A Mantle Price Bubble?

[MattyC]

Centered 5s have been changing hands in the 5k zone. I know two centered 4s that sold at 4k and 4250. One was my brother's posted around here somewhere, if you want to compare. Maybe it was March pickups? Or you can PM GregC for a scan of his 4. So 2500 would be along the lines of highway robbery if it had great centering and eye appeal, no vertical print lines. FWIW, I think your buddy's ask is on the money leaning toward generous assuming it crosses. If he's your homie, maybe you guys can split the cross fee and then establish a fair price based on where it ends up in a PSA slab, given your preference. I'd buy as many nice 4s at 2500 as were offered to me. At 3500 if you ever wanna sell a 4 that looks like GregC's for example, I will give you cash.

[phabphour20]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Centered 5s have been changing hands in the 5k zone. I know two centered 4s that sold at 4k and 4250. One was my brother's posted around here somewhere, if you want to compare. Maybe it was March pickups? Or you can PM GregC for a scan of his 4. So 2500 would be along the lines of highway robbery if it had great centering and eye appeal, no vertical print lines. FWIW, I think your buddy's ask is on the money leaning toward generous assuming it crosses. If he's your homie, maybe you guys can split the cross fee and then establish a fair price based on where it ends up in a PSA slab, given your preference. I'd buy as many nice 4s at 2500 as were offered to me. At 3500 if you ever wanna sell a 4 that looks like GregC's for example, I will give you cash.

I hear what you are saying for sure. I'm gonna meet up with him and look at it again today. Maybe I can work him down to $3k... I'll emphasize the crease...

$2500 is the price that makes me happy, but I know some times I need to get uncomfortable if I really want to own a beautiful card.

Maybe he'll let me photograph it and I can get some better advice.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by phabphour20

I hear what you are saying for sure. I'm gonna meet up with him and look at it again today. Maybe I can work him down to $3k... I'll emphasize the crease...

$2500 is the price that makes me happy, but I know some times I need to get uncomfortable if I really want to own a beautiful card.

Maybe he'll let me photograph it and I can get some better advice.

I agree, you will have to be prepared to go north of that comfort price; everyone would love to have a nice 4 for $2500, but that is just not a realistic expectation for the card in 4-grade. I hope you can get for that, it would be a deal for the ages. But even looking at VCP (while keeping in mind that many of the better examples I've seen have sold privately), the lowest sale on current record was $2639-- and it was for this pretty grotesque example below. For reference I've also attached pictures of all the other examples that sold between $2639 and $2950. All others have been over $3000. Given these facts, I can't fathom a nice 4 selling for anything below $3500. The seller could pretty easily get $4000 with some patience, if it's centered well...

As the scans below bear out, the PSA 4 51B Micks that sell below 3k tend to have extremely poor centering and focus.

[phabphour20]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I agree, you will have to be prepared to go north of that comfort price; everyone would love to have a nice 4 for $2500, but that is just not a realistic expectation for the card in 4-grade. I hope you can get for that, it would be a deal for the ages. But even looking at VCP (while keeping in mind that many of the better examples I've seen have sold privately), the lowest sale on current record was $2639-- and it was for this pretty grotesque example below. For reference I've also attached pictures of all the other examples that sold between $2639 and $2950. All others have been over $3000. Given these facts, I can't fathom a nice 4 selling for anything below $3500. The seller could pretty easily get $4000 with some patience, if it's centered well...

As the scans below bear out, the PSA 4 51B Micks that sell below 3k tend to have extremely poor centering and focus.

The pricing is a bit different for the BVG 4s than the PSA ones. If it were PSA I probably would have taken him out at 3250 already and called it a day. I am worried about the cross since it has a small crease. EDIT: I just checked the BVG data on VCP and the numbers are quite stale. Given the subject of this thread, I can probably assume $2600 would not be the average today...

But I just looked at it again... centered with no print lines. Just the crease taking away from it.

[MattyC]

Sounds like it would land in a PSA 4. Maybe even 4.5 on a good day. Would have to see it. Again, if he's your buddy and you want certainty, maybe you guys can split the cross fee and go from there.

[phabphour20]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Sounds like it would land in a PSA 4. Maybe even 4.5 on a good day. Would have to see it. Again, if he's your buddy and you want certainty, maybe you guys can split the cross fee and go from there.

