An evidence based discussion about the players who've been overlooked for Cooperstown

[brewing]

Dick Allen, and that double combo from Detroit.

[BearBailey]

This topic becomes more important as Frank Thomas was just elected and the potential for Edgar Martinez or David Ortiz in the future who are true 1 dimensional players as full time DHs might be elected in the future. Defense is just as important as offense but gets no credit.

[clydepepper]

Since defense has been prevalent in this thread, how about a guy who is generally considered the best modern day outfielder Andruw Jones.

His offensive stats come up short- .254 BA, 1933 hits, 434 homers

however...his defense, oh his defense was something to behold!

On the All-Time Career list for dWAR, 47 of the top 50 are Shortstops, Third-Basemen, and Catchers.

The other three are two Hall-of-Fame Second-Basemen, Mazeroski (23.9) and Fox (21.0)...and one outfielder, Andruw (24.1)

It should be pointed out that infielders and catchers have the big advantage in dWAR in that they have more total chances per game than outfielders. This makes Andruw's ranking all the more impressive.

If Mazeroski and Fox deserve to be in, and I realize that has been a hot topic, certainly Andruw deserves his shot. His big disadvantage is that his peers (eligible outfielders) will be judged primarily on their superior offensive stats...so this could be a push.

[the 'stache]

There are certainly some new metrics, both offensive and defensive, that I am learning on the fly. I've yet to find one metric that was all inclusive. Even when you compare something like WAR, or the components, offensive and defensive WAR, there are other things that are getting left out. The Ozzie Smith to Belanger comparison was the obvious comp because they both were clearly defensive first players, and among the best, if not the best, at their position defensively in their generation. But while Ozzie Smith's offensive output was not anywhere near the output of some of today's shortstops like Troy Tulowitzki, or even Derek Jeter, it was still better than Belangers. Ozzie was better, and he played longer. Plus, he brought a speed component that Belanger really didn't have. I think he stole about three times as many bases.

Part of the reason why I want to do this as a discussion is that I invite other people who love analyzing baseball statistics as I do to jump into the conversation, and bring up things that I might have missed, or may have just glossed over. There are so many new methods of evaluating play, so it makes for an interesting discussion while at the same time it proves educational for me. One day soon, I'll be able to rattle off these new metrics like I created them. But I'm not there yet. So while I learn, and maybe the rest of us consider players that we might not have before, it's fun for everybody. Plus, if we do look at somebody who has been considered for Cooperstown before, but passed over, maybe these new metrics, and a second (or third) look will change some minds. The baseball community is a pretty tight-knit one. When I read stories online, you often see one writer commenting on, or expanding on something that another writer may have commented on. There's no telling who will read this. If some compelling evidence is provided, I wouldn't at all be surprised if it made its way to somebody with the ability to shape a player's Hall of Fame fortunes. The internet isn't like real life. If I wanted to meet John Thorn, Major League Baseball's official historian, I'd have to plan a trip, or attend a function I knew he'd be at, and hope for a chance encounter. But if you write a fascinating article, word of mouth can spread on the internet. This is the age where videos "go viral". Well, my ultimate aim is to blog on my own website, a website that will be devoted to two things-our hobby, and the sport that has birthed our hobby. I love both passionately, and these somewhat informal chats we hold, prove to be nice warm ups for me.

As I've said before many times, baseball, more than any other sport, lends itself to statistical analysis. The other sports will evolve over time. Pro Football has evolved, and where offenses used to be run first, it's clear that passing offenses have become the norm in the game. But now, I think, you're starting to see a shift back to the old smash mouth brand of football. But baseball, though it has had periods where pitching or hitting dominated, has stayed pretty much the same. Athletes are bigger, stronger and faster now, but the game has a way of still rewarding the great players, not necessarily the greatest athletes. No matter how fast you are, or how far you can hit a baseball, the very best hitters are still going to make an out 7 out of 10 times they come to the plate.

Each time we focus on a different player, you get more people involved in the discussion. And with more people in that discussion, the conversation gets more and more interesting.

