How many card shops have become just like this......

[Vol]

Originally Posted by packs

I know of no human outside of this board that would know who Addie Joss was.

Personally I know no one my age that collects.

+1

[Bored5000]

I am also of the belief that card values on the whole will go down over time; there just aren't enough young collectors to sustain the current level of prices. I wonder how much of the lack of interest in the hobby by people under 30 is impacted by the perception that baseball cards/autographs/memorabilia is a hobby populated by shysters and scammers.

Obviously, there are many honest and ethical people involved with the hobby. But I do find myself exasperated at times by the seemingly infinite amount of people looking to rip off buyers.

I hope I am wrong about this, but I think the counterfeit cards/slabs wil keep improving to the point that it may be impossible to tell what is real and what is fake. If that is the case, I can definitely see the high end market of Ruth/Gehrig/Cobb/Jordan etc. cards collapsing as people just throw their hands up and give up.

[packs]

I mean cards have only really been expensive for the past 10 years or 15 years. Before that they were worthless. What drove the prices up? I think it was older collectors getting back into collecting to be in touch with some aspect of their childhood and with higher incomes than they ever had before, along with wider access via the internet. At least that's my opinion.

People my age aren't going to be nostalgic about anything. Maybe they'll long for the days of flip phones and MySpace, but I don't think today's world allows for nostalgia like it used to. I try to think of things that I would return to from my childhood of the early 90s and I can't think of anything.

I'm naturally interested in history and I like baseball. But there aren't too many other people like me in my circle. Or maybe I just don't know where they are. I can't see any of my friends collecting cards for any reason for the rest of their lives. If they return to the things from their past, my guess is it will be old electronics.

[Deertick]

Originally Posted by packs

I mean cards have only really been expensive for the past 10 years or 15 years. Before that they were worthless.

[rhettyeakley]

Originally Posted by packs

I mean cards have only really been expensive for the past 10 years or 15 years. Before that they were worthless.

are you serious with this comment? So cards were worthless until 1998-2003?

I am much more optimistic about this hobby than most I guess based on the comments thus far. I think people are over analyzing things. As long as there are people that like both sports and history the future is probably fine. There are tons of hobbies out there that don't require one to have collected that item as a child to ensure that they collect as an adult. Heck, as a kid I was way more into Star Wars figures than I was baseball cards but only have a passive interest in them now. There is a portion of the population that likes to collect things, some couldn't care less. Those that have an interest in sports and like to collect things will be driven to this hobby. The overall limited supply of prewar sports cards actually IMO bodes well for this hobby. This is a hobby where a total population of under100 items is rather normal, a hobby such as coins and stamps any item with a total population in that range would be viewed as ultra rare and highly collected.

I think there will still be collectors they just might not follow the same path to the hobby as many of us did to get here. Again, I may be overly optimistic in the way I see it but only time will tell.

[packs]

Well what would you say the average price for a VG T206 Cobb any pose would have run you in 1998? Now you're going to pay somewhere around $1,000 on average.

I don't mean worthless as in zero value. My opinion (and it's just an opinion) is that cards didn't see real value until the internet became readily accessible.

[t206fix]

Originally Posted by packs

Well what would you say the average price for a VG T206 Cobb any pose would have run you in 1998? Now you're going to pay somewhere around $1,000 on average.

I don't mean worthless as in zero value. My opinion (and it's just an opinion) is that cards didn't see real value until the internet became readily accessible.

Yeah - but if you factor in inflation (look it up - gas was $1.06 a gallon back then...) and the fact that none of us had the internet readily available like we do now, and that vg Cobb is probably priced right for 1998. If I had a time machine, I would travel back to 1988, and I wouldn't have spent $$$ chasing Gregg Jeffries, Devon White and Bobby Bonilla RCs - and all my money would have been going into t206 Cobbs. But... there was no marketplace for them - I wouldn't know where to find one and, if I did, I would have paid probably $1000 at the local card shop for it.

The big game changer is in the internet. There is a market place out there right now for these cards where everyone in the whole world can compete for these cardboard gems. In 1998, I wouldn't know where to find a t206 cobb or even a t206 Danny Murphy Batting (I'm putting together a back run - if you've got one, let me know) Right now, I can go on the PSA/Sgc pop reports (I know the sgc pop report is lame) and see how many cards are out there graded. I can go on to VCP and Cardtarget and see how much these cards have been sold or priced at. If I buy a card with intention of flipping it, I know that that the everyone out there has seen what I paid for it... Information is everything, and right now, we have it at our fingertips. (Except for Leon, who must have government clearance on some of the searches he does... How many times do we need to see a post from him saying... "Look what I picked up on ebay. It's a 1914 Global Pirate Coupon (Ultra Rare Back only sold in Savannah, GA) Tris Speaker and I didn't spend that much on it ($7). It's the only one ever made!" Who knows about all these different cards unless he does have some sort of gov't clearance... right, Leon Your secret is safe with me...)

