Do you worry about our hobby dying?

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by packs

I think the T206 is a time bomb. By now nearly everyone who wants a monster must have made a significant dent. And even if they haven't, I feel like they're out numbered by people who have. Once those sets hit the market 5 to 10 years from now, expect T206's to tank. Once the premier vintage set tanks, I'd expect all other vintage sets to tank too.

I think it would be really cool if they found some way to imitate the success of early sets. Perhaps they could create a set of cards distributed in something children buy. Maybe MLB teams up with Mead or some other school supplies manufacturer and distributes a set during back to school season.

Not so sure about this. The Monster Number Thread was initially populated with a lot of old sets (~old money). In three years the number of new collectors have increased year over year. Some sets have been sold and quickly absorbed by the young and the restless (and you know who you are).

The internet has changed the hobby, but I think for the better. TPGs have changed the hobby and facilitate the internet market despite their shortcomings. Old cards are antiques. I never saw a prewar card when I was a kid growing up in 50s. Babe Ruth et al seemed like ancient history then. Now I seem like ancient history. The vintage card market will survive into the foreseeable future.

What folks will be paying for Bowman Chrome RCs from 2012 one hundred years from now is another completely different topic.

[packs]

I don't know. I've been collecting pre-war for a long time though I'm relatively young for the Board. Ten years ago I knew guys who collected T206s but none that were monster hunters in the sense that we see today, where a guy might buy 60 cards in a month.

Precisely because the internet has made everything easier, people are putting this set together easier. More finished sets mean less people buying. Add to that the number of people who are racing to finish their set and the inevitable: you get bored with it and want to liquidate. I think 5 to 10 years from now you're going to see a sell off en masse of monsters.

[mark evans]

I'm not worried about the hobby dying because I'm 65 years old.

But, if I were 35, I think I might be concerned about the potential for a reduction in values in the foreseeable future due to the passing on of the baby boomers, possibly coupled with a general downturn in the economy. On the first point, I believe there are simply too many diversions for today's youth (and have been since the 70s) to create the demand necessary to maintain current values, especially as adjusted for inflation. I also think that rarities will hold their value longer than readily available cards.

[campyfan39]

I will be extremely interested to see what happens in about 20-30 years if I am still around (I'm 41) as many second generation collector's private collections may hit the market.
A lot of us are children of the father's who got into this thing back in the 80's in part to recapture their childhood. Who knows what our kids will do with all we have amassed?

[packs]

I think video game systems are the modern investment to make. Working Nintendo's, Genesis, N64's and the most popular games for them.

It's the same principal: connecting with your youth. The majority of people from my generation spent a ridiculous amount of time playing video games during their childhood.

[1952boyntoncollector]

There are many people who say in 20 years there could be a problem in terms of keeping any value...noone will ever say 5 years..when its a point where people say 5 years then they would be selling asap like it was tomorrow....massive run to the bank

so basically like all worries....its either 20 years down the line or immediate.....i think we are all good for 20 years...

[Texxxx]

I am more worried about me being put under than the hobby getting buried. If the cards tank before I go then it just means I can buy a lot more.

[ooo-ribay]

I think it will die, but I don't really care, as I collect for enjoyment, not for investment.

[exitmusicgreen]

Very interesting thread. I'm a 31-year-old collector who returned to the hobby late last year after about a 21-year hiatus. I know I'm not the only one.. in particular, many "born again" collectors stumble upon the world of modern cards via searching for collectibles of their favorite players via ebay, then finding it odd that modern cards are selling at unimagined prices, then doing research. That moment when things make sense opens up a whole new world.

So I think modern collecting has a role in producing + sustaining future interest.

As some have pointed out, the allure of vintage can emerge given the oft-maddening unpredictability of modern cards. I still collect modern due to the excitement factor plus feeling very connected to the game's current crop of players. But my (tiny yet growing) vintage collection gives me equal, if not more pride.

[bravesfan22]

Modern card collecting is very popular. Prospects are what people collect the most now, well invest in i should say. However even the "investors" usually have a player or team that they collect as well. The prospect buy and sell usually is what funds their personal collection pieces.

If you get on the blowout cards board or just look at ebay at modern topps or panini certified autograph card prices then you will see the hobby is alive in kicking and this side of the hobby holds a wide age group. Also a big bonus is I see a lot of parents that are involved with the hobby sharing it with their kids and doing the hobby together. Which is great!

I'm 26 and i mainly dabble in modern cards but my love for the history of baseball brought me to this board and started to get me into vintage cards as well. I think as people around my age learn more about the modern cards they end up looking into the vintage cards and wanting to learn and maybe collect them as well so I would say as long as card collecting on some aspect is happening then people will always end up supporting vintage cards as well.

I think the biggest movement we may see is people getting into vintage football cards instead of baseball due to the popularity of the NFL and modern football cards but who knows.

Between topps, bowman, panini and leaf there are well over 20 baseball products out per year. Same with football and basketball probably has atleast 10 products if not more and people open these by the case not just the box. I actually think the hobby is getting more popular in recent years thanks to things like case breaks. So again I guess to sum it up I think as long as modern card collecting is doing well their will be a steady flow of new vintage collecters as well. Just like most things, you start with the new stuff but you always go back to the roots.

-Adam