UPDATED: My Combined PSA/SGC Cracker Jack 1914 Pop Report

[GregMitch34]

I've now updated with >3 and >4 numbers for HOFers...will do more as time goes on...

[wolterse]

It's real interesting to look at this from top to bottom. A few questions immediately come to mind:

1) Why is doc gessler's population so high? He was the manger of a sub par Pittsburgh rebels team in 1914. He hardly did anything noteworthy that year to merit collectors hoarding his card.

2) Why is Wagner so low? This is really shocking. All the elite players are right up there in population, yet Wags is near the bottom of HOFers by population. I wonder if fans and kids interests had shifted by that time to the newer stars like Cobb, Johnson and speaker. Certainly seems that way. Wagner was deep into the back nine of his career by 1914 whereas the others were getting started.

I pointed this out on the other thread and will say it again here. 31 cards or 21% of the set have a combined pop at or below 25. These cards will reach astronomical levels in the next year+ due to the influx of new 14 CJ collectors in the market. In fact, most of the cards that have been commented upon in recent posts as having inexplicably high prices paid on them all fall into this 21%.

Many current 1914 Cracker Jack collectors I talk to are upgrading their sets. This, along with the fact that many have started the set in the past year, is driving costs to record highs.

[GregMitch34]

Thanks, and there are many other areas to analyze, such as the higher percentage of mid-grade or better cards for some stars (see Lajoie and, far down the list, Jennings, for example). If collectors are mainly out to get some sort of example of each card, they can just look at total pop for guidance, but if looking for a decent or high grade it's often a different matter. There are plenty of Eddie Collins cards out there, for instance, but not so many at higher levels (and fewer than for Jennings, whose population is half of Collins'). And so on. Then there's the matter of less popular HOFers being tougher to find, such as Wheat and Carey and Huggins and Jennings and Marquard. Their prices have always been depressed but now take on new life as "scarcity" counts for more and more...

[scooter729]

Good info, guys. One question from a non-'14 set collector (though I have about 10 cards myself):

How many of these "low pop" commons are just a matter of folks having them ungraded? It's understandable that due to the price, more Cobbs and Johnsons would be submitted. But as Erich said before, a handful of new Pratts came to the market of late, once folks realized the premium for that "common".

So, are these <25 pop commons really that much scarcer? Or, if they start to achieve premiums, would you see a spike in those cards being submitted?

I would trust the pop 22 on the Bresnahan no number much more than I would some of the other commons, since I would think most are aware of the premium for this card and have submitted them already. But I could see more Cadys, Shottens and Beckers coming to market if people see high premiums on those cards.

[GregMitch34]

Good point. The "ungraded" often forgotten by some of us. Hick Cady, Hick Cady, come on home! I wonder what someone more expert on the ungraded scene would say. Obviously the print run on this set tailed off in second half, where most of the low pop cards reside....

[sniffy5]

Thanks for the research Greg. Really a great job and great effort. It confirms what all of us 1914 CJ collectors already knew - that nearly every card in the set is scarcer that a T206 Wagner. Apples and oranges I know, but still, many cards are just plain hard to find. And if a collector wants certain cards in a 5 or 6, it may not matter how much money he or she is able to throw at the situation. The cards just are not around, and the ones that are out there are not available. I believe the 2nd highest Psa registered 1914 CJ set owner also owns the Pittsburgh Steelers. I'm pretty sure I'm not going to be able to tempt him into selling any of his cards with any amount I'd be able to offer.

As far as patterns of scarcity with this set, I have observed that #'s 73 and up were lesser produced. Also, stars from #'s 1-72 are more available because people hung on to the stars ( a whopping 107 Cobbs apparently survived). Extraordinarily minuscule in comparison to how many were printed in a nationally distributed set, as far as we know. When I was completing the set I thought maybe Del Pratt's great grandnephew or something must be hoarding all of his cards, same with Cady, Caldwell, Becker, Frank Owens, Frank Smith, etc... The so-called commons....but the probable fact is that these cards were just thrown out. And as many others before me have remarked, it's amazing that any 1914's even survived their trips in the popcorn boxes to be pulled out in 1914. ,let alone still be here 100 years later. Anyone who has held a 1914 can tell you that the cards are barely there. Like brittle, red, 100 year old tracing paper.

I think sets have peaks and valleys. The 1914's are at a peak, but plateau might be more appropriate than valley for these. They are too cool, too famous, and too valuable at this point especially, to nosedive.

[GregMitch34]

Good points but I'd be careful making assumptions about little chance for major price decline....And one point on collectors--yes, more may be trying the 1914s but perhaps just as many may be exiting to collect 1915s because they can't afford the 14s now...I know a couple in this category already....

[rainier2004]

Originally Posted by GregMitch34

Good points but I'd be careful making assumptions about little chance for major price decline....And one point on collectors--yes, more may be trying the 1914s but perhaps just as many may be exiting to collect 1915s because they can't afford the 14s now...I know a couple in this category already....

me as well...