baseball's falling popularity and its affect on our hobby

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

Sorry “MyGuyTy” but I disagree. It also has nothing to do with what I may or may not have overpaid for either as there are anomalies in every hobby. Every collector has items he has too much in that’s called collecting.

My point above is that 20 years ago records were set and folks said that is silly, then 10 years ago folks said that is silly, then 5 years ago….and so on and so on…..

As I said above this hobby is not driven by modern shiny trading card business. That business is dead and dying even the retail space dedicated to such is being cut. Yet our hobby is having record highs and growth, am I to believe this is all driven by 50 year old men with cash to burn? No there is young blood in this hobby I’m 38 not young but not a baby boomer. There are even younger collectors here spending big money.

This whole nobody collects cards at high school so we are all doomed is just silly. Art and music programs are almost dead in schools also but we still have fine art collecting and rock stars. Just because it’s not a Leave it to Beaver episode on every corner in America and kids aren’t out playing stick ball by the fire hydrants and flipping cards against the walls does not mean our hobby is dead. The pre-war section has had very little drive from the baby boomers looking to relive what mom tossed out.

If anything the hobby has become more sophisticated and because of the digital age we live in even more obscure avenues of card collecting have emerged, and even more people can be exposed to the hobby.

Cheers,

John

Edited to add “MyTyGuy” your view of the people who drive our hobby is very narrow not everyone who collects any type of antiques has to have started that journey as a kid, nor do they have to have an affinity for the subject matter they collect either. Also the hobby is not driven solely by multi-millionaires either. Not every sale is a record sale….lots of sub $100 pre-war cards are sold to normal people every day.

John for your sake, my sake and the sake of everyone on this board who loves thus hobby, I hope you're right. However I remain skeptical as interest baseball and the cards themselves continues to fade with every passing year amongst the next generation of "money".

Also to add, the casual "sophisticated" collector of anything vintage is SUCH a small minority in the larger scope. The majority of collectors have emotional ties to what they're collecting and handing out a king's ransom for. Just because I enjoy vintage cards, doesn't mean I'll go out and drop $10,000 on a vase from the 1800's. Why do you think the 80's just happened to be the start of the baseball card collecting explosion? Because that was the first generation of 30 something year olds who remember the golden age of being a kid in the 50's and 60's when the baseball card with bubble gum craze officially kicked into a whole different level. That money in the 80's and 90's is still what's hanging on to the hobby prices today......30 years from now, new money takes over with new "interests" and new "hobbies" while the small demographic of men in their 30's and 40's right now who enjoy paying thousands upon thousands for these cards, will most likely be dead and having their collections dispersed.

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

John for your sake, my sake and the sake of everyone on this board who loves thus hobby, I hope you're right. However I remain skeptical as interest baseball and the cards themselves continues to fade with every passing year amongst the next generation of "money".

I understand why you are skeptical, but would like to add that the flooding of the market of next generation selling off their inherited collections should probably be of equal or greater concern. This is one of the first generations of young American's who are not better off than their parents and this is one of my biggest concerns moving forward.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by Gobucsmagic74

I understand why you are skeptical, but would like to add that the flooding of the market of next generation selling off their inherited collections should probably be of equal or greater concern. This is one of the first generations of young American's who are not better off than their parents and this is one of my biggest concerns moving forward.

That's exactly what I'm talking about, it will be a combination of an overall lack of interest and flooded market of vintage cards. Supply will be plenty and demand is projecting to be at an all time low.......Recipe for a complete crash of values.

[z28jd]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

That's exactly what I'm talking about, it will be a combination of an overall lack of interest and flooded market of vintage cards. Supply will be plenty and demand is projecting to be at an all time low.......Recipe for a complete crash of values.

The amount of vintage cards will never be considered plenty. They aren't making any, so the population will only go down as time passes. Cards are lost to attrition, whether it's fire, natural disasters, mistakenly thrown out, whatever.

We have all seen parts of the market go up or down based on just one extra person collecting a particular set or player. That just proves how rare they are overall and there have been some huge collections put on the market, such as Lionel Carter's or the large find of Drum backs. They did nothing negative to the market value of similar cards.

The are plenty of people that would gladly embrace prices dropping because they are "collectors" and it's more for them, so those people will eat up any so called flood of cards. Then when someone wants them again, the prices will go up. There are always going to be people lying in wait for that flood of cards so they can do what they do, collect.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by z28jd

There are always going to be people lying in wait for that flood of cards so they can do what they do, collect.

So there's gonna be 70-90 years old lying in wait to drop $15,000 on rare back or rare "print error" T206 in 30 years? I highly doubt it. Nor will men who will be in their 30's and 40's at that time with the real disposable income. New money, new interests, new hobbies, new ways of thinking.

[William Todd]

My feeling on this subject is somewhat middle of the road to this discussion. As a career investment person, I know that trends come and go. The rare baseball cards and stamps and art will hold their value, but many times along the long term span of time they can become overpriced. I am concerned that many of the high grade examples of cards, like the Wagner, may have been altered. I don't know how this will affect their value over time. In the last five years I have moved my collecting focus to collecting middle grade, somewhat rare, reasonably priced cards, all pre WWI. I enjoy collecting, I love the cards, but not overpaying for them.

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

I think it is interesting that nobody else considered the effect that the medical data may have on the future of pro football.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by z28jd

The amount of vintage cards will never be considered plenty. They aren't making any, so the population will only go down as time passes. Cards are lost to attrition, whether it's fire, natural disasters, mistakenly thrown out, whatever.

