How many card shops have become just like this......

[barrysloate]

Hi Rich- a few thoughts about what you said.

I think there will be somebody somewhere buying newer cards, but there will still be many future collectors who will go straight to vintage. Every baseball fan has heard of Ty Cobb and Christy Mathewson so that is not a stretch at all.

Of the dwindling number of new card buyers, how many are buying to piecemeal complete sets together, and how many are buying only for the chase cards? I don't consider the latter to be a form of collecting, but more akin to buying a quick-pick lottery ticket.

How many stories have you heard about people buying packs, opening them up at the counter, and then throwing away the cards after they discover they didn't get any valuable ones? That's not collecting either.

Of course as long as new cards are being issued, some people will be buying them. But the number of buyers will be tiny compared to what we might consider the golden age of baseball cards (of which our definition may vary).

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Hi Rich- a few thoughts about what you said.

I think there will be somebody somewhere buying newer cards, but there will still be many future collectors who will go straight to vintage. Every baseball fan has heard of Ty Cobb and Christy Mathewson so that is not a stretch at all.

I'd think you be saddened by how few baseball fans have heard of Christy Mathewsonl, I think Cobb is better known but only because of that wretched movie of the 1990's. And it took his passing for anyone to remember Stan Musial outside of St. Louis, Kids today are not into baseball history the way our generation was-- for them baseball history is Mike Schmidt and Dwight Gooden and Reggie Jackson and those people who we have video of.


Of the dwindling number of new card buyers, how many are buying to piecemeal complete sets together, and how many are buying only for the chase cards? I don't consider the latter to be a form of collecting, but more akin to buying a quick-pick lottery ticket.

More than you think, however base sets are cheap enough the ways to buy the last cards you need for a set are so varied (Beckett Marketplace, COMC and tons of internet outlets, that the old school way of shows and stores to finsih sets is much less than in the past

How many stories have you heard about people buying packs, opening them up at the counter, and then throwing away the cards after they discover they didn't get any valuable ones? That's not collecting either.

Barry -- that was true about the cards beikng left on the counters in the 1980's - my late friends who ran H&H Hobbies, a truly local 1980's card store would have people come in, buy their 1985 packs and if the "rookies" were not hit, the cards were left on the counter. And I wager the kids in the 1930's if they did not hit a Babe Ruth card gave their Willie Kamm cards away.

Of course as long as new cards are being issued, some people will be buying them. But the number of buyers will be tiny compared to what we might consider the golden age of baseball cards (of which our definition may vary).

Barry -- I think you are severly underestmiating the new card market --- I do agree the new card market is no where near where it was in the early 1990's (we were bigger than detrifice (toothpaste) but come to Texas, come to this local show I set up at and see how active the new card world is

[barrysloate]

Maybe the new card market is bigger than I am assuming it is, but it is still a fraction of what it used to be. And if I'm a betting man, I would say it will continue to get smaller.

[xcgrammer]

Here is what I think: I was born in 1980, so I grew up in the boom times for baseball cards the late 80's and early 90's. Even though the hobby was being over produced by every company, to the point that they were killing values and turning off a lot of people most didn't realize this at the time. It was still a purer time and kids my age were truly passionate about it. I'm talking a VERY high percentage collected then. Much greater than today, our grandfathers collected, our fathers collected. They told us about Mickey Mantle and such. We bought Becketts and flipped to the old sets in awe of the high dollar signs on things like 1952 Topps Mantle's, so we still place value on these things. In 1991 I used to dream of the great vintage cards of the 1950's. My dad had a little stack of mid 50's and early 60's cards that he gave to me. My best card was a 1961 Whitey Ford All-Star worth about 80-100 dollars according to the guide.

My fathers generation values vintage cards because they grew up buying them. That generation taught us to collect they were the golden era. That generation, the baby boomers, will not be around in 20-25 years. My generation as long as we are here will value cards, vintage and the like. However when we are gone in the next 50 or so years there will be no one left who first-hand experienced the hobby when it was hugely popular. My generation for the most part hasn't taught the kids of today to collect. We have lost this next generation and thus lost all future generations.

