baseball's falling popularity and its affect on our hobby

[teetwoohsix]

Lot's of great points brought up in this thread, and it's been fun to read.

I felt Wonka's first post pretty much summed up the way I view things, as far as this topic goes.

I know from my own experience, if I were collecting things from my high school days, it would be more along the lines of concert shirts, heavy metal on vinyl, bongs, and guitars But seriously-

In grade school, I collected the current Topps cards-could have cared less about condition. My small collection was left behind during a move across the country, and I (entering junior high) became focused on girls Fast forward to mid thirties,,,,I decided I wanted to collect "something", and the first thing that came to mind was "baseball cards". I didn't even know about century old cards-I was buying modern cards, then picked up a couple of cards from the 50's and 60's.....then discovered pre-war. Instantly I was hooked- I couldn't stop looking at them all (on ebay). They were, and still are, always out of my price range. I sometimes go for months without a pick up.

But I am still hooked on them-T206's (damn these things ). I understand that there is an investment side to things, but I try to put that out of my perspective for the most part-meaning, I am not buying cards because of what they may or may not be worth in the future. I hope they at least retain their value-but if they don't, oh well-I had a blast collecting them and I love them, and that's worth whatever I pay for them (to me).

So, you can't base the future of the hobby on what high school kids are doing......at least when it comes to pre-war cards (in my humble opinion ). Adults who want to collect things (some at least) will always find an attraction to pre-war cards, and their mystique of a time long past.

Sincerely, Clayton

[Peter_Spaeth]

I don't have an opinion on the broader market but as I have said before, I think the values of freaks and miscuts and rarebacks is due in large part to a few lunatics here pumping each other up so I don't see those holding their value.

[ullmandds]

This topic has been discussed numerous times...and the sides are usually split down the middle. My stance on this topic usually mirrors that of myguyty in a lot of ways.

I am a collector...always have been...always will be to a degree...not just vintage bb cards...pottery, art, books, all kinds of stuff. But there aren't that many collectors out there! I don't have any friends outside of this hobby who collect much of anything?

Technology has changed society in so many ways...take music for example. We used to buy records, cassettes...look at them, play them...now people buy mp3's...they buy songs. It's much less tangible. Society is trending away from tangible things in a lot of ways in my opinion...and I find myself getting away from "things" as well.

I agree that the t206 freak/rare back phenomenon is incredibly overinflated...and over time these prices will drop quite a bit.

I think common vintage card supply of non hof'ers will exceed demand in the future causing these prices to drop as well.

I think there are many older collectors who will be leaving us/selling off their collections in the future...causing a large influx of cards into the hobby.

On the other side of the coin...many older people/collectors will be passing away...and will be leaving significant amounts of $$$$ to the younger generations...so the younger folk...while they may not have been successful as their parents will be inheriting a lot of $$$$ so they will have the means to buy baseball cards if they so choose.

As the popularity of modern cards diminishes...this could increase the popularity of older cards.

As the values of common, non high tier hof'ers decrease...the price point of entry will enable more to enter the vintage hobby who as they mature will pursue the higher buck cards.

Noone really knows what will happen to this hobby...we all can speculate...one thing I do know is that despite the fact I am a little bearish on the future of the hobby...I will be an active participant in it until I am no longer able!

I have trimmed my collection from quantity to more "quality" cards over the last few years as I think the big names and rarities will hold their values better over the long term.

[rdwyer]

I went to the Ducks-Kings hockey game last night at Dodger stadium. Was very entertaining, and even had KISS performing. The NHL is attracting more and more fans every day. The outdoor hockey games are responsible for this.

[wonkaticket]

I think its so funny and very telling that every time one of these threads pops up the case made is always about T206 prices. Nobody ever says who will be willing to drop 100k on a N172 CA league card years from now?

At least it shows the power and just how mainstream T206 is which is a good thing for the hobby.

If the folks who start the gloom and doom train only knew how much huge money was spent on other items like 50's regional issues, type cards, 19th century, advertising pieces etc. the least of their concerns would be 10k on a Drum or print error peanuts.....peanuts....peanuts compared to other stuff.