We have all seen parts of the market go up or down based on just one extra person collecting a particular set or player. That just proves how rare they are overall and there have been some huge collections put on the market, such as Lionel Carter's or the large find of Drum backs. They did nothing negative to the market value of similar cards.

The are plenty of people that would gladly embrace prices dropping because they are "collectors" and it's more for them, so those people will eat up any so called flood of cards. Then when someone wants them again, the prices will go up. There are always going to be people lying in wait for that flood of cards so they can do what they do, collect.

Just because something is perceived as "rare" doesn't mean it's automatically so "valuable" beyond belief. There are TONS are vintage items and artifacts (in which only a handful exist) with values under a couple hundred bucks. Why? Because there's no true demand for these particular items or the market for them has completely disappeared.

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

John for your sake, my sake and the sake of everyone on this board who loves thus hobby, I hope you're right. However I remain skeptical as interest baseball and the cards themselves continues to fade with every passing year amongst the next generation of "money".

If you really feel that way I understand and respect your thoughts, but if that is 100% how you feel I would look to sell now. For me I'll hang in a bit longer as I don't feel the sky is falling just yet....

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

If you really feel that way I understand and respect your thoughts, but if that is 100% how you feel I would look to sell now. For me I'll hang in a bit longer as I don't feel the sky is falling just yet....

"Yet"........ Key word in your entire statement

[xcgrammer]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

John for your sake, my sake and the sake of everyone on this board who loves thus hobby, I hope you're right. However I remain skeptical as interest baseball and the cards themselves continues to fade with every passing year amongst the next generation of "money".

Also to add, the casual "sophisticated" collector of anything vintage is SUCH a small minority in the larger scope. The majority of collectors have emotional ties to what they're collecting and handing out a king's ransom for. Just because I enjoy vintage cards, doesn't mean I'll go out and drop $10,000 on a vase from the 1800's. Why do you think the 80's just happened to be the start of the baseball card collecting explosion? Because that was the first generation of 30 something year olds who remember the golden age of being a kid in the 50's and 60's when the baseball card with bubble gum craze officially kicked into a whole different level. That money in the 80's and 90's is still what's hanging on to the hobby prices today......30 years from now, new money takes over with new "interests" and new "hobbies" while the small demographic of men in their 30's and 40's right now who enjoy paying thousands upon thousands for these cards, will most likely be dead and having their collections dispersed.

Completely agree with everything you have said. The hobby is being driven by the kids of the 50s - 90s right now and when we are all gone this hobby is gonna nose dive and that is why I collect what I like regardless of price. Anyone who doesn't see that inevitable shrinking numbers of collectors will drive prices down is kidding themselves. I think the market for comic books however which I have no interest in whatsoever will remain strong because that is what kids are into now. Superhereoes. SMH

[teetwoohsix]

Well, the thing is, there are many collectors of these cards who do not spend anywhere near $10,000.00 on a card. Sure, some collectors have deep pockets and buy what they like regardless of the price- I would too if I could afford to. But, you don't have to be a millionaire to collect these cards. There are also collectors with big money buying cards, people who like their privacy, and don't post on the internet. I only bring that up because there are more collectors of these cards than you see here on Net54 (although I'm sure they read Net54 ).

I do not think the popularity in baseball is falling at an alarming rate, and I do not think the hobby will drop in 40 years........these cards have to go somewhere! Plus, truth is, there's a ton of people who have never heard of pre-war cards....I used to be one of them! There are a ton of people who, if asked about vintage baseball cards, will tell you about cards they had as a kid from the 50's and 60's......clueless about pre-war cards.

Anyhow, I think people will collect these cards, as long as the planet survives.........

Sincerely, Clayton

[Piratedogcardshows]

Maybe then I can afford a T210 JJ!

[Jeffrompa]

When you are 15 not too many kids will collect what their father does .

When you are 25 you are too busy to collect what your Father does .

When you are 35 you might collect what your Father does if you wife lets you .

At 45 you just do it and enjoy it .

I sure hope the cards don't go the way of stamps . I can't compete in the high dollar stamp auctions . The cards may get to be the same where the primo stuff is out of reach .

[teetwoohsix]

I typed this out and posted it a long time ago in another thread, but here is an article in a collectibles magazine from 1974......

Sincerely, Clayton

[wonkaticket]

I have a friend who is a huge sports fan season tickets best seats all sports etc. He however isn’t a baseball fan. As I have said prior I don’t follow all of the nuances of modern baseball so I’m not sure if he’s right.

His reasoning is modern baseball is too predictable and no fun. He says that the game is really controlled by a few dynasty’s/teams and that no matter how much you follow it you’re pretty much going to know who makes the finals the same guys sort of over and over. So if your team isn’t one of those teams your sort of just along for another boring ride to nowhere. He pointed out with other sports such as football your team can have bad years but every now and then there’s a shake up and your team can have a chance…not so much with baseball he said.

Again not sure if he’s on the money or not love to hear folks inputs.

[thecatspajamas]

Originally Posted by teetwoohsix

I typed this out and posted it a long time ago in another thread, but here is an article in a collectibles magazine from 1974......

Sincerely, Clayton

"Acquire"

No opinion on the topic at hand, but I just had to say that I LOVE that title for a collectibles magazine. It pretty well sums it up, in one word, regardless of what genre of collectibles you are talking about.