Vintage Set Group Break Idea! Input Needed!

[Leon]

Originally Posted by edhans

This business model is still unclear to me. Is the slot price going to be based on cost, cost plus markup, or "retail" value of the individual cards? If the former, why would anyone lay out $4-8K for a set with virtually no return? If the latter, wouldn't customers be vastly better off in the long run simply assembling their own set by buying in groups and at widely available discounts off single cards?

Also, I don't see the need for any "disclosure". Assuming it's legal, it's just another business venture. Leon and Nick should just set a slot price based on whatever criteria they deem appropriate. If they're able to find enough weak-minded customers who are amused by this chicanery, they should make some money on it. And there's no reason the profits need to be donated to an animal shelter, no matter how much Leon loves dogs. It's no different, really, than bingo, slot machines or roulette. If these activities stimulate you, have fun with it.

In my mind, and if I am sponsoring it, the cost per ticket will be figured starting with the true cost of the set to be "raffled". As an example if it were a $1000 set and there were 50 cards, the cost of the cards would be $20 each. Then there would be a 10% markup making it $22 per card. Then we would only add true, hard expenses on top of that. I would guess another dollar a card. So each card would cost $23. Therefore $1 would go to Nick for running the whole thing and doing all of the work, $1 would go to me for putting out the money and running the board (and I will still donate all of my proceeds as I said) and $1 for expenses......paypal etc.....then also, we would need to add exact shipping to each shipment. But that is it. Not rocket science. And anything short of something like this scenario and I wouldn't be in favor of doing it. As for chicanery, I don't know about that, but it is a form of lottery I guess. And "weak minded" is a bit strong too but I sort of agree about gambling in general. I have done it a dozen times or so and always have a 100-200 limit per day. I get enjoyment from it when I do it and don't stress. It can be fun. Honestly, these group breaks are not something I would generally join in, as buying into and playing. They just aren't my cup 'o tea, but I know some folks really like them.

I should add, this isn't another business venture to me. It is a way to get more people involved on the board. If it were a business venture I would want to make money .

[kailes2872]

1955 is one of the 4 sets left that I am looking to complete and was planned as a 2015 project.

Since I generally overpay for cards and have zero negotiation skills and ability - paying $25 for an $8 card is something that I do nearly every day in my set building quests. So, for me, paying $25 for a slot will be like buying a common and anything above a common would be gravy

What I need to ask Eric Perry about is - what is the tipping point? If I spend $1000 (40 entries) on a $4000 set, do I stand a good percentage chance to get Kourfax or Clemente? Somewhere on my bookshelf is my college stats book and I could probably pull it out and figure the break even point. But, since I am going to buy this set in the coming year anyway, I was wondering what a good number would be. If I somehow spent 1000-2000 and landed both Koufax and Clemente, it would send me on my way to very good value for the set. If I missed on both of them, and got 40 really nice $8 commons, then I will be sleeping in the spare bedroom and apologizing to the MRS.

Regards,
Kevin

[Rich Klein]

Kevin with PSA8 I'd bet your $1K would not end up with just 40 commons.

You can figure out the stars in the set and the rookies and I'd pretty much say if you did not end up with one of the following cards (and I'd say a 20 percent of the set equals one of these stars)

Clemente, Hodges, Snider, Koufax, Killebrew, Berra, T. Wiliams, Aaron. Mays

You buy 40 slots and not get at least ONE key player, then you should never go to Vegas again

[kailes2872]

then you should never go to Vegas again

Under serious consideration after my last, painful trip....

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

Kevin with PSA8 I'd bet your $1K would not end up with just 40 commons.

You can figure out the stars in the set and the rookies and I'd pretty much say if you did not end up with one of the following cards (and I'd say a 20 percent of the set equals one of these stars)

Clemente, Hodges, Snider, Koufax, Killebrew, Berra, T. Wiliams, Aaron. Mays

You buy 40 slots and not get at least ONE key player, then you should never go to Vegas again

You have an approximately 13.7% chance of not getting one of those 7 guys if you buy 40 slots.

[wolf441]

Seeing the arguments against, I keep coming back to the point, if you don't want to participate, no one is forcing you to. I agree with Leon on the "weak minded" quote (and I like Ed, so no offense taken!!). If I have the cash and want to gamble a little bit, I don't see the harm. If I wind up with a couple of commons, oh well. That would just be another aspect of what makes the hobby enjoyable for me.

[Tabe]

Depending on the set and the slot price, I'd probably be in.