Do you worry about our hobby dying?

[JollyElm]

I certainly see the death knell coming. Whereas in my youth (during the 70's) we collected like crazy, always buying more cards with whatever nickels and dime we could rustle up. After we got our cards home and sorted everything into teams, the very first thing we'd do is trade with our friends, trying to get our favorite players and complete that year's set. Flipping cards was also the norm and yes, you'd put the scrubby players into your bicycle spokes to make that great noise. This is what summers were about and nobody, I mean NOBODY, cared about condition or centering. We would wrap our cards in rubber bands or put bunches of them in our back pockets.

Fast forward to today. A kid goes into a baseball card store, spends the money his mom or dad gave him on a ridiculously overpriced pack of cards. When he finds the ubiquitous insert, he immediately tilts it in the light, checking out the corners and what not and says to his friends, "This is definitely a 9, maybe a 9.5. Hand me that Beckett over there." Does he trade, flip or do anything else but care about the value of the card?? No frickin' way. And before anyone else even has a chance to touch that card, he has it in a soft sleeve and a top loader.

So it's tough to see how these kids will, as they grow older, develop an actual appreciation for the cards themselves. How they tie into the great game of baseball and the wonderment of their youth. They might as well just spend their money on gold instead, like William Devane is always yapping about in those commercials.

[Mountaineer1999]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

I certainly see the death knell coming. Whereas in my youth (during the 70's) we collected like crazy, always buying more cards with whatever nickels and dime we could rustle up. After we got our cards home and sorted everything into teams, the very first thing we'd do is trade with our friends, trying to get our favorite players and complete that year's set. Flipping cards was also the norm and yes, you'd put the scrubby players into your bicycle spokes to make that great noise. This is what summers were about and nobody, I mean NOBODY, cared about condition or centering. We would wrap our cards in rubber bands or put bunches of them in our back pockets.

Fast forward to today. A kid goes into a baseball card store, spends the money his mom or dad gave him on a ridiculously overpriced pack of cards. When he finds the ubiquitous insert, he immediately tilts it in the light, checking out the corners and what not and says to his friends, "This is definitely a 9, maybe a 9.5. Hand me that Beckett over there." Does he trade, flip or do anything else but care about the value of the card?? No frickin' way. And before anyone else even has a chance to touch that card, he has it in a soft sleeve and a top loader.

So it's tough to see how these kids will, as they grow older, develop an actual appreciation for the cards themselves. How they tie into the great game of baseball and the wonderment of their youth. They might as well just spend their money on gold instead, like William Devane is always yapping about in those commercials.

+1 spot on

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

I certainly see the death knell coming. Whereas in my youth (during the 70's) we collected like crazy, always buying more cards with whatever nickels and dime we could rustle up. After we got our cards home and sorted everything into teams, the very first thing we'd do is trade with our friends, trying to get our favorite players and complete that year's set. Flipping cards was also the norm and yes, you'd put the scrubby players into your bicycle spokes to make that great noise. This is what summers were about and nobody, I mean NOBODY, cared about condition or centering. We would wrap our cards in rubber bands or put bunches of them in our back pockets.

Fast forward to today. A kid goes into a baseball card store, spends the money his mom or dad gave him on a ridiculously overpriced pack of cards. When he finds the ubiquitous insert, he immediately tilts it in the light, checking out the corners and what not and says to his friends, "This is definitely a 9, maybe a 9.5. Hand me that Beckett over there." Does he trade, flip or do anything else but care about the value of the card?? No frickin' way. And before anyone else even has a chance to touch that card, he has it in a soft sleeve and a top loader.

So it's tough to see how these kids will, as they grow older, develop an actual appreciation for the cards themselves. How they tie into the great game of baseball and the wonderment of their youth. They might as well just spend their money on gold instead, like William Devane is always yapping about in those commercials.

+1

Then all the scammers are getting much better at what they do. I do not think it will be long before even the grading companies can not tell the difference between real and fake. Even graded cards now are a crap shoot, SGC and old PSA slabs are super easy to crack and put in a reprint, trimmed, or lower end card and then you have the guy in Mexico from the PSA scam.

[tschock]

I think it also depends on what is meant by the hobby dying. The only way it will guarantee to die of is if NO new blood comes into the hobby. None. Zero. Nada. Zilch.

Even if the new blood is only 1% of what it is now, I seriously doubt that pre-war cards will just "disappear". Someone will buy them up. Now that could mean that you might only get $100 for a card you spent $10K on years ago, but it won't mean the hobby of COLLECTING cards will die off. Unless your heirs plan on burning the cards for fuel rather than getting $0.01 on the dollar.

So if you mean the hobby as card COLLECTING, then no. If you mean the hobby as a business or means to make money, then maybe.

[Section103]

If it would hurry up and die, then I'll be able to buy a lot more cards for a lot less money.

[sbfinley]

The hobby isn't going anywhere. I was talking with an old dealer a couple weeks ago and he complaining about the falling sky and how the hobby would be dead in 50 years. The whole "90's Bubble/Remember When/We're all dying off" story.

