September pickups

[Shoebox]

Bill, is all your prospecting done by targeted buys of individual cards or are you opening product as well?

[the 'stache]

Donnie-

Here's my Wily Peralta 2012 Topps Chrome rainbow. This should give you a good idea of why I collect these things.

In order:

base auto
refractor auto 456/499
blue refractor auto 12/199
black refractor auto 96/100
sepia refractor auto 51/75
yellow refractor auto 44/50
red refractor auto 4/25
atomic refractor auto 9/10




Ugh, these pictures look terrible for some reason, almost like they were compressed after uploading. I'll reload them in a bit.

They're really incredible in person. Like I mentioned before, a scanner just doesn't do justice to these because of their reflective properties.

Originally Posted by Shoebox

Bill, is all your prospecting done by targeted buys of individual cards or are you opening product as well?

Hi Dustin. When I started out, I was opening boxes, and I was getting nowhere. I was really still learning about the product, so I think I cracked 5 boxes to start, and I didn't pull anybody of note. Nearly $400 spent. I got a lot of really great veteran players to keep, but since I was looking for autographs of top prospects, I didn't do well at all. Since then, I've bought the cards I wanted individually 100% of the time. If I buy a box to break, it's just for the fun of it. I'm going to go to my local card shop tomorrow in Grapevine, and buy a box, maybe two, unless I find a lot of individual vintage cards I really want. Otherwise I'm going there to look for 1975 Topps singles.

I have my own way of prospecting, and since I'm thinking about doing it again, only this time to sell some cards to augment the money I have to spend on pre-war and vintage, I will be testing some ideas I have. The two years I prospected heavily, 2011 and 2012, I did an Excel spreadsheet where I tracked both Baseball America and the MLB.com (Jonathan Mayo) top 100 prospects. Based on the ranking of a player within one or both lists, I assigned an overall averaged score. The first year, I think Bryce Harper was #1, Mike Trout #2 and Matt Moore #3. I tried to purchase as many of the top 100 players in Bowman Chrome autos. Not all the players had one. Some had not yet had one released. A few others did not have an agreement with Topps, electing instead to sign with Donruss/Panini. Then, I looked to buy something like their Donruss Elite autograph. I also bought other prospects that I felt would make the list next year, or cards for prospects I thought were highly undervalued. I tracked their progress through the minor leagues during the season. I watched them play their minor league games. I kept track of stories in Baseball America. I researched scouting reports for players, using Baseball Prospect Nation primarily, though the writer is now with another site. I have to check where he's gone.

I ended up with about 85% of the 2011 set in Bowman Chrome autos, and slightly lower for 2012. It becomes slightly easier when players repeat on the list. Somebody like Travis D'Arnaud of the Blue Jays, and later the Mets, climbed up the list over a three year span. Others will debut high, and be at the Major League level within a year or so. Jose Fernandez was like that. And the Fernandez I bought will be going to Beckett here in Dallas. It's as close to being a perfect 10 card as there is. It is flawless.



Prospecting can be very profitable, so long as you don't fall in love with your cards. I just bought another Daniel Norris base auto for $10 delivered. That is my absolute ceiling. I'll sell it if I can get $30. Now, $20 isn't a huge profit by any means, but I could always hold it a bit longer and try for a higher profit margin. That's where the game is played. Go for more, or take a great return, and get out. He could have a great 2014, and make a run at the AL Rookie of the Year. Or, he could hurt his arm, and have to get Tommy John. With pitchers, especially, you have to be careful. This is where I spend a lot of time reading scouting reports. How clean is a pitcher's delivery. How repeatable? How much unnecessary torque does their motion put on their arm? Some pitchers have very fluid deliveries where their throwing motion is natural, and they are low risk. Some pitchers will have inconsistent deliveries. They may have great stuff, but if they are putting undue stress on their arm, then I think twice about investing. But no matter how careful I am, there are pitchers that just get hurt. Off the top of my head, I've bought Matt Harvey, Kyle Gibson, Dylan Bundy, Jarrod Parker, Casey Kelley, Jose Fernandez and Jameson Taillon that have had Tommy John. Fernandez and Bundy were the only ones not in the MLB.com top 50. There are more, but those just come to mind. And these all were top 25, top 50 prospects in baseball, and all have gone under the knife. That's why I'm shying away from pitchers.

I hope that helps some, guys. Feel free to ask me any other questions you might have. I'm happy to help!

[zachtruitt]

Great posts Bill! I will be getting my yearly batch of Bowman Chrome the week after next but I hope the huge (75 confirmed auto subjects) doesn't dilute this year's product. Let me know if you pick up anything nice. Thanks!

[Mountaineer1999]

Good stuff Bill! This will serve as a great resource and reference point for me moving forward. I'll post my Norris card here once I do a little eBay research to see some fair prices. Thanks again for all your help.

[the 'stache]

Thanks, guys. In the next week or so, I'm going to sit down and rescan all my prospect autos. I have about 1/3 of them in one of my photo galleries here on the site. I have a lot more to do yet, and I'm going to get cleaner scans. It might help you guys see what I've been doing.

I got that Norris refractor auto for $15 delivered a couple years ago. I bet before long, that card will be going for $60. That's where the money is. If you can afford to buy some of these really cheap, and hold them, you'll make a great return if you can avoid the temptation to sell them once you get any kind of a profit. My problem is that I always end up liking the cards I get. So, I've started buying extras just to sell. But I keep one for myself.

One player I think has a lot of upside, and is already in the Majors, is Devin Mesoraco. He was a top 25 prospect as recently as 2012. Then he got to the Majors, and had some flashes, but never put it together. This year, he finally did, and he's been excellent. He's got a .914 OPS. He's hitting .282 with 24 doubles, 23 home runs and 74 RBI in just 105 games. I figure he'd have had at least 35 homers if he'd been able to play the entire season. I think he will next year. This man can flat out hit, and even when he misses on balls, they still fly into the stands. Most people that watch baseball don't know just how much power Mesoraco has. I think his pure power is comparable to that of Giancarlo Stanton's. He doesn't hit it quite as far-yet, but I think he can get close. The man is that strong.