Yeah, not that good of a buddy... we've just done a lot of business together in the past.

He said he is very firm. I can think of better things to own right now, I'll probably move on.

[GregC]

Here you go. I paid around $4k and still think it was a fair price. $3500 for a centered 51B, even one that crossed to a PSA 3 would be fair. Low and mid grade examples of this card rarely lack the dreaded vertical lines and almost always have major centering issues.

[phabphour20]

Originally Posted by GregC

Here you go. I paid around $4k and still think it was a fair price. $3500 for a centered 51B, even one that crossed to a PSA 3 would be fair. Low and mid grade examples of this card rarely lack the dreaded vertical lines and almost always have major centering issues.

That is beautiful. I'd basically be trading centering and photo quality for corners and the crease. Usually I am happy making that trade.

Anyone have a picture where the vertical lines are very pronounced? I find they sometimes don't come through in a scan.

Edit: These are really bad... eBay 51

[ALR-bishop]

Article is from 12-28-52 NYT

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Just using the numbers is a very reductive if not specious way to grasp Mantle's stature in the sport and hobby.

But rounding out the numbers, there is his still-record WS HRs to consider. The home run is the grandest, most popular act in the sport, and he did it more often than anyone else-- on the grandest stage. No doubt this contributes to his mythic stature. Now, is this a function of being on a good team? No doubt. But he happened to be on that team and he was the one who hit all those homers. And that is what the people remember.

When looking at Mantle, one must really look beyond numbers-- though in terms of peak, in terms of career OPS+, the numbers are great. Look where America was after WWII, and how planets aligned to create a hero. Mantle's looks, the team he played for, his very name, all these factors contributed to what he became.

In later life, his flaws, the way he spoke of them, the way he touched hearts by imploring people not to follow in his footsteps-- these are things that transcend what one can find on baseball reference.

Also, Mantle's numbers and the #311 card are two separate entities. A card has qualities and significance beyond the player depicted. Otherwise how could we ever see common player cards sell for bundles? Mantle's #311 is a hobby icon. Perhaps THE hobby icon after the Honus. It is probably on more want lists than any other card. It is the headline card of perhaps the most popular set in the hobby. These are things that are not tied exactly and only to his numbers.

Looking only at stats is like looking only at grade stickers and VCP grids when valuing and evaluating cards. It can lead one to miss a lot of the intangibles.

Mickey Mantle prices are inflated my marketing. He was a very marketed player on a very marketed team. His number one rank for WS home runs is offset by also ranking number one in strike outs. His batting average and slugging percentage in World Series play doesn't even rank top 10. He just played in more world series games.

When people that are collecting purely collecting for the history of the game and not built in hype I believe that Mantle's cards will even out. I am one that grew up in the 80s/90s when I thought Mantle was the best because that was what I was told by all the collectors around me. When I found out the truth his cards lost the allure, especially the 52 topps, there is no reason that card should out price the 52 bowman the way it does, other than hype.

That is the reason the card is where it is hype. Even you narrow it down to that:
"By almost anyone's measure, even when including pre-war cards, the 52T Mantle is likely the #2 or #3 card in the hobby (for example, PSA ranks it #2, one spot after the Wagner and one before the Ruth RC). "

"Also, as collectors who were young boys in the mid 1980's-- when the 52T card was cementing its iconic status-- enter their prime earning years, they are seeking to obtain it" (and since we are pointing out assumptions, this is one also)

Originally Posted by MattyC

So is your assumption that the majority of owners of this card are people with median 2012 household income? That's where I guess I respectfully differ and see a fissure in the logic. I'd contend that the majority of owners of this card, especially the best-looking examples, are not going bust anytime soon. Also, by extension that same logic would apply to any card worth in excess of 8k. Above all, this hypothetical overextended collector may just as possibly have other cards to sell first.

I think the vast majority of the owners of this card or other $8k+ collectibles are "The Joneses," as opposed to those merely trying to keep up.

The majority? I have no reason to believe that a majority are or aren't at median household income, but with thousands of this card out there it doesn't need to be a majority. The card isn't rare. I do believe (assume) that it is in the collection of majority of people that if funds were needed this would be the first to go to raise the funds the quickest.