[mark evans]

I think MyGuy may be barking up the right tree.

I'm 64 and collected cards as a kid. With the advent of eBay, and in light of my interest in baseball history, I developed an interest in pre-war cards, although I of course never saw those guys play. Key to my interest in vintage cards was the fact that I had collected baseball cards in my youth.

I'm assuming a significant percentage of pre-war collectors, like me, first collected cards as a kid. If this is true, and if statistics are showing that fewer and fewer kids are collecting baseball cards, then it should follow that demand for vintage cards will decline over time.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

I think its so funny and very telling that every time one of these threads pops up the case made is always about T206 prices. Nobody ever says who will be willing to drop 100k on a N172 CA league card years from now?

At least it shows the power and just how mainstream T206 is which is a good thing for the hobby.

If the folks who start the gloom and doom train only knew how much huge money was spent on other items like 50's regional issues, type cards, 19th century, advertising pieces etc. the least of their concerns would be 10k on a Drum or print error peanuts.....peanuts....peanuts compared to other stuff.

John it all falls under the same umbrella, vintage baseball related goods. Hence the topic that OP brought up.......the OVERALL decline in interest in baseball and how it affects the future of vintage baseball memorabilia.

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

John it all falls under the same umbrella, vintage baseball related goods. Hence the topic that OP brought up.......the OVERALL decline in interest in baseball and how it affects the future of vintage baseball memorabilia.

You're right I give in I'm selling it all tonight and running for the hills the hobby is doomed.......

[mrvster]

T 206 is here to stay, and the future of this set is extremely bright, especially fueled by Wagner....

Baseball will always be a very popular sport....no matter what.....

These cards won't be thrown into the fire like Farenheit 451...

E cards like today could never replace the vintage cardboard like T206 or O.J.s


just deal with it .........

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mrvster

t 206 is here to stay, and the future of this set is extremely bright, especially fueled by wagner....

Baseball will always be a very popular sport....no matter what.....

These cards won't be thrown into the fire like farenheit 451:d...

E cards like today could never replace the vintage cardboard like t206 or o.j.s


just deal with it :d.........

lol

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

You're right I give in I'm selling it all tonight and running for the hills the hobby is doomed.......

Attaboy.......

[Jantz]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

You're right I give in I'm selling it all tonight and running for the hills the hobby is doomed.......

John

Might I suggest an Ebay seller who is always taking consignments and could get you the best prices for your cards?


Jantz

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by Jantz

John

Might I suggest an Ebay seller who is always taking consignments and could get you the best prices for your cards?


Jantz

Jantz do you still think there's time?

[mrvster]

as long as baseball is played, cards will be collected.....as long as the next generation plays ball.......the nostalgic pastime, will always have an interest amongst even historians.......that's realistic......waz is a special breed.....most youngsters buy the new shiny stuff.....they usually don't graduate to vintage until they mature a little like we did.......every wally world, target, and kmart I go to has a lot of baseball cards still......they new card market is HUGE! once the youngsters get sick of the manufactured rarities, they will focus on true vintage rarities


the future of vintage depends on the future generations interest in baseball. which I don't see ever diminishing that much....

the wagner will continue to keep baseball card collecting alive.......that mystery alone will keep intrigue in our hobby.....the ball has already started rolling

[rhettyeakley]

I always find it interesting that people tie the collecting of baseball memorabilia so closely to the collectors love of the current game of baseball.

I actually feel pretty good about the sports collectibles hobby. This hobby unlike many collectibles fields has an advantage in that it is tied to a game that is still currently being played and maintains popularity. Many items from other hobbies that maintain high value today have nothing going for them other than that they were once highly prized and that value has continued to this day.

What about the glass bottle collector... do we tie their long term viability based on how much people today love glass bottles? How about the Coca-Cola collector... do we worry about their long term collectability due to Coke's dropping presence in the soda market today? How about coin collecting... do we worry about this market because almost nobody uses physical money anymore?

