Do you worry about our hobby dying?

[packs]

I don't think this has been brought up in the thread yet.

For all of you who think the hobby will be fine, what do you think about the emergence of card museums and the same dealers at every show?

I've been going to White Plains shows for years. I rarely ever see a new vintage dealer. It is always the same five or six guys with the same material with the same stickers on them.

If the hobby is going to be fine and new blood will always pour in, how come there aren't any new dealers? Maybe this is just a product of White Plains. But I get the feeling there is stale blood at all the shows based on the post-show reports I read for other areas.

[ullmandds]

I have voiced my skepticism regarding the future of the hobby numerous times...ask archive! I think the rarities and hobby icons should be ok for the foreseeable future...although I DO feel that down the road...maybe 20-40 yrs from now there will be a glut of vintage...especially the common/not so desirable stuff which may drag down values across the board.

The hobby needs something new and exciting to drag youngsters with the collecting gene into the hobby.

Like at the very least all ballparks should give away cards to the kids atleast one time/yr(giveaway day). Or offer a card to every kid upon entering every or select home games with some form of lottery/raffle/prize/interactive activity at stake.

I think a "grassroots" movement at the ballparks could help.

[packs]

I think the T206 is a time bomb. By now nearly everyone who wants a monster must have made a significant dent. And even if they haven't, I feel like they're out numbered by people who have. Once those sets hit the market 5 to 10 years from now, expect T206's to tank. Once the premier vintage set tanks, I'd expect all other vintage sets to tank too.

I think it would be really cool if they found some way to imitate the success of early sets. Perhaps they could create a set of cards distributed in something children buy. Maybe MLB teams up with Mead or some other school supplies manufacturer and distributes a set during back to school season.

[glenv]

I agree with those that posted that we need cards that kids can afford. But it's hard for a kid to be happy with a 99 cent pack of plain cardboard when they see the shiny $5 pack. And what happened to the days of finding baseball cards in cereal boxes, on Hostess boxes, getting them from police officers, etc.? Are any national products still using cards as a promotion?

Like Pete said - : "Like at the very least all ballparks should give away cards to the kids at least one time/yr(giveaway day)."

[AMBST95]

The hobby will probably take a hit as the 20 and 30 somethings age and the older population dies off. Card collecting is less popular among kids for the last 10-20 years.

It will become more of a niche market but the market will be there. As mentioned earlier, card show attendance, brick and mortars, are all falling to the wayside. The business model just isn't good.

To judge the growth of the hobby though, how many new online venues are there for buying cards (ebay, auction houses, etc). There is definitely a market and that won't go away. It just is different now and the way to do business is different and will continue to change in the future.

Prices will probably hold steady but value will drop due to inflation. That's my prediction.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by packs

I think the T206 is a time bomb. By now nearly everyone who wants a monster must have made a significant dent. And even if they haven't, I feel like they're out numbered by people who have. Once those sets hit the market 5 to 10 years from now, expect T206's to tank. Once the premier vintage set tanks, I'd expect all other vintage sets to tank too.

I think it would be really cool if they found some way to imitate the success of early sets. Perhaps they could create a set of cards distributed in something children buy. Maybe MLB teams up with Mead or some other school supplies manufacturer and distributes a set during back to school season.

Not so sure about this. The Monster Number Thread was initially populated with a lot of old sets (~old money). In three years the number of new collectors have increased year over year. Some sets have been sold and quickly absorbed by the young and the restless (and you know who you are).

The internet has changed the hobby, but I think for the better. TPGs have changed the hobby and facilitate the internet market despite their shortcomings. Old cards are antiques. I never saw a prewar card when I was a kid growing up in 50s. Babe Ruth et al seemed like ancient history then. Now I seem like ancient history. The vintage card market will survive into the foreseeable future.

What folks will be paying for Bowman Chrome RCs from 2012 one hundred years from now is another completely different topic.

[packs]

I don't know. I've been collecting pre-war for a long time though I'm relatively young for the Board. Ten years ago I knew guys who collected T206s but none that were monster hunters in the sense that we see today, where a guy might buy 60 cards in a month.

Precisely because the internet has made everything easier, people are putting this set together easier. More finished sets mean less people buying. Add to that the number of people who are racing to finish their set and the inevitable: you get bored with it and want to liquidate. I think 5 to 10 years from now you're going to see a sell off en masse of monsters.

[mark evans]

I'm not worried about the hobby dying because I'm 65 years old.

But, if I were 35, I think I might be concerned about the potential for a reduction in values in the foreseeable future due to the passing on of the baby boomers, possibly coupled with a general downturn in the economy. On the first point, I believe there are simply too many diversions for today's youth (and have been since the 70s) to create the demand necessary to maintain current values, especially as adjusted for inflation. I also think that rarities will hold their value longer than readily available cards.

[campyfan39]

I will be extremely interested to see what happens in about 20-30 years if I am still around (I'm 41) as many second generation collector's private collections may hit the market.
A lot of us are children of the father's who got into this thing back in the 80's in part to recapture their childhood. Who knows what our kids will do with all we have amassed?

[1952boyntoncollector]

There are many people who say in 20 years there could be a problem in terms of keeping any value...noone will ever say 5 years..when its a point where people say 5 years then they would be selling asap like it was tomorrow....massive run to the bank

so basically like all worries....its either 20 years down the line or immediate.....i think we are all good for 20 years...

[Texxxx]

I am more worried about me being put under than the hobby getting buried. If the cards tank before I go then it just means I can buy a lot more.