Sorry, but the hobby isn't dying. It's changing. Just because show attendance and brick n' mortar sells are down doesn't mean the hobby is. Pre-War and vintage cards are at an all time high and something is always pumping value wise. In modern issues companies push and sell anything from $1 packs to $800 boxes and they are all popular in some respect. Heck, a card shop out in California buys up graded cards and memorabilia and repackages it as mystery product and charges up to $8,000 a box for the stuff and it sells out almost instantly. The hobby is as strong as it ever has been. It's just different.

Is baseball the most popular sport in America now? Nope, and it likely won't be a long while at the least, but attendance remains strong in most baseball cities and from a earnings standpoint the franchises are exceptionally well off. It has become a regional sport with loyal fan bases who will sustain it for the immediate future. Importantly to MLB, the popularity of college baseball continues to grow incrementally it seems each year, which will increase MLB popularity in the future as fans with college allegiances will follow alumni in the pros. The length of time spent in the minors will dampen this fascination somewhat, but more and more prospects are MLB ready faster then in the past. Plenty of kids in baseball cities, and outside baseball cities, collect and more and more often adults are driven to the hobby even if they didn't collect in their youth. Many of these collectors start with modern issues and work their way back to vintage issues.

[mrvster]

+1...

baseball here to stay .

I see the future of card collecting to go toward vintage once the younger population develop....they will realize the actual "history" of these cards...

just will be evolution...

[Centauri]

I agree with whoever said the next 30-40 years are solid. I worry about the kids who are 10-15 years old right now.

I started collecting in 1986 because everyone else I knew also collected. We would get together and trade, discuss, try to build sets, etc. I think much of the hobby today is made up of my generation still buying the new cards, but now it is like buying scratch off lotto tickets - open a pack not aiming for the set, but the inserts, and the REALLY RARE inserts (hurl).

My son is 12, plays 4 sports, and I haven't heard or seen him or any of his friends talk about cards. Right now the hobby has leveled off from a steep decline, led by people like me who collected as a kid but now have some disposable income to chase their dreams from childhood. I plan to collect for a long time yet. But 40 years from now, who will be the buyers?

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Section103

If it would hurry up and die, then I'll be able to buy a lot more cards for a lot less money.

+1 Hopefully I can outlive the hobby. But I doubt it.

[chipperhank44]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

I certainly see the death knell coming. Whereas in my youth (during the 70's) we collected like crazy, always buying more cards with whatever nickels and dime we could rustle up. After we got our cards home and sorted everything into teams, the very first thing we'd do is trade with our friends, trying to get our favorite players and complete that year's set. Flipping cards was also the norm and yes, you'd put the scrubby players into your bicycle spokes to make that great noise. This is what summers were about and nobody, I mean NOBODY, cared about condition or centering. We would wrap our cards in rubber bands or put bunches of them in our back pockets.

Fast forward to today. A kid goes into a baseball card store, spends the money his mom or dad gave him on a ridiculously overpriced pack of cards. When he finds the ubiquitous insert, he immediately tilts it in the light, checking out the corners and what not and says to his friends, "This is definitely a 9, maybe a 9.5. Hand me that Beckett over there." Does he trade, flip or do anything else but care about the value of the card?? No frickin' way. And before anyone else even has a chance to touch that card, he has it in a soft sleeve and a top loader.

So it's tough to see how these kids will, as they grow older, develop an actual appreciation for the cards themselves. How they tie into the great game of baseball and the wonderment of their youth. They might as well just spend their money on gold instead, like William Devane is always yapping about in those commercials.

I think there are a number of younger collectors on this board (myself included) who obsessed over perfect corners, serial numbers, shiny refractors, and strong sub-grades. But sooner or later the allure of owning something that is actually rare and not just manufactured to create the appearance of rarity takes over and vintage collecting is the next step. Also, getting burned by a few can't miss prospects or dealing with the inevitable depreciation of modern cards eventually turns collectors eyes to the appealing predictability of the vintage market. Then, once you buy your first vintage card, you experience the history and the work of art you are holding and it's hook line and sinker. IMO, as long as there is a modern card market, there is a pipeline of new vintage collectors.

[kamikidEFFL]

From my experience I basically started my collecting in the 90's. It basically was a bunch of 99cent packs of cards and looking for the hot rookie card 89 UD Griffey oh was that the card to have. Anyway I watched the hobby change from looking to collecting the sets n hot rookie cards or inserts to trade with friends. Then it went to game used memorabilia cards and autographs. Very tough cards to pull, something like 1:150,000 packs haha. It was fun but now seeing the new hobby all people care about are the 3 color patch autograph rc #'d to 5 to be worth something. I could see the new stuff pricing themselves out. My opinion obviously.

Anyway, I wish I listened to my uncle when I was real young and focus on the vintage stuff nope I was a stupid kid. what I'm trying to say is I changed my train of thought and figured go back to where things were simple and easy. I think we may see the same thing. Plus I have been to a few shows and see a bunch of young kids interested in the 50's stuff and even earlier. If you have a small amount of young ones interested and fathers/mothers showing their own kids the hobby it will continue to move forward. We can only hope.