Survival Rate of N172 Old Judge

[z28jd]

There is no player(including all his poses/variations) that comes anywhere close to 3000 examples, or even half that much. Some players have less than ten examples. I'd be very surprised if there were 100,000 Old Judge cards in existence.

[Fred]

John,

Can you please provide an estimate of how many Larry Corcoran cards are in existence? The total shame is that 80% of all known copies would be destroyed if a 2 square foot area were to be ignited.....

I've wondered the same thing myself. How many of these cards are still around.

[darwinbulldog]

I would guess there are at least 2 million T206s.

100,000 is probably a good estimate for OJs.

[sandmountainslim]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

I would guess there are at least 2 million T206s.

100,000 is probably a good estimate for OJs.

You could be right. When I got into T206 I figured they were like hen's teeth due to the age then I noticed I was having zero problem finding cards in my price range and realized they must have been produced in the multi millions

[oldjudge]

100,000 is way too much. There are roughly 2500 different poses, which would mean 40 copies each on average. This number might be right for the more common poses, but way high for most (some are unique or have less than five copies). My guess would be 30,000-40,000.

[ctownboy]

The question has to be asked then, how many do members of this board own?

Wouldn't that give a good estimate of what else might be out there?

Also, who owns (or maybe the top three to five collectors) the most N172's? Keith Olbermann?

I own none cards total (one pose, nine different players).

David

[Leon]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

100,000 is way too much. There are roughly 2500 different poses, which would mean 40 copies each on average. This number might be right for the more common poses, but way high for most (some are unique or have less than five copies). My guess would be 30,000-40,000.

Jay, I will never deny your expertise in N172. That being said, if I think of you and just 3-4 other guys, I probably get close to a third of the low number you said. My gut, from being in the hobby a few years, would lead me to believe the number is somewhere in the middle of your high estimate and 100,000. I am always the optimist in thinking there is a ton we have no idea about. And almost every month we hear about new finds of pre-war cards (if not Old Judges).....

[Tao_Moko]

We could estimate a population based on what's in circulation and documented through AH's, ebay, forums, shows, etc.. I think the real thing to look at is roughly how many surface annually and combine the estimated circulated qty and avg. documented new finds to determine what is a likey survival rate. The big unknown is how many were produced which will make projecting new finds difficult. The late eighties and early nineties sent everyone to their grandma's attic and a lot were exposed then. Ebay later brought more out of personal collections so I think we're going to see a steady but slow introduction of new finds.

My arbitrary guess is 60,000.