The answer to these questions may very well be yes but we can make similar types of pessimistic views with nearly every field within the collectibles market. Nobody can see the future but I think some are being a bit simplistic when they start making direct correlations from the popularity of baseball right now and the long term collectability of baseball items.

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by rhettyeakley

I always find it interesting that people tie the collecting of baseball memorabilia so closely to the collectors love of the current game of baseball.

I actually feel pretty good about the sports collectibles hobby. This hobby unlike many collectibles fields has an advantage in that it is tied to a game that is still currently being played and maintains popularity. Many items from other hobbies that maintain high value today have nothing going for them other than that they were once highly prized and that value has continued to this day.

What about the glass bottle collector... do we tie their long term viability based on how much people today love glass bottles? How about the Coca-Cola collector... do we worry about their long term collectability due to Coke's dropping presence in the soda market today? How about coin collecting... do we worry about this market because almost nobody uses physical money anymore?

The answer to these questions may very well be yes but we can make similar types of pessimistic views with nearly every field within the collectibles market. Nobody can see the future but I think some are being a bit simplistic when they start making direct correlations from the popularity of baseball right now and the long term collectability of baseball items.

+1

[freakhappy]

For some reason I feel a few people in this thread are "on edge" why do you think that is?

I think MyGuyTy has some very valid points and I don't believe he is being pessimistic at all...but rather, realistic. I don't know what will happen to the hobby in the next 30-50 years or after that, but I think what he is saying seems very logical...to deny it, seems like you just don't want to think about it.

We all know that the younger generation is not into cards like they used to be and I don't know one kid under 18 except wazoo that does! Twenty or so years ago, card collecting amongst kids was so popular...but now it is mostly dead. So what does this possibly say for the future of the hobby once our generation has passed? I don't know the answer for sure, but unless A LOT of younger kids get moving, we should see a decline for sure.

Since the '90's or so, it has been a wreck for kids to collect because of the prices and a lot of card stores are long gone. Things aren't that simple or fun anymore and if no one is there to present this great hobby of ours to them, then where is it going? Certainly not up, right? I'm sure there will always be buyers and sellers, but I highly doubt the demand will rise IMO. I love this hobby and I for one do not want it to decline, but it kind of seems obvious when you think about it.

There's no doubt that it should stay steady for a good amount of years, but for how long? We only have a small sample size of card collecting overall (130-50 years) and we're already seeing the younger generation stray away.

[doug.goodman]

Forgetting about the "state of the hobby" for just a moment...

Has anybody mentioned what a stupid f'ing poll that was?

What's your favorite sport? Who cares.


If the question had been "what's your favorite meal?" I'm confident of two things :

1 - Ice cream would not have won.

2 - Ice cream stores will never go out of business.



Pitchers and catchers start reporting in 11 days, and I for one couldn't care less if the world prefers football (double meaning intended).

The fewer people in the stands for a baseball game the better, as far as I'm concerned, because, the dorks are the first ones to not show up, so the smaller the crowd, the higher the percentage of actual baseball fans.

If I owned a team, I wouldn't anybody into the park who didn't keep score.

Doug

[wonkaticket]

I don't think anyone is "on edge" about anything there's nothing to be on edge about. Mike perhaps you can explain "on edge"?

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by freakhappy

I think MyGuyTy has some very valid points and I don't believe he is being pessimistic at all...but rather, realistic.

Totally agree, I think MyGuyTy made some very valid points. At the same time I do very much hope the hobby finds a way to continue and thrive long after I'm gone. If so, I think it (whoever "it" is) will need to take a more active role in doing so.. Per Dan's post, a TV show, or anything that creates some positive attention and promotion would be great. The card/memorabilia world will also need to do a heck of a lot better job a courting young collectors... And with young collectors, I think it's far better if this is driven first by the game.. By a love of the game, rather than simply collecting its artifacts.