Minoso ought to be fun. I'm still working on him, but I'm a little surprised thus far by how well he's matched up against some of the other hitters in his generation. The Packers have lost, so now I can get back to it.

Carl Mays
Dick Allen
Dale Murphy
Andruw Jones
Dave Parker
Omar Vizquel

Some good players coming up.

[the 'stache]

By the way, if you've never read John Thorn's MLB Blog, I highly recommend it. If you are a fan of Ken Burns' Baseball documentary, you will recognize him. He has a real flair with the pen (well, the keyboard). He goes way back into the game's history, and brings long forgotten players to life.

MLB Blog of official baseball historian John Thorn

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

Since defense has been prevalent in this thread, how about a guy who is generally considered the best modern day outfielder Andruw Jones.

Jones is one we will definitely look at.

[the 'stache]

Minnie Miñoso, left fielder
Saturnino Orestes Armas (Arrieta) Minoso (Cuban Comet)
Cleveland Indians (1949, 1951, 1958-1959)
Chicago White Sox (1951-1957, 1960-1961, 1964, 1976, 1980)
St. Louis Cardinals (1962)
Washington Senators (1963)


Career stats


The next player we are looking at is a name that is still revered in the city of Chicago 50 years after he last played for the White Sox. Or, 34 years since he last played for the Sox if you include his little 2 game publicity stunt in 1980. Regardless of when Minoso's career actually ended, one thing is certain-he has more than met the required 5 year "cooling off" period after the end of his career to be considered for the Hall of Fame. And considered he was. Minoso received 1.8% of the vote in 1964, and was dropped from the ballot. Ah, but then Minoso played again in 1976. 3 games. 8 at bats at the age of 50. He even got a single in one game playing DH against the Angels. This meant he would have a fresh shot at the BBWAA. He played again in 1980 at the age of 54, and went 0-2 at the plate. But five years later, he was again eligible for the Hall of Fame. Where he got less than 2% of the vote the first time, he received 20.9% of the vote in 1986. In 1988, he topped out at 21.1%. Then his numbers slowly dropped off. In 1999, he received 14.7% of the vote, and fell off the ballot.

Minnie Minoso has been called "Mr. White Sox". Though he only played 1,373 games for the White Sox, Minoso was exceedingly popular in Chicago. He was the first black player to make the White Sox team in 1951. Before getting his first shot in the Majors in 1949, Minoso was a star third baseman in the Negro Leagues. Minoso could do it all. He won one of the original 9 Rawlings Gold Glove Awards, which were first awarded in 1957. Minoso would win two more Gold Gloves for his play in left field. He was the American League Rookie of the Year runner up in 1951 when he hit .326 in 146 games. Minoso scored 112 runs, got 173 hits including 34 doubles, 14 triples and 10 home runs. He drove in 76 runs, and had a .922 OPS. Minoso's 14 triples led the American League, as did his 31 stolen bases. Minoso was named to the AL All Star Team, and ended up 4th in the American League MVP vote. He started the season in Cleveland, and was traded to Chicago after 8 games with the Tribe. For the next six years, he was one of the best players in the American League. He went to 4 more All Star Games, hitting .305 with an .874 OPS over that span. Minoso was sent back to Cleveland for the 1958 and 1959 seasons, before going back to Chicago in 1960. For that ten year span, Minoso was one of the most exciting players in baseball. Between 1951 and 1960, Minoso hit .307 with 987 runs scored, 291 doubles, 78 triples, 165 home runs and 895 RBI. He also stole 184 bases, and walked 700 times against only 476 strikeouts. He had an .873 OPS during that period. Minoso would be 35 the next season, and after playing in the Negro Leagues, and then 1,500 games in the Major Leagues, he started to slow down. But Minoso was one of the very best talents in the American League while he played. He led the league in hits once, in doubles once, in triples three times, in stolen bases three times, and in total bases once. He hit .300 or better eight times, scored 100 or more runs four times, and drove in more than 100 runs four times also.

