auction then suddenly take off and sells in competitive auctions. No rhyme or reason to it, they just got found by the right bidders.