Historic vintage card values over the years???

[Huysmans]

Originally Posted by Stetson_1883

After collecting contemporary cards of the then 90's during my childhood, I sold everything off, waited about 20 years and have dove back into cards, only this time collecting quality graded, HOF rookies from the pre and post war era, up until the 1970's. I felt as though this was the best way to go if I wanted to try to view this hobby of mine as an "investment".

I have two questions for you old-time collectors out there....

1. Could you provide an overview of how the values of vintage baseball cards (from the eras mentioned above) have changed/shifted during the last 20 years?

I seem to remember vintage cards being worth a lot more in the 90's than they are today. Or have these cards remained relatively stable?

2. Can you expect any sort of price appreciation over the years with these cards? Ive checked out that Card Target website which goes back around 7 years, and I see relatively small increases in card prices. Throw in inflation, and cards seem to be a loser, investment wise! Granted Im not doing it entirely for price appreciation but I figure 20 years from t206's will be worth more then than now.

What does everyone think?

I think you'd be better off to view your collecting as a hobby rather than an investment.
Collect cards you like, as opposed to ones your hoping will rise in value, this way you'll love what you have and never be disappointed, especially regarding values.
I think that's one of the biggest problems with the hobby today, those in it looking only to make profits. The market gets inflated, and the supply of good vintage cards disappear into some wealthy individuals safety deposit box as a future "investment"
This is just my opinion...

Regards,
Brent

[Stetson_1883]

Yeah I totally hear you and do keep that in mind, as I only purchase cards whose beauty only really speaks to me. I would though be a bit disappointed if these cards declined in value by 50% when the oceans rise and the end of the world is here

[chipperhank44]

I would tend to agree with Leon's assessment, the extremely high end cards have done well for themselves.

I'm not sure that paying market value plus juice and sitting on cards is a wise investment unless you are buying some of the most desirable cards in the hobby. Being well researched and knowing more than your average collector is a far better way to make money in this hobby.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by chipperhank44

I would tend to agree with Leon's assessment, the extremely high end cards have done well for themselves.

I'm not sure that paying market value plus juice and sitting on cards is a wise investment unless you are buying some of the most desirable cards in the hobby. Being well researched and knowing more than your average collector is a far better way to make money in this hobby.

I should clarify my above thought a little. As I see it the technical grades are becoming less important as opposed to eye appeal. And that being said if you are playing the "my points are bigger than your points" registry game, then my thoughts are not meant towards you. I feel the Registry collecting is a little different than what most of us do, which is obtain the best looking card we can. I KNOW there are HIGH grade collectors and that is great if that is what you like, there is nothing wrong with them and they probably hold value a little better than lower grade, overall. But as our hobby matures it seems the eye appeal of cards is what holds value. And lastly I don't see why a small part of your investment strategy can't be cards, they are as good or better than most collectibles (to me anyway ).

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Leon

I should clarify my above thought a little. As I see it the technical grades are becoming less important as opposed to eye appeal. And that being said if you are playing the "my points are bigger than your points" registry game, then my thoughts are not meant towards you. I feel the Registry collecting is a little different than what most of us do, which is obtain the best looking card we can. I KNOW there are HIGH grade collectors and that is great if that is what you like, there is nothing wrong with them and they probably hold value a little better than lower grade, overall. But as our hobby matures it seems the eye appeal of cards is what holds value. And lastly I don't see why a small part of your investment strategy can't be cards, they are as good or better than most collectibles (to me anyway ).

+1. My study of various collectible fields over several decades indicates there are basically three factors that come into play in the appreciation equation: The collectible, to increase substantially in value, should be (1) rare, or very scarce; (2) possess significance; and (3) be in the best condition you can find and afford--eye appeal is critical here. If you think the card is ugly when you buy it, chances are prospective buyers when you want to sell it will also. The focus of demand will shift over time, as it has done in both cars and coins, but in both those fields, truly rare and significant items have generally continued to rise, showing little vulnerability to value cycles. Take, for example a prominent non-card example--a 1967 L88 (427 CID racing package; 560 horsepower) Corvette. They made just 20 of them, and most went to racers, in whose hands they were extremely successful, albeit subject to very hard use. If you had been looking for and been lucky enough to find one in the '80's, the purchase price would likely have been less than $20,000. Now, $3.75 --$4 million, all day long at any major auto auction. Same effect with significant dual purpose (street and road racing) Ferrari's, especially any example that actually competed in a significant race, such as Daytona or LeMans--$20 million plus is not unusual.

But try to stay ahead of the curve--everyone likes to buy while the market for a given item is rising, but better to have bought before that, when it was quiet. As to what cards may fall into that category, i.e., undervalued, that is up to you and your analysis--I have mine!

Best of luck,

Larry

PS: I don't believe that its wrong to want your cards to go up in value, as well as provide enjoyment. I'd like to leave a significant collection as a legacy to perhaps provide a college education for my granddaughter's children, or those of my niece and nephew, and also leave a big chunk of $$$ to serve God's missionary work. It's my last dream of achievement, and only time will tell if it works out!