It is easier for me to believe that the Wagner is only owned by the elite, because it is so rare and there aren't any original owners left (assumption). The 52 Mantle is still being found and sold from original owners or their children after the original owner passed away.


Again I just believe that as collector's are more educated about the history of the game and not just the marketing of it there will be less collector's looking for this card and, instead, looking for more rare cards. I can be wrong, and that is ok. End of the day this card is way over valued to me, as a person who cares more about the history of the game than the history of the hobby.

[MattyC]

I respect your opinion, and agree that it is all about parsing how different people collect-- some focus strictly on the game and player stats, others on hobby and card collecting history, too. I personally find cards like the Goudey Lajoie to be fascinating, famous pieces to the hobby, even though the card's value would seem not to correlate to the player's stats. If card values and stats were linked that rigidly then Babe, Lou, and Ted Williams cards should and would be worth a ton more. Berra had many seasons with 20+ HR and even fewer than 20 Ks, among numerous other gaudy numbers for his position, and his RC seems downright tragically undervalued in that light (of correlating card value more rigidly to player stats). I think, if we are looking at stats and impact to the game, the rookie card of Babe Ruth stands to be worth more than the T206 Wagner, but that's just not the case.

But whatever the factors that conspired to make Mantle and that card the beloved legends they are now to so many, I just don't see those minds ever changing. There are paintings some may believe more beautiful or less hyped than the Mona Lisa, but that image will always be iconic, and occupy that exalted perch. So to me, the factors that helped the #311 attain its status are somewhat moot, since it occupies the Post War baseball card throne, and no card will unseat it. But obviously no one is forcing anyone to buy one-- if someone doesn't like the card like others do, to each his own.

I just don't see increasing amounts of collectors doing a comparative stat analysis on baseball-reference, and suddenly the card loses its aura and status. I wish for some cards the reverse would be the case, especially for Gehrig, Ted Williams, Musial, Berra, and DiMaggio, to name a few. Take DiMaggio's Zeenut Batting-- quite rare, his first appearance, amazing numbers, lost time for the war, but for some reason it costs a fraction of what some high-graded modern cards sell for.

In the end, only time will tell. My friendly bet is that a decade or two from now, the card is still going strong as ever.

One point I would hang a lantern on is the notion of the card being rare or not. Rarity alone is not always the main driver of a card's value. I think demand relative to supply trumps sheer numerical rarity. And those after the card, from around age 30 to age 60, will likely be around for the next twenty years. And I don't see their interest in the card waning due to a stat-driven epiphany. Yes, there are over 1000 Mantles, but how many are terribly OC or tilted or creased? How many highly desirable specimens exist, as compared to the wealthy collectors out there who seek the best-looking cards, and will bid against each other spiritedly to secure such a strong piece? I think that relationship will be what drives the prices of the best looking examples, over time.

[brian1961]

I owned the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle for 22 years. I miss it terribly. I can honestly say if the number of specimens grew to 5,000 or 50,000, I would still ravenously desire the card! Not rare? What do I care? If I don't own one, I'm still one of the tens of thousands of collectors on the outside looking in. If "everybody" owned one, I'm still without that card, and not loving the fact I will probably never own it again.

A few years ago I emailed Joe Orlando the same sentiment as the gent who expressed the fact that kid collectors from the 70s, 80s, and 90s who saw the card, and saw what the card did to their dads, had a seed of deep desire planted that is now growing to the point where some of them still have the red hot desire, and will finally be able to purchase a beautiful example--and have the delight of sharing it with their dads, if they're still alive.

Unless one to five cases of pristine 52 Topps high numbers are found, the bubble will not burst. A find of this magnitude would be interesting, but why waste life pondering that vastly remote possibility. ---Brian Powell

[Volod]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

Article is from 12-28-52 NYT

Thanks for posting that item, Al. Since the '52 Topps Mantle card was generally priced at the same level as the other high numbers in 1967 - a whopping one buck - it seems that the big hike in "value" actually took place in the 1980's, when card collecting hype itself hit the stratosphere. To the extent that investment remains a substantial part of the hobby, the card's price will probably contine to be inflated, but not as the result of a 30-year-old "bubble."