OT: Did Adam Dunn ruin his Hall chances

[pbspelly]

We discussed Hernandez on another thread, and so I will re-print what I wrote there, since I still believe it:

Originally Posted by pbspelly

I don't have anything against Olerud, and really don't have an opinion about whether he deserves to be in the Hall (and Bill James,for one, has made the argument that Olerud does), but as an avid Mets fan for decades, I can tell you that Hernandez meant much more to his team than Olerud. Besides his fielding and hitting, Hernandez was the first team captain in Mets history and really kept a young, and notably rambunctious, team together. He was known for counseling pitchers during tight situations, a job usually designated for the shortstop, and even called pitches for some of the young guys.

His value is reflected in the MVP voting. Hernandez was named on the ballot eight different times, winning it once and coming close two other times. Olerud was listed only twice, coming in third in his best year.

And while Olerud was certainly an excellent fielding first baseman, Hernandez was so adept on bunts and at throwing to all bases that he changed the position. The Mets even used to have him handle outfield relay throws sometimes instead of the second baseman (although with Gregg Jeffries and Wally Backman at second, that is a bit more understandable). As one commentator has stated, "If you never saw him play, it's hard to describe how a first baseman can be such an impact player in the field. Just saying he won eleven consecutive Gold Gloves doesn't do him anything near justice. He was a master at fielding bunts, often cutting down the runner at second, and covered an enormous amount of ground. He covered a multitude of sins handling throws. Who else could hold together an infield that sometimes included Wally Backman at second, Howard Johnson at third, and Kevin Mitchell at short - on a first place team"

Bill James even devised a stat based on Hernandez, after figuring out that one way to measure a first baseman's range was to count assists at all bases other than first, and that Hernandez was making 20-30 more outs per season than the average team. He named it, "The Keith Hernandez Breakthrough.“

According to one sabermetric stat (Total Zone Runs), Hernandez's defense saved 117 runs in his career, the most ever for a first baseman. Olerud comes in fourth at 97, still excellent, but nearly 20% behind.

All this having been said, Hernandez still has to answer for a few things. Besides the short career and the admitted drug use, many consider his mustache and his "Just For Men" ads unpardonable.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by sago

Hernandez is GOAT fielding first baseman. His range made the entire infield better. Overall better than Olerud.

If Hernandez is the best-fielding 1B of all-time, Olerud is only a hair behind.

Offensively, Olerud hit 93 more homers in 146 more games. They had essentially the same batting average (.296 vs .295) with Olerud having a higher slugging percentage (.465 vs .436) and essentially the same OPS+ (129 vs 128). Hernandez won a (shared) MVP but never had a season that approached Olerud's 1993 - .363 average, .473 OBP, .599 slug, OPS+ of 186.

Originally Posted by pbspelly

According to one sabermetric stat (Total Zone Runs), Hernandez's defense saved 117 runs in his career, the most ever for a first baseman. Olerud comes in fourth at 97, still excellent, but nearly 20% behind.

So, defensively, the difference between them was 20 runs over the course of 2100 games (or so). A run every 105 games. I believe that difference would qualify as "statistically insignificant".

And, in the end, we're talking about what is, by FAR, the least-important (other than pitcher) and easiest position defensively. But among the guys who played that position, we're talking about Hernandez and Olerud - the elite of the elite defensively. They are really, really close defensively and really, really close offensively. If anything, Olerud was the best offensive player. And yet there are folks who advocate for Hernandez to be in the HOF but dismiss Olerud out-of-hand. That doesn't compute.

[sago]

Hernandez had a shorter career than Olerud, but still finished with higher career totals for putouts and assists. And while Hernandez did not ever hit .363 (.344 in his MVP year is pretty good), outside of a .350 plus year, neither did Olerud.

And pretty sure left field is less important and easier than first base.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by sago

Hernandez had a shorter career than Olerud, but still finished with higher career totals for putouts and assists. And while Hernandez did not ever hit .363 (.344 in his MVP year is pretty good), outside of a .350 plus year, neither did Olerud.

Yes, Hernandez had more putouts and assists. A lot more. You think playing in the era of astro turf might have something to do with the putouts? Perhaps. Regardless, I've never made the argument that they were equal defensively. Hernandez is universally regarded as the GOAT at first. No problem with that. But Olerud was really, really close (see the above "runs saved" stat).

As for their offense...I don't quite follow. You're saying, "Sure, Hernandez hit that well but neither did Olerud...except that other time that he did." So Hernandez had his 1979 but Olerud had 1993 and 1998 that were both better.

Originally Posted by sago

And pretty sure left field is less important and easier than first base.

How do I know first base is easier and less important than LF? Cuz Mo Vaughn, David Ortiz, and Miguel Cabrera all play(ed) 1B and would have no prayer of ever being able to play LF.

[sago]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Yes, Hernandez had more putouts and assists. A lot more. You think playing in the era of astro turf might have something to do with the putouts? Perhaps. Regardless, I've never made the argument that they were equal defensively. Hernandez is universally regarded as the GOAT at first. No problem with that. But Olerud was really, really close (see the above "runs saved" stat).

As for their offense...I don't quite follow. You're saying, "Sure, Hernandez hit that well but neither did Olerud...except that other time that he did." So Hernandez had his 1979 but Olerud had 1993 and 1998 that were both better.



How do I know first base is easier and less important than LF? Cuz Mo Vaughn, David Ortiz, and Miguel Cabrera all play(ed) 1B and would have no prayer of ever being able to play LF.

Normalize for American League being easier to hit in if you want to argue about Astroturf. Putting a bunch of slow guys in left field is silly. What is also silly is comparing fielding bunts, sharper reaction times, and a host of other pitch by pitch skills versus, essentially, catching fly balls and making the shortest relay and throws to home of any outfield position.

Anyway, agree to disagree.

[ejharrington]

If you look at the JAWS system (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_1B.shtml) a statistical case can be made that Hernandez is more than a borderline HOFer. There are 11 HOF 1B ranked ahead of him (Gehrig, Foxx, Anson, Connor, Brouthers, Mize, F. Thomas (DH), McCovey, Murray, Greenberg, and Sisler). There are 7 HOF 1B ranked lower than him (Terry, Beckley, Perez, Cepeda, Chance, Bottomley, Kelly). So statistically and quantitatively, he is right in the mix. More subjectively, other than the fact that I watched him play for five years and considered him the best player on the Mets, the fact that he won an MVP, was a key member of two different World Champions, was the greatest fielder of all-time at 1B, and IS ALREADY famous, he is more than worthy of being in the Hall of Fame.

[Peter_Spaeth]

OLERUD.

Black Ink Batting - 7 (326), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink Batting - 51 (504), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 68 (292), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 39 (180), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS First Base (20th), 58.0 career WAR/38.9 7yr-peak WAR/48.5 JAWS
Average HOF 1B (out of 19) = 65.9 career WAR/42.4 7yr-peak WAR/54.2 JAWS

HERNANDEZ

Black Ink Batting - 14 (170), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink Batting - 118 (173), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 86 (215), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 32 (266), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS First Base (18th), 60.0 career WAR/41.0 7yr-peak WAR/50.5 JAWS
Average HOF 1B (out of 19) = 65.9 career WAR/42.4 7yr-peak WAR/54.2 JAWS


Let's just say NO to both and move on.

[ejharrington]

I guess Ozzie Smith shouldn't be in the HOF either, huh?


Black Ink Batting - 2 (617), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink Batting - 51 (504), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 142 (95), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 35 (219), Average HOFer ≈ 50

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Let's just say NO to both and move on.

That's exactly the point I'm making.