This simply has to at some point affect values. While there will still be small percentages collecting with massive amounts of money to blow auctions records through the roof, I HAVE to think that the bulk of the hobby will have to be devalued at some point. Simply due to the fact that with fewer collectors (over the next 50 years who grew up collecting) it is back to simple supply and demand. Eventually you are going to get to a place where it is just viewed as pieces of paper. Everyone would have to agree that kids of today place little value or know much about the history of anything. I have to think this will only get worse with time. Believe me I am the last person who wants to see this happen.

I feel often that I was born 50 years too late. I am however thankful that my dad took the time to take me to Walgreens and baseball card shops and teach me and get me hooked on the hobby. I will be forever grateful to him for this and cherish those memories. I just wish future generations would have the same experience and value it as well.

[bbcard1]

There was a time when every ten to twelve year old boy in America collected baseball cards. I owned a shop at that time and was, in my own way, a celebrity. It was a smallish town (about 75,000) and I was often on television and in the news. My wife and I virtually never went into a restaurant without some kid saying, "look, it's the baseball card guy." We tried hard and tried to trade with the kids...never made much money...I think at the peak my partner and I were probably making $24K each a year, but we also split hours so we could pursue other interests...I did freelance writing, he did some acting and building. We also probably spent 30% or our paycheck back on stuff for our collected, granted at a decent discount. Weird things happened all the time. I remember being at a show when Mark McGuire was on a tear and his rookie cards literally tripled from the show open until the show close because he hit two homers that day. People actually kept up with baseball. Another odd thing that happened at shows and shops is that dealers actually tried to conduct business and had some semblance of customer service instead of standing off to the side grousing about how bad business was. It was a good time but we'll never see it again.

[slidekellyslide]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Hi Rich- a few thoughts about what you said.

I think there will be somebody somewhere buying newer cards, but there will still be many future collectors who will go straight to vintage. Every baseball fan has heard of Ty Cobb and Christy Mathewson so that is not a stretch at all.

Cobb? Maybe, but Christy Mathewson? Nope...I actually found a 1906 New York Giants postcard with Matty on it at a garage sale last week (for a whole nickel!) I told my buddy who IS a big baseball fan and he didn't know who that was. We're in a bubble Barry, we may think everyone outside of that bubble is aware of our world, but they are not.

[barrysloate]

That's surprising Dan. I know there are many people who actively follow baseball today who have never heard of Cap Anson or Mike Kelly, but I thought Christy Mathewson was a little more widely known. No question, however, that collectors live in a bubble. We assume everybody finds baseball cards fascinating, which of course most of the population doesn't.

[RCMcKenzie]

The 70's cards I collected as a kid are absolutely worthless. A 1952 Topps common in collector grade is worth 2 dollars at best. Same for Playballs and Goudeys. As long as people follow baseball there will be a market for the cards. The older the better. See Atlantics CDV auction etc.

[MattyC]

I am 37. If the next and successive generations have caused a no-demand situation in which Balt News Ruths are selling for $500 or $5000 dollars (a scenario to which I personally don't subscribe), I do know I won't be alive to see it.

As long as my generation of collectors is part of the buying pool, the prices will be pretty stable. I know too many guys in their 30s and 40s who never saw Ruth, Cobb, DiMaggio, Mantle, or Koufax play. But we revere their names in the hobby, the sport, and even popular culture. And their cards are revered, for what they represent, their aesthetic beauty, and because as kids we did stare at them in CCPs and Becketts and dreamed of one day owning them.

So if there ever is a world with little demand for the great vintage HOfer cards of today, I'll be very, very old, and care very little. If anything, I'd probably welcome that scenario, as it will allow me to make a flurry of long-desired purchases before my number is called.

[Rich Klein]

Because he is larger than life, and with all those movies and books on him and every once in a while Topps brings him back as well -- Ruth will be just fine as a collecting icon.

The Gehrig, DiMaggio and Mantle stuff will be fine as well.

Now, Harmon Killebrew will be forgotten once the generation who saw him play begins to really die off. Sorry, that is just a fact just as that will happen with Brooks Robinson, Enos Slaughter, Big John Mize, etc.

It is what it is

Rich