I understand the point that some collect solely for collecting sake or for love of the game's history, while not having passion for the present game.. and/or without having had a love for the game (playing/watching) and cards as kids. I think that's great, whatever floats your boat.. People's motivations are varied and this is good. To me however (and I think to many average collectors), all these things come together- the game current and past, childhood memories of playing and talking baseball with my dad, scouring through Bill James books, and getting those first cards. I feel having had all these experiences, mixed with the emotions they evoke are the main reason I collect now.. And in that, the popularity of the present game, and how the next younger generation views it is hugely important toward getting the average person into collecting.

To that, off the top of my head, current baseball "bads"--- PEDs and a growing fan indifference towards new records/career milestones and the HOF. Free agency limiting any city's (or kid's) bond with its stars. Goods--- amazing influence international talent has had on the quality of play. Incredible year round TV coverage/access to all games. Nice new ballparks and rising attendance. A style of play that seems to be morphing back to basic fundamentals (pitching, defense, running, gap to gap hitting, etc) rather than the static mid-90's CO Rockies' HR derby style. And given football concussion/health concerns (as mentioned earlier), a possible youth shift back to baseball (and probably soccer.. Even though it has a concussion problem of its own), which could ensure MLB gets more Mike Trouts/Matt Kemp caliber athletes. I think baseball is due for a big bounce back, and so could the current card world if it plays it's cards right.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by freakhappy

For some reason I feel a few people in this thread are "on edge" why do you think that is?

I think MyGuyTy has some very valid points and I don't believe he is being pessimistic at all...but rather, realistic. I don't know what will happen to the hobby in the next 30-50 years or after that, but I think what he is saying seems very logical...to deny it, seems like you just don't want to think about it.

We all know that the younger generation is not into cards like they used to be and I don't know one kid under 18 except wazoo that does! Twenty or so years ago, card collecting amongst kids was so popular...but now it is mostly dead. So what does this possibly say for the future of the hobby once our generation has passed? I don't know the answer for sure, but unless A LOT of younger kids get moving, we should see a decline for sure.

Since the '90's or so, it has been a wreck for kids to collect because of the prices and a lot of card stores are long gone. Things aren't that simple or fun anymore and if no one is there to present this great hobby of ours to them, then where is it going? Certainly not up, right? I'm sure there will always be buyers and sellers, but I highly doubt the demand will rise IMO. I love this hobby and I for one do not want it to decline, but it kind of seems obvious when you think about it.

There's no doubt that it should stay steady for a good amount of years, but for how long? We only have a small sample size of card collecting overall (130-50 years) and we're already seeing the younger generation stray away.

Great points Mike, that's basically all I'm saying. Will there still be SOME collectors of vintage baseball memorabilia 30 years from now?.....sure, BUT to what extent?? Is there gonna be enough "die hard" vintage baseball guys 30 years from now that are gonna be falling all over each other to bid $110,000 on an old raggedy N172 OJ advertisement from 1887?? Judging by the path this hobby (and baseball in general) is projecting with the next generation, my money is absolutely on no. These prices today are driven by that 1950's to 1980's demographic that is still the driving force. In 30 years everything changes all over again.

And we haven't even got into the fact that the demographics in this country are rapidly changing especially in the south, southeast, southwest and west. Not to mention the grim economic landscape that is being forecasted for our kids 25-30 years from now as jobs continue to be outsourced, eliminated or giving to illegals at a cheaper wage.

Just as Mike said NOBODY (especially the guy who just blew $110,000 on that advertisement) wants to hear these things, just like the real estate investors 10 years ago didn't wanna hear those silly "bubble bursting" projections.........truths do in fact suck when you have a vested interest.

Why did it take this hobby until the 1980's/1990's to start bringing in ENORMOUS prices for vintage items??? Because the interest in (over) paying silly prices for cards was non-existent despite the fact that there were in deed many "collectors" in this hobby. It was actually about the hobby itself and the love of the game. The 80's roared in with a cultural, economic and direct financial boom and these professionals who were baseball card collecting kids in the 50's and 60's decided it's time to start spending some serious money on old baseball cards to rekindle that passion. A "passion" that is quickly fading away with today's kids.