Are some cards too rare for their own good?

[darwinbulldog]

What do you suppose accounts for the prices of T231 cards (which do not suffer from being too rare) compared to other extreme rarities? Is it just Burdick's approval?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

What do you suppose accounts for the prices of T231 cards (which do not suffer from being too rare) compared to other extreme rarities? Is it just Burdick's approval?

Being a cataloged set adds a lot to the value, imo. Of course I am biased .....but if either of the 2 known (physical) specimens were sold it's really a crap shoot as to what they would sell for. I think there is a great chance I wouldn't recoup what I have into it. That's ok as I didn't get it for resale I got it to be able to complete the T cards.

[steve B]

With most collectibles there's stuff that's too rare for its own good. It's not as bad in fields where nearly every item is unique like very old furniture. But for anything that was sort of mass produced being really rare is something that usually holds down the price.

Some of that is the uncataloged stuff being a bit of a question mark to most collectors. If it's not cataloged, is it real? Is it actually rare? Or is it simply a somewhat hard to find thing that isn't really recognized? Look at how many cataloged items people post questions about. if there weren't places like this the uncataloged stuff would be even more of a mystery.

Another thing is that a lot of collectors want to "complete" something. And the impression of non-collectors is even more geared towards "completion" A friend of mine that I was showing cards to asked how many sets I'd completed. When I told him I'd only completed a few modern sets he said "Oh, so it's not that good of a collection then?" That required more explaining than he had patience for.
With really rare stuff "completing" any set is something that only happens with a lot of luck, a lot of effort or a lot of money. Usually it takes all three.

I've been involved with other hobbies where nearly all the items are more rare than a Wagner. Fortunately for me they're not popular collecting fields. One has gotten more expensive than I can handle, the other takes more time but has prices that are extremely variable.

For something to get really valuable I think it needs to have three things going for it.

"Rare" but not so rare only a handful of people can imagine they have a chance of findng one.
A really popular subject
A really great backstory.

The Wagner
The Plank
The upside down airplane stamp

And to a lesser degree
The Doyle
The 52 Mantle.

All have that going for them.

Consider, the 52 Mantle is twice as common as all but two other 52 high numbers. But costs a lot more.

The Doyle is a bit of a rule breaker. Usually I'd say it's too rare. But if you figure that everyone who can afford a Wagner needs the Doyle to complete the set that makes more sense. Of course, it should be more expensive, but the subject and backstory aren't quite as good as the others.

Personally I really like the very rare stuff. It's more fun to own and for someone with a small budget getting it requires a lot of both luck and knowledge. The rare stuff is like a big game hunters trophies in a way.


Steve B

[rhettyeakley]

Everything that has been said is true regarding cards that are too rare for their own good.

Here is a set of cards that I found pasted into a scrapbook dating to 1939 with other common gum cards. I have only ever seen one other grouping of these (ever) and a single or two over the years...I left one (unsoaked) on the scrapbook paper as a bit of provenance...




IMO they are some the best looking cards of the 1930's but who in the world would know what they were if I showed them to anyone?

[icollectDCsports]

Originally Posted by rhettyeakley

Everything that has been said is true regarding cards that are too rare for their own good.

Here is a set of cards that I found pasted into a scrapbook dating to 1939 with other common gum cards. I have only ever seen one other grouping of these (ever) and a single or two over the years...I left one (unsoaked) on the scrapbook paper as a bit of provenance...



IMO they are some the best looking cards of the 1930's but who in the world would know what they were if I showed them to anyone?

Wow. Those are very cool. Especially love seeing so many Nats.

[Orioles1954]

I've heard Bill Huggins say on several occasions, "the only thing rarer than that item is a buyer for it."

[Exhibitman]

Well, we're conflating concepts here.

I read Leon's OP as asking whether there are cards that are so scarce that they become obscure, not generally discussed in the hobby. I think that's true to some extent but also understandable. If a card is newly discovered there will be a flurry of discussion about it, the card will land in someone's collection, and there won't be anything left to say unless/until it surfaces again or someone finds another. What else is there to say?

Value is different, and in my view less a function of rarity than marketing. There is a great deal of ballyhoo in getting a card out there to create a demand for it. We collectors live on envy and that requires putting an item in the public eye to make it desirable, as well as there being a sufficient number of them to build to a critical mass of interest. Take the Baltimore News Ruth cards. Not very attractive, rather obscure, rare, super player. So why is it a six-figure card? Because they were marketed brilliantly in major auctions with tons of hype and advertising about them every time and there were enough of them out there to repeat the hype cycle several times. Had there been only one example, I don't think we would have the same pricing structure. And even so, the price of the card is a fraction of what a T206 Wagner costs and is roughly comparable to what you would have to pay to get a really crisp 1952 Mantle. The Wagner has the story and the legendary hype as being the key rarity from the key set of the prewar era, while the Mantle is the key card in the key set from the main company of the postwar era, even though multiple versions are in every major auction.