Instant Classic

Runscott · #1 01-19-2015, 10:22 PM

You could tell by watching the replays - very difficult if even possible.

familytoad · #2 01-20-2015, 12:33 AM

My earlier post admitted that this game took some luck.
I think *every* close game involves some...but I still contend that this game was won because of the determination of Seattle.

You gotta make your own luck sometimes.

The Super Bowl should be great, and I think they are the two best teams. That's what you want in the final game.

Some might think the luckiest team will win, but I think the team with the greatest amount of determination will win. I cannot say who that team will be, but if it only took luck, they should just flip a coin or pull a name from a basket of spinning ping pong balls.

Go Seahawks !

itjclarke · #3 01-20-2015, 12:34 AM

I don't wanna get too involved on definition of the word luck. That being said, I think Seattle got some lucky breaks late, which created opportunities for them. However, I give them full credit for executing and taking full advantage of each opportunity.

I see things like the onside kick, the GB DB who slid right after Wilson's 4th pick (blame Julius Peppers), HaHa not making a better play on the ball, as being lucky from Seattle's perspective because each relied on a GB player making errors that were outside Seattle's control. That said, Seattle did very well executing the onside kick (high bounce and look how quick Kam and company get 10 yards), and the 2pt play was an amazing play by Russell Wilson.

I think Wilson plays with incredible awareness, within the pocket, within each play, and within the overall game situation (wish Kaep had these traits). Just see the way Wilson always quickly reaches forward with the ball just before stepping out of bounds (takes a free yard), or how well he picks up receivers immediately after eluding rushers (he knows where they are and where they'll be, even while evading defenders), or when if throwing on 4th down he always puts it up and gives his guy a shot (see TD pass to Kearse in NFC championship game last year). Yesterday's 2 point play is basically a 4th down, but one in which the defense can't intercept and return it for points. I assure Wilson is aware of this rule pre-snap, so when the play breaks down, rather than take a sack or throw it away, he throws a cross body rainbow to the opposite hash... a pass what would be unacceptably dangerous in just about ANY OTHER down/distance/game situation except this one. He puts it on money, Wilson makes a play on the ball and Clinton Dix doesn't.

Seattle definitely got lucky breaks, but it took some pretty special plays by special players to capitalize. This hurts me to say since I was definitely rooting for the Packers (errr, against the Seahawks), and think GB at 5 min left in the 4th closes that one out 9 of 10 times... just not yesterday.

Runscott · #4 01-20-2015, 10:27 AM

nevermind...long, windbag response deleted.

I just got lucky and took a shower. About to get lucky and brush my teeth, then plan to get lucky and go out for coffee.

Luckily, I will not bring my computer

#5 01-20-2015, 11:20 AM

Scott, Just calculate the odds, 4th down conversion percentage in the NFL (45%, 98/216 probably lower with a fake field goal/punt), two point conversions (47%, 28/59 in 2014), and on side kicks (16%, 9/56 in 2014). All of these events combined 45% X 47% X 16% = a 3.4% chance of success. That's 1 in 33, a longshot in horse racing/boxing circles. I'd say that's luck, not to factor in the coin toss, or to mention Hauschka had not attempted an on side kick since 2012.

Did you really have a 3% chance to brush your teeth this morning?

Runscott · #6 01-20-2015, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pariah1107

Scott, Just calculate the odds

Well, we thought with me getting coffee, it was 100% Guess what? I screwed around and remembered I had a package arriving before 10:00. I'm making my coffee at home instead - 1st time in a week. A conscious human decision.

With a coin it's 50/50 - luck. With football plays there are also conscious decisions to be made.

I guess the problem with the word 'luck' is that I took several statistics classes - they made you do that to get an MBA - and you CAN calculate the odds of a coin being a head or a tail. You have no say whatsoever in the matter - it is pure luck. But then there is a decision to make - take the ball or let the other team have it. Conscious decisions and physical ability to execute those decisions isn't luck.

While you can also calculate the odds of any football play outcome, you DO have a say in the matter of almost every one of them. I don't think anyone participating in this thread is taking 'consciousness' into account here. Coins don't have it - football players do. Coaches do. If you wanted to create a board game for football, and have a die you roll that 15% of the time would give you a successful onside kick, then that would be luck. But you would also have to create a die that helps you make the decision as to whether or not to kickoff and rely on your defense to hold the other team so that you could get the ball back. What kind of die would you create for that? How about the odds of Seattle, in that particular situation, with those particular players, on their home field? Can you still just roll a die and get a lucky outcome?

You guys call it whatever you want. It's a good discussion and, if you like, I have no problem with you declaring yourselves correct - David's definition of 'luck' would certainly indicate as much.

Edited to add: just read in today's paper that if this had actually been a board game, there would have been a 1% chance of Seattle winning when there were four minutes remaining - I assume they mean just after the Green Bay interception.

itjclarke · #7 01-20-2015, 04:22 PM

Scott, I think I definitely was factoring player "consciousness" when referring to Russell Wilson's game/situation awareness.

Separately with respect to the decision on an OT coin toss, every team will take the ball in OT. It's as close to a no brainer as I can imagine, so no credit for a decision there. The only reason I could ever see not doing so is if wind/weather conditions are so severe... Check that, all teams will take the ball. (an aside- I gotta think with practice a coin toss can be manipulated.. But that isn't relevant). I think many of the decisions in the final 3 minutes were already made and dictated by situation-- decision to onside kick, decision to go for 2, or to take the ball in OT. The fake FG on the other hand is a gutsy decision.

I see the Seahawks' "luck" as pertaining to anything that was outside their control (other team drops a ball, muffs a punt, makes a very poor decision, etc)... Of course the Seahawks' decisions and execution can play a big factor in increasing their odds, but no one on the Seahawks influenced GB's DB to slide after that INT. Take that example alone-- he doesn't slide, maybe he ends up in FG range.. Or at the very least, he burns a few more seconds off, so it's likely Seattle begins their last drive just after the 2 min warning, as opposed to just prior... In which case I doubt they start that drive with back to back runs.. Which maybe yields a 3rd and long... And on and on.

From the Seahawks perspective, it's lucky the Packers made a series of untimely mistakes. Again however, I fully give Seattle credit for taking full advantage through their execution. Seattle is undoubtedly a SB worthy team.

Runscott · #8 01-20-2015, 04:31 PM

You guys keep saying that something is 'luck' because it could have gone a different way. That's true of everything in life. I'm lucky I'm not breaking a finger every time I touch one to the keyboard.

Let's flip things around. I could say that the Packers were lucky that Seattle put them in a position to win (I don't believe that, but I could say it). The Packers then removed their good luck through a series of bad decisions and poor execution: Was it bad luck for the Packers that they decided not to return the interception that could have iced the game? Was it bad luck that McCarthy decided to run three straight plays when a first down and a field goal would have won it? Was it bad luck that McCarthy apparently failed to emphasize that blockers had to block on onside kicks and that there was a player behind them ready to catch it? Was it bad luck that they somehow allowed Wilson to through a helium ball up in the air and complete the 2-point conversion, or was it just poor execution by the two players who were standing around while the ball was clearly floating through the air in their direction? Were any of McCarthy's decisions bad luck?

freakhappy · #9 01-29-2015, 02:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Runscott

nevermind...long, windbag response deleted.

I just got lucky and took a shower. About to get lucky and brush my teeth, then plan to get lucky and go out for coffee.

Luckily, I will not bring my computer

This response is why Scott is my 2nd favorite net54er...

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