Future of the Hobby, Opinion & Satire

[JimStinson]

For clarification I don't think the "hobby" of collecting autographs is going away...its been around for a couple hundred years at least and will probably be around for a couple hundred more.

Just not in the mainstream and not at the price levels we've seen in the last two decades and certainly not strong enough to support the "satellite" businesses that have grown up around the hobby in general.

When a Christy Mathewson autograph sells for four times the price of an Abraham Lincoln autograph that should be a barometer that something is a little "off" and that the hobby itself is headed for a "correction"

When the real estate bubble burst , it wasn't just the high end houses it was everything ! And people did not stop buying houses they just didn't pay NEAR as much and didn't buy as many of them ...

And most of the Mortgage brokers and other enterprises that "Fed Off the Frenzy" just found another line of work.
_________________________
jim@stinsonsports.com

Vintage autographs For Sale Now
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[vintagechris]

On the subject of good handwriting, I was with a group of guys a few weeks ago and one said his 14 year old son who is an A student could not sign his name in cursive as they don't teach it in school any more. Another guy who works for the DMV said 50% of people who get their drivers license sign their name in print.

[travrosty]

there is a certain level that the speculators and investors will buy the autographs for so the market will never totally crash, but it certainly could take a hit. in the early 2000's when boxing autos really started going up, there was a point where a simple sonny liston signature on anything, a simple slip of paper, could not really be had in the retail market, ebay/dealers for under 900 dollars. It was about 900 dollars or you couldn't get one. Then when the recession hit and autograph took a hit, you could get one for 700, even 500 and I once saw one sell on ebay for 350 dollars, and it was a good Liston autograph. Now it has bolstered back up a bit but not at the high level mark, but I think some collectors join certain hobbies as adults. I started collecting boxing autographs in my 20's and didnt watch or following boxing much as a kid.

I know roman coin collectors didnt follow their favorite roman politician when they were a kid, but somewhere along the way they thought it would be fun to collect old roman coins. whether the market will be as strong for baseball autographs remain to be seen, but I think the biggest names will hold their value.

There is only a finite number of real babe ruth autographs in the hobby and even if the GROWTH of collectors slow down, the population increases as a whole and there might even be more collectors, just not as many as if the growth continued at its highest pace, yet there will still be the same number of Ruth autographs for the most part, (undiscdovered ones notwithstanding.)

I do think that card collecting is in for a bigger shock than autographs. The rare, old vintage cards will do okay, anything in the 80's 90's and newer will suffer i think.

There used to be an ad in the magazines showing Ken Griffey jr's rookie card for upper deck with the line "The Ken griffey junior college fund" with the hook that if you invested in Griffey rookie cards, in 20 or 30 years you could put your kids through college. didnt quite work out that way, and it's not Griffey's fault, he hit over 600 home runs. it's just they made millions of that card.

[shelly]

I think the promotors will kill this hobby faster than anyone. How can they charge two hundred dollars for Randy Johnson and get away with it.
Nolayn Ryan foundation 85 dollars an honest price for one of the greatest pitchers ever. That is what all these guys should do.
I have said this over and over again it makes forgers very happy because when you cant afford a real one buy a piece of garbage and make your kid happy.

[RelicSports]

I concur with all future posters...big names/high value items will retain their value/increase over time. I personally am of the belief/hope that as the world continues to become more interconnected and foreign countries continue to grow (China, India, etc.), there may be a new collector that enters the market...less for the "reminiscing of the glory days" that many of us collect, but more for investment purposes. I would love to hear other board members thoughts on if this is wishful thinking or is a possibility/already occuring.

[shelly]

Andrew, not a chance. Soccor, Cricket, Ruggy Badmiton Basketball. Baseball is as american as Japan.

[Mr. Zipper]

Originally Posted by Bearfan4

I personally am of the belief/hope that as the world continues to become more interconnected and foreign countries continue to grow (China, India, etc.), there may be a new collector that enters the market...less for the "reminiscing of the glory days" that many of us collect, but more for investment purposes. I would love to hear other board members thoughts on if this is wishful thinking or is a possibility/already occuring.

For a few years now I have speculated what the effect will be on collectibles as China develops a middle class. You could be potentially adding millions of new and enthusiastic collectors into the hobby.

While I doubt it will have much of an effect on baseball, I could see huge impact on items that have wide global appeal -- historical, astronauts, explorers, etc.

Imagine if China sends a mission to the moon? It could spur an interest in tens of thousands of new collectors in astronaut autographs. Items that are relatively common now, would suddenly dry up as the new demand is added.

Just speculation, but it's fun to think about.

[shelly]

Steve, how are you going to authinticate there handwriteing? You will have to go to the tpa's and get there Chinese experts.