[Stetson_1883]

[QUOTE=ls7plus;1340916]+1. My study of various collectible fields over several decades indicates there are basically three factors that come into play in the appreciation equation: The collectible, to increase substantially in value, should be (1) rare, or very scarce; (2) possess significance; and (3) be in the best condition you can find and afford--eye appeal is critical here.

Thanks Larry for the post. I've been collecting for some time but am relatively new to the vintage game.

What do you mean exactly when you say "rare"? I see a lot of people on here posting pics of their treasures which I think the common man collector may have have never seen before....old pre-war original photos, postcards and obscure tobacco cards etc. But would you consider t206's (like lets say a 5 Vic Willis Throwing) as being "rare", even though they are always on ebay? Along the same lines, would a Hank Aaron rookie card be considered rare? Would mid-graded Allen & Ginter cards be rare? Or would those cards needed to have a premium grade in order to be considered rare (8, 9)?

Is rare something you just can't find on ebay or a card show?

I'm simply trying to nail down the definition of "rare".

[darwinbulldog]

[QUOTE=Stetson_1883;1340959]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

+1. My study of various collectible fields over several decades indicates there are basically three factors that come into play in the appreciation equation: The collectible, to increase substantially in value, should be (1) rare, or very scarce; (2) possess significance; and (3) be in the best condition you can find and afford--eye appeal is critical here.

Thanks Larry for the post. I've been collecting for some time but am relatively new to the vintage game.

What do you mean exactly when you say "rare"? I see a lot of people on here posting pics of their treasures which I think the common man collector may have have never seen before....old pre-war original photos, postcards and obscure tobacco cards etc. But would you consider t206's (like lets say a 5 Vic Willis Throwing) as being "rare", even though they are always on ebay? Along the same lines, would a Hank Aaron rookie card be considered rare? Would mid-graded Allen & Ginter cards be rare? Or would those cards needed to have a premium grade in order to be considered rare (8, 9)?

Is rare something you just can't find on ebay or a card show?

I'm simply trying to nail down the definition of "rare".

We've had several discussions on this issue over the years. None of the specific cards you mentioned would be considered rare by many (any?) of us. Really, the only T206 that might qualify as rare by pre-war card standards is the Doyle variation. You'll find some difference of opinion here, but my general rule is that a specific card is rare if there are 5 or fewer copies of it and a set is rare if there are 50 or fewer surviving copies of all cards in the set.

If you're looking for a specific W600, many of those are rare, but the total population of W600s out there is well into the hundreds, so if you're just looking for a type card and any player will do, those aren't rare.

D355 Niagara Baking, W573 Cafe du Monde, T207 Red Cross -- those are rare not just for a specific player but for the entire set.

[Touch'EmAll]

The great thing about cards is that they are BOTH hobby and investment. This translates into a whole lot more fun than investment only holdings such as stocks. Come on, in reality anyone who plunks down a few hundred or a few thousand on a card cannot possibly tell themselves honestly that there is no investment motive, but just pure hobby fun and games.

As for values through time, I am really glad I went for top tier HOF'ers mostly of the first 5 members HOF plus few others, in minimum PSA 5 or equivalent. Nearly all the other cards, hold your breath, pray and rub your rabbits foot. Just my 2 cents.

And I see more of price difference between SGC and PSA lately. I am thinking its about time to send in a massive dollar value of several SGC cards to PSA for crossover. To increase collection value it is worth it, like it or not. But of course others may not agree, and thats just fine.

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

Originally Posted by Huysmans

I think you'd be better off to view your collecting as a hobby rather than an investment.
Collect cards you like, as opposed to ones your hoping will rise in value, this way you'll love what you have and never be disappointed, especially regarding values.
I think that's one of the biggest problems with the hobby today, those in it looking only to make profits. The market gets inflated, and the supply of good vintage cards disappear into some wealthy individuals safety deposit box as a future "investment"
This is just my opinion...

Regards,
Brent

Agreed! For me this is fun not investing.

[sandmountainslim]

Originally Posted by I Only Smoke 4 the Cards

Agreed! For me this is fun not investing.

I agree. I never even think of selling my beater T206's but I still think they ain't gonna get any cheaper. While more true for NM cards it is also still true for low grades of the classic sets. What is a ten dollar beater Jack Barry T206 will be a seventeen dollar beater Jack Barry T206 in a few years.

[1952boyntoncollector]

more and more historic cards are getting slabbed and the slabbed cards arent disappearing or getting in worse shape..

thus market will stay around the same except some of the current people interested are doing well in the economy the prices will rise..but eventually as less and less people are buying the cards, this lack of bid competiition will result in lower prices unless there are new people entering the vintage market......that shoudl happen when the kids growing up in the 1990s who really didnt collect cards become 40 years old or so....thats about 15 years from now.....the kids growing up in the 80s i feel are similiar to the kids in the 70s so that group should prevent the colllapse for the next 15 years...