Minoso's career wasn't as long as some of the other stars during his era, and I think that has hurt his Hall of Fame chances. He only had 6,579 career at bats. But he had 1,963 hits, and a career .298 average when he retired. He also had an outstanding .848 career OPS.

To really measure Minoso's greatness, we have to compare his play against the men that were in the game at the same time. Minoso had substantial playing time for the first time in 1951. In 1963 he played in 109 games, and then only 30 games in 1964.

Let's compare Minoso's play against the other Major Leaguers playing between 1950 and 1965. Minoso had over 6,500 at bats in this period, but to truly measure his effectiveness, we want to allow players that might have been starting off, or ending their careers as well as those who spent their prime years in baseball at the same time Minoso played. To do this, I will include any Major League hitters who had 3,000 or more at bats in this 16 year period.

There are a total of 143 Major Leaguers who had 3,000 or more at bats between 1950 and 1965. This is a pretty good sampling size. The first thing I looked at was batting average. To some an outdated metric, but still one of my favorites. Before you start looking at things like OBP, and power or run production, hitting is the one fundamental all good offensive players should master. Before a player can hit home runs, they need to make solid contact. They need to be able to direct a ball in a chosen direction. Of the 142 other hitters to meet our at bat requirement, only fourteen had a higher batting average than the .299 Minoso put up. That sounds pretty good. But when you consider the names on the list ahead of him-Ted Williams, Roberto Clemente, Stan Musial, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Jackie Robinson, Al Kaline, Orlando Cepeda, George Kell, Frank Robinson, Richie Ashburn, Mickey Mantle, Vada Pinson and Harvey Kuenn, fourteenth sounds really good.



Of those 14 greats, only Harvey Kuenn and Vada Pinson are not in the Hall of Fame. Kuenn hit .303 and Pinson .302. Now, we come to the next metric. Minoso wasn't Mickey Mantle. He wasn't a home run hitter, though he did above average power. Before a player's on base percentage was really tracked, how did he do at just getting on base. Getting on base by a hit, a walk, or being hit by a pitch-it doesn't matter. Minoso was 12th best in the Majors over this 15 year period. Some of the same usual suspects are ahead of Mr. Minoso. Mantle, Williams, Robinson, Musial. Some of the greatest players not only of these decades, but any decades. And Minoso is on par with these greats. Minoso is outperforming Duke Snider, Enos Slaughter, Hank Aaron, Eddie Mathews, and Al Kaline. Hall of Famers all.



Now, Minoso did fall down the list for slugging average, finishing 43rd. But he still beat out some pretty notable hitters-Roberto Clemente, Bobby Thomson, Frank Thomas, Jackie Jensen.

Let's then look at my favorite of the old metrics, OPS. Getting on base is one thing. Hitting for power is another. Players who excel at both are rare indeed. Minoso's .849 OPS is outstanding for any era. When we look at OPS +, which adjusts for the ballparks players play their games in, Minoso had the 20th best OPS + in baseball between 1950 and 1965. Better than Ernie Banks. Better than Yogi Berra, and Ted Kluszewski. Better than Vada Pinson and Roy Campanella. Better than Gil Hodges, and Ron Santo. Only two points behind Roger Maris, three points behind Al Kaline. Four behind Jackie Robinson. Minoso was a rare talent.



Minoso's specialty was extra base hits. He would never win a home run title. But he consistently hit extra bases in the bunches. In 1954, though he only hit 19 home runs, he led the American League in total bases with 304. Besides the 19 home runs, he had 18 triples, and 29 doubles. Between 1950 and 1965, only 13 Major Leaguers had more extra base hits than Minoso. But he had only 178 games between 1962 and 1964, and he didn't play at all in 1965.

What happens if we just focus on the period of 1951 to 1961? An eleven year period when Minoso was a full time player. How did Minoso do in his prime?

Suddenly, Minnie Minoso is the 9th best hitter in the Major Leagues. Only eleven hitters in Major League Baseball hit over .300 in this period.



Now Minnie Minoso has the 15th best OPS + in Major League Baseball. That's from both leagues, remember.



