1952 pafko question

[Cardboard Junkie]

It Detroit, we were unconcerned with condition. Rubberbands, yep, we used em. And Tigers (our favorites) were truly abused. We liked to carry the tigers with us all day. So after strapping them with rubber bands we would sit on the sidewalk and grind down those horrible sharp corners so they were soft and round...then they would slide easier into our back pockets. Dave.

[sago]

How many 52 Pafko's, or any other cars for that matter, have been listed with a "rubberband" mark designation? How many cards have telltale dents in the center of the borders? An urban myth for sure. I don't doubt the relative scarcity; just the reason for it.

[Brianruns10]

Okay so here are my two or three cents on the Pafko question. I'm a historical researcher and filmmaker by trade, and I've often had to investigate issues of popular lore. And what I've often discovered is that there is a grain of truth usually present. So while I think the rubber band theory has currency not to be discounted, it is a contributing factor, one of several. Here are my thoughts

1) Pafko is part of the first series of the first major Topps release. Since they were embarking into new territory for them, and for the first time going into direct competition with Bowman (who had previously sued Leaf out of existence for supposed infringement), I think it makes perfect sense that the print run of the first series, cards 1-80, were limited compared to the print runs of subsequent series of cards. The first series was a test, and when they sold well, they printed more of the later series. PSA 6 commons of Series one are valued by PSA at twice that of a common card of series 2 (80 versus 40 on average), and the population reports on average suggest twice as many cards graded of the second series as the first. Therefore, I think it would be reasonable to deduce that the print run of series 1 was roughly half that of series 2, and this would include the Pafko.

2) Pafko was apparently a single print card, and therefore even less well represented in Series 1 than cards that were printed twice, like the Glaviano or the Zarilla. So he therefore constitutes an even more limited percentage of the whole of the print output of Series 1.

3) Pafko is the number 1 card and subject to condition issues. I don't think this can be discounted. From the anecdotes given, it seems that while some kids grouped cards by team, others DID group in numerical order, while a minority didn't organize them at all. Even if only a third of the kids who collected these cards organized them numerically, that would mean 1/3 of the Pafkos in circulation would be subject to the first card syndrome...rubber-bands, strings, being banged up in boxes...etc. The fact that #2 Runnels also has condition issues and scarcity in higher grades bears this out, given that if a kid never found a Pafko, then the Runnels would be next in line. The population reports also bear this out...there are nearly identical numbers of survivors of Red Backs across grades of PSA 3-PSA 5: 140 to 150 examples in each grade. But PSA six drops by more than half, to just 60...and then half again to just 31 examples in 7...and then plummeting to a mere 4 examples in PSA 8, with none in 9, and a lone example in 10, which survived under highly unusual circumstances...being pulled from an unopened pack, AND being sandwiched in the middle of the stack, protected from gum stains and corner dings. This incredible drop in population according to grade is without equal in the 52 Topps series, and I think the primary, reasonable conclusion is that this relates to its position as the first card in the set, albeit with mitigating factors:

4) Pafko is not a Star Card. As has been noted by others in this thread, Star Cards were given special treatment. Kids valued these cards for obvious reason, and they tend to fare better condition wise...whether because kids kept them in the middle of the stack where they'd be safe, or kept them separate entirely. To give a personal anecdote, I've viewed two large collections of cards held by their original owners...one is my Dad's collection, spanning '57 to 63, and another was a family friend, whose collection spanned 53-56. And in BOTH cases, they had their "traders" kept separately. So I think that Pafko, being an unremarkable player and a "common" wouldn't have received special treatment or consideration. He would've likely been used to protect the star cards, or would've more often been carried in stacks of "traders," and subject to more handling than a star card, which would've been kept close to a kid's vest, or at home in a drawer or box under the bed. Pafko is a neglected card in this regard.

5) The Aura. Pafko has benefited from the Aura of the 52 set. This is a LEGENDARY set, which established the modern baseball card, and really is what launches baseball cards in the postwar era. And Pafko is the first card of this vaunted set. So for that reason, he is naturally going to command a bit more interest, despite being a lackluster player. More collectors, even those who don't collect '52s, are going to be drawn to him because he is the first card, the inaugural card of the modern era.

6) A positive feedback loop of supply and demand. Pafko benefits from the same phenomenon that impacts the 311 Mantle card. By all logic, the Mantle card should not be as valuable as it is, given it is a double print, and survives across all ranges of grades, including no less than three PSA 10s. Yet he is prized because the card has transcended collecting. It is an ICONIC card, chock full of Americana...Norman Rockwell and Coca Cola wrapped up in one. This card represents wealth and prestige, and you have many non-collectors who want one simply because it is valuable, and they're drawn to that. So while the population of Mantle cards is greater than other high numbers, the demand is far greater. And so too goes for the Pafko. Because of the story of the rubber banding, because of the aura of being Card 1 in the set, because he is perceived as valuable, more people, even non-collectors, want the Pafko, and the demand goes up, along with the price, which only enhances the aura of unobtainability, which enhances the demand, and on and on, until a PSA 6 fetches $2000 or more.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by sago

How many 52 Pafko's, or any other cars for that matter, have been listed with a "rubberband" mark designation? How many cards have telltale dents in the center of the borders? An urban myth for sure. I don't doubt the relative scarcity; just the reason for it.

Rubber band damage isn't always dents. And isn't a qualifier with TPG. It's also something most sellers won't mention, the overall grade covering it.

This one was obviously rubber banded for a long enough time for the band to break down, leaving a nice diagonal stain and a bit of paperloss.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-1...ht_1215wt_1399

This one has no dents or stains, but does have a group of fine creases at the left center area that's not unusual for a top card of a banded stack. it gets snagged, or sticks out and gets pulled a bit rougher and gets creased. Not guaranteed to be from banding, but likely given the decent corners.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-TOPPS-A...item232c7f75b3

This one has teltale worn sections near the middle of the sides. Usually caused by loose banding, allowing the cards to slide against the band.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-1...ht_1826wt_1399

This one has obvious water damage at the lower right. Probably from being face down too close to a spill, or simply spilled on.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-1...#ht_818wt_1399

Those are just a few exaples from the roughly 75 or so on ebay right now. There were maybe 5 others with similar damage, but worse scans, and probably half of the cards listed have scans too poor to make out the details.

So 9 out of 75, or at best 12% with the sort of damage expected from bands or being on the top or bottom of a stack. drop out the half with bad scans, and the higher grade cards, and it gets closer to 30%.

As Jamie and Adam would say.....confirmed!

Steve B

[Volod]

Originally Posted by steve B

Rubber band damage isn't always dents. And isn't a qualifier with TPG. It's also something most sellers won't mention, the overall grade covering it.
So 9 out of 75, or at best 12% with the sort of damage expected from bands or being on the top or bottom of a stack. drop out the half with bad scans, and the higher grade cards, and it gets closer to 30%.

As Jamie and Adam would say.....confirmed!

Steve B

Good points, Steve - and would not that percentage climb even higher considering the total number of rubber-banded Pafkos that have probably just been discarded over the years due to the horrified reactions of condition-obsessive dealers and collectors who came upon them?

[ZenPop]

...Pafko watched Bobby Thomson's Shot Heard 'Round the World sail over his head... Pafko At The Wall... title of the mini-novel excerpted from Don Delillo's Underworld.