Future of the Hobby/ Responses needed

[Tanman7baseball]

I read through the seven pages and needless to say I'm disappointed in the older collectors/dealers on this thread. Baseball is dying? That is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard. I've played baseball my whole life up until last year and I've never seen so much interest in this sport by people my age today. The game is becoming exciting. It's becoming international. I respect the game and love the history, but back then baseball was a national pastime because there was nothing else to do or watch... It might not be a national pastime now but still has a more than strong following. The old-timer era of baseball is going away. Today baseball players have what you call "swag". The showmanship and cockiness that the stars today are what kids emulate tomorrow. The game is evolving to appeal to the average short attention spanned American. Anyways, I do not wish to go on but hearing that baseball is dying just seemed to me to be a very skewed view...

Back to the O/T. The reason why you don't see kids and early to mid-twenty year olds is because they can't afford to be in this hobby. Even if they could buy the $5-10 modern packs, I feel they have this view instilled in their brain that if this pack doesn't have a relic/auto these cards are worthless. Therefore, if I can't buy the whole box which is guaranteed a hit then why waste my money on a pack that's not guaranteed a hit. Also, there's just too many options for the average kid. I want to buy vintage cards but most of the time I have to just sit and wish. I started collecting when I was 10 years old back in 2002. My grandfather got me into the hobby and fueled my future addiction to the hobby. I only bought modern cards because I didn't know any of the post-war or pre-war players. I started buying SP Legendary Cuts because I wanted that cut-auto of Mickey Mantle. I found myself intrigued by the players on the cards, but knew none of their names. I read Beckett religiously back then and was curious to why this player was "worth" more than this player. That's where I began my journey searching their stats and records. Soon I found out why Tris Speaker was worth more than Rogers Hornsby and so on. The history was fascinating. Unfortunately, my grandfather passed away of cancer in 2004. Collecting cards was too expensive for me so I stopped. The only thing I could afford was a Beckett subscription... Now that I'm older and have money, I'm back collecting in full force but this time only vintage.

Sadly, I must admit I personally know only a few collectors my age... I know hundreds of people who love baseball but only a few of which who know John McGraw or even Carl Yastrzemski. My point is that to collect vintage cards and not get caught up in the gambling game of modern cards, there has to be a connection to the history. I don't think 50-60s cards are going to rise in value. Really I don't see any common cards of most sets pre-1970 going up in value. As more years pass today's semi-stars won't even be sought after. I do truly believe the true heroes, legends, and superstars will continue to rise as long as the game of baseball continues. There are just too many post-war/pre-war cards being hoarded by baby-boomers right now. Card prices are high because you have all the old guys wanting to buy their dream cards for their bucket list. I'd love to see a percentage of cards bought over $1000 by collectors over the age of 40. Unfortunately, when they pass the market will be more than flooded. Prices will drop. Panic from the few left will fill the forums. Luckily, I will be there to embrace this flood. There is light on the other side of the tunnel.

[t206trader]

Tanman makes some good points. As someone who is 26 and only recently (within the last five years) got into the vintage hobby it is definitely an older persons game. I've done modern cards since I was about 18 and even modern cards are priced out of most kids range today. Why get a pack of cards that costs five or six bucks and has about a 1:10 chance of something noteworthy when you could spend your money on the countless other toys/games available today? Kids don't sit around and trade cards anymore. Realistically, someone should only considering entering vintage cards if their income is significant. Tons of other collectibles are in the same "state" as cards. Ever seen the amounts of old guys at a coin show? How about the surge of older guys buying up "rare and valuable" beanies during the beanie baby crash? The fact is that while children are great to see in the hobby, they simply can't afford anything significant with a $5 a week allowance...

[Republicaninmass]

the nhl has seen an uptick in live attendance overall the past few seasons, doesn't mean the sport is "growing".

