The Psychology of Bidding.......

[steve B]

Originally Posted by h2oya311

I sure hope you and someone else w/ your buying philosophy are bidding on my consignments!!! It's amazing how many graded cards sell for close to VCP, even for rare cards w/ only a few graded specimens.

I use VCP, but always look at the actual sales, photos, and avenue of sale when thinking about a fair price. It can be dangerous though. I once purchased a few t205 from a small AH thinking I got some bargains, but t205 prices realized had recently fallen and I was using 2012 values for some of the rarer ones. I didn't take a bath, but I certainly didn't get any return on my investment. This serves as a constant reminder to me of three things: (1) I am not a dealer, (2) only but cards you want, need, or for which you have expertise, and (3) exercise caution when using VCP, even when used appropriately.

Remember, a card needs only two bidders to realize a certain price...if one of those two guys no longer needs a card or isn't paying attention, the subsequent sale will invariably be much lower than the previous sale...the laws of supply and demand can be a bitch sometimes!!

A dealer I'm friendly with in another hobby once told me " If the item is a good one you can't pay too much, just too soon" Meaning that even spending a bit over what's typical for something really nice will usually payoff in the long run. Sure, you'll hardly ever be able to flip it right away, but if it's something you'll keep for a few years you'll do better than the person paying an average price for average stuff, or a low price for items with problems.

I'd have to agree. When I started T206s were about 1.50 for VG commons, Maybe 1.00 for G, maybe 2.00 for EX. Most HOF players were 5-10. Most backs didn't matter at all, I think my Broadleaf that's poor was $5, maybe 10.
The difference now is much bigger. And I think in a few years it will be bigger still.


Bidding in auctions is different for everyone.

For me Ebay stuff gets a few different tactics

For stuff I'm fairly sure on the value of, I snipe. Not with a service, but manually - Mostly because of budget. If I put snipes on all the stuff I want I'd be in trouble very quickly.
If I'm interested in it but not really interested, I usually just bid and see what happens, especially if it's a cheap or really common thing.
Stuff I'm not sure about the value of I usually handle the same way, except I might put in a low bid early to remind me to do some research.

Then there's the stuff I really want or like, or that looks like it might be special in some way. Those get a bit more attention, and I discuss them with my wife who is very good at giving a second opinion or reality check. Then I figure out what's a bid that would have a reasonable chance of winning. Depending on what other items are up I might abandon most of the others to bid more. In one case I went as far as finding some extra funds. (Then after all that work they got ended early )

I've only bid in a couple auction house auctions, and the experiences haven't been all that great. One had a "computer problem" and couldn't see any of the online bids. And decided to simply continue the auction. Maybe 50 lots, including nearly all the ones I'd bid on. Those went for around 1/3 of my bids. The other "forgot" to ship the cards I won. Then promised a discount on the shipping and never followed through.
I'm not so sure I'd bother again.

In person auctions are much more interesting. And there's way more psychology. Figuring out how competitive the other bidders might be based on how they bid, whether to wait for the opening price to drop a bit or to start the bidding right away.....Harder, but more fun.
Some stuff goes for way more than I'd expect. And some stuff ends up going for a bargain. --- 4 late 80's-early 90's factory sets, sold for $65?! Early 40's Braves warmup jacket in bad condition, but supposedly Ernie Lombardis - $100. At the same auction The warmup didn't get much attention in preview. probably because it was hung up near the door and everyone probably figured it was one of the workers jackets like I did. I bid on it nearly blind. Based on what I could see from 20-30 ft away. I'd have gone higher, but fortunately the only other bidder dropped out.

Steve B

[MattyC]

This is golden advice:

"A dealer I'm friendly with in another hobby once told me " If the item is a good one you can't pay too much, just too soon" Meaning that even spending a bit over what's typical for something really nice will usually payoff in the long run. Sure, you'll hardly ever be able to flip it right away, but if it's something you'll keep for a few years you'll do better than the person paying an average price for average stuff, or a low price for items with problems."

Could not agree more. For quick flippers, paying premiums for the best looking card in the grade is "overpaying." But for the collector who wants to enjoy a card for years and thus has a long investment horizon, it is the way to go 100% of the time. Not only do you get the pleasure of admiring and owning the better looking card, but you also will do better if you sell it several years down the line for whatever reason.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by steve B

A dealer I'm friendly with in another hobby once told me " If the item is a good one you can't pay too much, just too soon"

The trick is knowing which affordable items are the "good ones". Everyone knows the really big ones such as the T206 Plank or Wagner, or the Goudey Lajoie. If you aren't good at making such determinations for lower-priced cards, you better stick to studying market values.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Runscott

The trick is knowing which affordable items are the "good ones". Everyone knows the really big ones such as the T206 Plank or Wagner, or the Goudey Lajoie. If you aren't good at making such determinations for lower-priced cards, you better stick to studying market values.

In the hobbies that are his primary business -Stamps and coins - there are long established and reasonably accurate price guides, and most of the production totals are known.

Stamps in average condition are readily available for about half the catalog price. I'm no longer sure about coins.

What he was talking about are the things that aren't bargains right now, but will probably be seen as bargains a few years from now.

To use couple examples from cards
Leons Ruth would always have been a bit more than others that would be called the same grade, and a dealer who graded strictly might have called it just VG. (There was some pushback for a time against stuff like VG-EX, some felt there was no middle ground, it was either VG or EX. ) I was given probably 6-7 chances to buy Goudey Ruths. All VG, all around $100. (Sadly for me I never bought one) Leons would have been a bit more even from someone who would just call it a really nice VG. So at the time if I'd bought a card like that for say 125 I'd have "overpaid" The difference now of course is much larger. And it's still worth "overpaying" for since it's very nice for VG-EX.

When I bought my few Carolina Brights backs, I "overpaid" by paying probably 3x what a common was at the time for the commons and the going rate for the Cobb. They were simply poor condition T206s with an interesting back. That's obviously changed a lot.

It's more about paying a bit more for either rarity or condition than finding a bargain.

That's a whole different exercise.
(Like the lucky people who bought Chinese stamps 15+ years ago when they could be had by the boxful for almost nothing. Who knew they'd become more capitalist and like stamps and want their rare stuff back?)

Steve B

[MVSNYC]

I never check price guides...ever. VCP, SMR, MPH, LOL, LMK, FYI, or even SOL.

My focus is, and always has been, T206...after 25 years of collecting, I think I have a good sense of values. If something pops up and want a price opinion, I'll ask a friend or two, but never check price guides at all.

I watch a card, and if I want it, I bid. if I really want it, I bid strong. I bid up to what i'm comfortable spending.