Now, there is a flaw inherent with looking at statistics in this way. Make the sample size large enough by increasing the year span covered by your sample, and you start catching portions of a player's career. Obviously a report looking at the best player batting averages between 1951 and 1961 is going to include Roberto Clemente, who was a rookie in 1955, and who would have 3,000 at bats after seven seasons. But he had only started becoming "Clemente" in 1960. It was his second .300 season. His first year as an All Star. He hit for 16 home runs and drove in 94 RBI, not nearly his peak, but he was on his way to stardom. The next year he won the first of his twelve consecutive Gold Glove Awards. But Clemente's 104 OPS + in that eleven year span propped up Minoso in this sample. We know Clemente's career OPS + is 130, and he'd have an MVP season where he, like Robin Yount in 1982, just missed 30 home runs. But this sample is good enough to show that Minnie Minoso was one of the elite players in the game during the entirety of his career. So it begs the question, why is Minoso not a Hall of Famer?

Minoso only played in 1,859 games in the Major Leagues. 6,579 at bats and 1,963 hits might seem insufficient for Hall of Fame induction. But we have to remember he played in the Negro Leagues before he played in the Majors. He was the first black player for the Chicago White Sox. While he did not integrate baseball the way Jackie Robinson did in 1947, Minoso didn't face any less pressure when he played. He, too, played games south of the Mason-Dixon line, and racism, of course, was still a major issue in 1949. Minoso's career arc was quite similar to Jackie Robinson's. Robinson was a Rookie of the Year. Minoso was Rookie of the Year runner up to Gil McDougal of the Yankees. He hit 4 more home runs than Minoso, but Minoso beat him handily in every other category. Minoso was better that year, too, than the National League Rookie of the Year, Willie Mays. Minoso didn't win an MVP like Robinson did in 1949. But that was one of only two top 5 MVP finishes for Jackie. Minoso finished in the MVP top 5 four times. Robinson was a fine fielder, and had he played a little later, he'd have won Gold Gloves. Minoso did win Gold Gloves, three of them.

Minoso brought the same kind of electricity to the game. Robinson stole 197 bases. Minoso stole 205. Robinson was a career .311 hitter and had a career .883 OPS. Minoso hit .298 with an .848 career OPS.

It is my feeling that Minnie Minoso's play deserves another look by the Veterans Committee. He was a great hitter. He was exciting. He was an outstanding fielder, and while he wasn't the pioneer Jackie Robinson was, it didn't make the racism he faced throughout his career any less sickening. Minoso was an elite talent in the game for over a decade, and if he'd been able to start his career earlier, maybe he'd have already been in the Hall of Fame. Willie Mays, who started out at the same time in 1951, was 20 while Minoso was 25. I feel in this instance, the Veterans Committee should focus on the quality of Minnie Minoso's play, and not his final career numbers. With another 4 or five years, Minoso could have approached 3,000 hits by the time he ended his career. But he wasn't given the chance to play.

I'd love to hear your opinions, everybody. My writing of this look at Minnie Minoso's career might not have been up to my usual standards, as I have had a pretty rough night. But the numbers are solid. I think a lot of people will be surprised at just how good a player he was. He's certainly overlooked in discussions about the greats of baseball's golden era. Minoso was one of the most versatile players of his generation. He could make a great play in the field, steal a base, hit a home run, or ignite his team with a triple. And share any Minnie Minoso cards you might have. I just bought my first one a few weeks ago specifically for this discussion. This beautiful 1956 Topps will be part of the set I build one day soon.

[clydepepper]

I DO think this was up to your high standards and I very much hope that there are some Veterans Committee members who see it.

My favorite Minnie card is the 1953 Bowman Color, which I will post later.


John Thorn caught my attention on the Burns Special too. I am looking forward to reading my newest book purchase by him, 'Baseball in the Garden of Eden - The Secret History of the Early Game' - as soon as I finish reading Kirby Higbie's bio.

Again...Terrific info, Bill - Thank You!

[clydepepper]

Orestes 'Minnie' Minoso

53 MINNIE.jpg