I disagree, I think Hockey is growing, at least in cold states

[bn2cardz]

I am the father of 3 young children (3, 23months, 10months) and the two older ones like watching baseball and looking through my cards. The problem is that they don't get the chance to see MLB games because it isn't carried by non cable channels on week nights until the World Series. It comes on during weekends, but they are typically napping during weekend games and I am too busy to sit down and watch anyways. I might catch one here and there but not every weekend.

I am not going to buy a cable package just to watch baseball. I can do MLB online, but then I won't get to watch the Cardinals because it will be blacked out. So MLB has made it hard for people like my family to remain fans. I think the main thing that has helped is that the Cardinals have been in two World Series since my oldest was born so she has listened/watched those games. Also the All-Star game is still on non cable tv. As far as "baseball" (as far as the kids are concerned) they are fans because I play softball, and we have a local team that is in the Frontier League so we go to those games.

It is too early to say if the kids will keep enjoying the hobby, but unless they have more of a chance to watch MLB games without having to go to friend's houses then I don't see them growing up to be fans (at least not the way I was as a child).

[BigJJ]

I believe the question presented is the future of cards, and not memorabilia as well.

I believe the future of cards, is old cards, and not new cards.

Cards were the internet.

They were a way for kids to see images of their favorite players, and to know the players' statistics and awards, at any moment desired. Today this is accomplished by the internet. In my opinion, cards are an outdated 'technology'.

I actually think stamps and coins are comparable in this regard.

It appears that the peak of - new - baseball card collecting - from packs - and by young kids (not adults gambling) - was 1950-1995. These are the primary collectors today, purchasing what was wanted in youth and/or after.

The current generation is not card crazy the way we were. Those who have younger children may agree. None of my son's little friends or friends' children collect cards as we did. Cards aren't needed for a picture, or stats - and the kids have videos of the players on-hand, and the latest stats. The stats on cards are outdated shortly after printing.

Once this young generation ages, I do not think it is likely they will have as much of a connection to cards, as they did not use them in youth.

Cards connect us to another time, and not only to baseball being played, but really to the candy store of 1955, 1965, 1975, or 1985. They connect us to our grandfathers, to our dads. Cards transcend cards, cards transcend baseball to us. They connect us to another time, to our families, to our youth. This is where much of the value, financial and non-financial comes from.

In my opinion, the value of older cards, that are an example of period-needed technology, pre-1970, will always be a store of value though I am not certain the values will rise, even as population increases, but they will be a store of some value. Cards created after they were 'needed', I think have a tougher future.

With regard to memorabilia, I think pre war and also post war game used equipment sells for peanuts. How a top early game used Ty Cobb bat can be 50-100k, or a game used Ty Cobb jersey is 500,000k, or a Mickey Mantle game used bat is 15k, or a Jackie Robinson jersey is 300k, is crazy to me. They should be 5 times the price. Compare the prices with post-1900 art, or cars, these pieces should be much more.

Autographs, more are signed every day, both of the alive and the dead, tough market going forward. What happens when there are more Babe Ruth signatures than minutes he was alive?

Game used is interesting though. Even if they put Jeter in a new jersey every night, they -likely- won't have him in a new jersey every inning. But even if they did, there is a limit. And with game used there is a connection - to the actual player - playing the game - which everyone can relate to - all generations - forever.

[sforaker]

I agree with Jon. Pre-1970 or 1980 cards will be a store of value, with cards of the iconic Hall of Famers having the best chance for appreciation (though appreciation among this subset is still uncertain given that newer generations will not have grown up collecting cards). I also agree with Jon that vintage game used material of iconic Hall of Famers, particularly that with strong provenance, is undervalued and has the best opportunity for future appreciation. These items are pieces of history, that bring you as close to the game as possible, are of very limited supply and with likely high continued demand (including among those that love baseball but may not have collected cards). Some items are also one of a kind. I collect both cards and game used but have become much more interested in game used given the uniqueness and historical nature of some of this material.