(DJ - start the Star Spangled Banner music in the background)

I love America and our free market ('Merica - love it). Because of this little thing called ebay (I know, I hate it too, but I also love it...) and Auction Houses, we know now that we can purchase a PSA 2 Red t206 Cobb from Henry Puffe in Lander, Wyoming for $540, or an SGC 20 from Merle Finkleberger in Jupiter, Florida for $495, and we know that we are not getting ripped off. But, if I see one going on ebay for a BIN of $800, well, buyer beware. Also, there's a 90% chance that we can resell that card for the same or an even higher amount in a year if needed (except in a global economic collapse or alien invasion).

So, anyhow, what is the point of my beer induced, way too long post...
I think that our hobby/addiction has never been better. If I wake up tomorrow, and t206 Cobbs are going for $75 (if you are selling a t206 cobb for $75, pm me first, I'll take it), then I know there will be trouble (not really, I'll still buy them from you). Right now, I can't even sniff a t206 cobb sgc10 for $400, so I'm pretty confident the market will stay stable. And yes, my 9 and 11 year old sons know who Ty Cobb is, and they'll buy a t206 cobb from you for $75 also.

Right now, check ebay and see how much a Mike Trout RC would run you, and ask yourself, have we changed since 1991? All of us on the vintage side say these are crap (or carp) cards, but are they, if they are really going for this much. Somebody's buying it...

[HOFAUTOS]

Take a visit to the Blowout Cards forum or FCB. Then visit YouTube and see all the mail day videos. Once you're done with that visit Vaughnlive.tv or ustream and see all the group case breaks. The hobby is huge and there are plenty of kids/teenagers in it. They might not buy cards from Wal Mart (they're smarter and know hobby product is better than retail) but they are active all over the Internet.

[dabigyankeeman]

Originally Posted by packs

People my age aren't going to be nostalgic about anything. Maybe they'll long for the days of flip phones and MySpace, but I don't think today's world allows for nostalgia like it used to. I try to think of things that I would return to from my childhood of the early 90s and I can't think of anything.

The problem is that right now you are too young to be nostalgic about anything. Wait 30+ years, and you will see that things from your youth all of a sudden become neat, they become great old memories, they bring back your youth, and so on. You will see, remember when it happens, i predicted it here and now!!

[brett 75]

Speculation is a wonderful thing . Ask anyone who invested in real estate . If you could really tell which way the card market was going you would already be a billionaire . How about enjoying it for what it is a Hobby . Brett

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by Bored5000

I am also of the belief that card values on the whole will go down over time; there just aren't enough young collectors to sustain the current level of prices. I wonder how much of the lack of interest in the hobby by people under 30 is impacted by the perception that baseball cards/autographs/memorabilia is a hobby populated by shysters and scammers.

Obviously, there are many honest and ethical people involved with the hobby. But I do find myself exasperated at times by the seemingly infinite amount of people looking to rip off buyers.

I hope I am wrong about this, but I think the counterfeit cards/slabs wil keep improving to the point that it may be impossible to tell what is real and what is fake. If that is the case, I can definitely see the high end market of Ruth/Gehrig/Cobb/Jordan etc. cards collapsing as people just throw their hands up and give up.

If they can't fake fine art to the point where prices of Van Goghs to Basquiats collapse, the forgers won't collapse the market on Ruths and Mantles. The money to be made now in faking cards is great; the technology available today is great; and yet, we can still discern real from fugazi. I doubt some miracle technology will appear that blows the game open with respect to forging.

We all have different definitions in our heads, when we wonder where "cards" will be in value down the line. My money is on the big HOF cards with eye appeal only appreciating in the years if not decades to come.

And let's say those seeing a collapse due to low-demand are right; when will this happen? 50 years, when guys in their mid 30s now are 80s? There are enough of us in our 30s and 40s to sustain current prices and then some. Even guys who are 50 today have at least, on average, a quarter century left of active buying. So color me unconcerned about what happens 25+ years out.

I don't know many people who project and act on 25 or 50 year windows. 2 years, 5 years, maybe even 10. Buy once we are talking about what happens around half a century down the line (or even a couple decades) I think it all just becomes too impossible to say.

[Julz24]

Originally Posted by VOLnVEGAS

+1

+2


The last person that I knew that collected cards moved out of town some 20 years ago. I tried to tell a good friend at work that I collect baseball cards. He looked at me like I was an idiot and I never brought it up again. And he is a hardcore baseball fan...

We're a dying breed I fear.