Vintage Set Group Break Idea! Input Needed!

[kailes2872]

1955 is one of the 4 sets left that I am looking to complete and was planned as a 2015 project.

Since I generally overpay for cards and have zero negotiation skills and ability - paying $25 for an $8 card is something that I do nearly every day in my set building quests. So, for me, paying $25 for a slot will be like buying a common and anything above a common would be gravy

What I need to ask Eric Perry about is - what is the tipping point? If I spend $1000 (40 entries) on a $4000 set, do I stand a good percentage chance to get Kourfax or Clemente? Somewhere on my bookshelf is my college stats book and I could probably pull it out and figure the break even point. But, since I am going to buy this set in the coming year anyway, I was wondering what a good number would be. If I somehow spent 1000-2000 and landed both Koufax and Clemente, it would send me on my way to very good value for the set. If I missed on both of them, and got 40 really nice $8 commons, then I will be sleeping in the spare bedroom and apologizing to the MRS.

Regards,
Kevin

[Rich Klein]

Kevin with PSA8 I'd bet your $1K would not end up with just 40 commons.

You can figure out the stars in the set and the rookies and I'd pretty much say if you did not end up with one of the following cards (and I'd say a 20 percent of the set equals one of these stars)

Clemente, Hodges, Snider, Koufax, Killebrew, Berra, T. Wiliams, Aaron. Mays

You buy 40 slots and not get at least ONE key player, then you should never go to Vegas again

[kailes2872]

then you should never go to Vegas again

Under serious consideration after my last, painful trip....

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

Kevin with PSA8 I'd bet your $1K would not end up with just 40 commons.

You can figure out the stars in the set and the rookies and I'd pretty much say if you did not end up with one of the following cards (and I'd say a 20 percent of the set equals one of these stars)

Clemente, Hodges, Snider, Koufax, Killebrew, Berra, T. Wiliams, Aaron. Mays

You buy 40 slots and not get at least ONE key player, then you should never go to Vegas again

You have an approximately 13.7% chance of not getting one of those 7 guys if you buy 40 slots.

[wolf441]

Seeing the arguments against, I keep coming back to the point, if you don't want to participate, no one is forcing you to. I agree with Leon on the "weak minded" quote (and I like Ed, so no offense taken!!). If I have the cash and want to gamble a little bit, I don't see the harm. If I wind up with a couple of commons, oh well. That would just be another aspect of what makes the hobby enjoyable for me.

[Tabe]

Depending on the set and the slot price, I'd probably be in.