Derek Jeter will break Pete Rose's Hit Record

[dgo71]

Originally Posted by z28jd

It's hard to equate hits in Japan to MLB hits when Matt Murton holds the single season hits record over there.

Thank you voice of reason! Japan is upper AA-to-AAA caliber at best. Everyone not named Ichiro who has come over has been pretty bad. Nomo and Kuroda have had some success but nothing of "superstar" caliber. For every Ichiro there are 20 Tsuyoshi Nishiokas...and there's a reason for that.

[ctownboy]

According to Baseball Reference.com, here are the top 10 players with the most Hits including and after the age of 40. The last number is Plate Appearances.

1. Cap Anson 823 2992
2. Pete Rose 699 2955
3. Sam Rice 551 1906
4. Luke Appling 488 1930
5. Honus Wagner 479 1989
6. Carlton Fisk 473 2011
7. Jim O'Rourke 458 1678
8. Dave Winfield 413 1722
9. Carl Yastrzemski 410 1762
10. Julio Franco 409 1619

The average for this group is 520 Hits. However, since only three of the 10 had over 500 Hits it is most likely that under 500 Hits is more reasonable.

So, if Jeter has 3304 Hits now and were somehow able to get 200 Hits in each of his next two seasons, he would stand at 3704. If he were to turn 40 and perform like the average of the above 10 players (520 Hits) then that would give him 4224 Hits by his age 44 season.

However, if he performed like the average of the bottom seven on that list (447 Hits) then Jeter would have 4151 Hits by his age 44 season. So, he would be 44 and still be 105 Hits away from tying Rose.

So, the ONLY way it looks like Jeter is going to break the record is if he gets 200 or more Hits in each of the next two seasons and THEN performs better than the average of the top 10 guys to play after the age of 40.

David

Jeter just has to be willing and able to play as much as Rose did going forward. Jeter needs only 72 hits in the first 78 games of 2013 to be ahead of Rose as of their respective 39th birthdays.

Rose played until he was nearly 45 1/2 years of age, however, and for Jeter to catch Rose he'd need probably need to play to the same age, which would mean 7 more seasons. Rose's numbers his final 6 seasons were pretty dismal (.261 BA, .315 SA, 5 total home runs), and I'm guessing Jeter wouldn't hang around if his stats were that poor, but who knows. One thing Jeter has going for him that Rose didn't is the availability of the DH. I can't see Jeter ever being a full-time DH, but I could see him playing Short for 2-3 more years while DHing twice a week, then playing First for a few seasons while DHing 2-3 times a week. If he stays healthy enough to do that while hitting .280+, then he has a shot at passing Rose.

[MVSNYC]

Hmm, not sure. i would love to see him do it, but this ankle and his age are concerning me (he's just a few months older than i am for the record ).

I'm with Barry, probably around 3800 +/-

I'd love for him to push to 4000. "IF" he gets there, i'm sure he'll power thru to reach for the record.

[Scott Garner]

Great topic!

I believe that Jeter is trying to reach at least 4,000 hits. When you get to this point it really is rarified air.

Will he pass Rose? IDK, but I'll be pulling for him to try. Records are meant to be broken. Ask anyone who has played the game, FWIW...

[bigtrain]

Rose's hit totals in his last four years 121, 107, 107, 52. He hung them up at 45. Can Jeter pass Rose? Probably, if he wants to hang around until he's 45 years old. That's not going to happen.

[D. Bergin]

I'd like to see Jeter get to 4000. Anything past that and I think he'd just be hanging on.

The ankle is healing slowly, so it's just another sign that he IS aging.

We saw Jeter slow down quite a bit when he was suffering nagging injuries starting a few years ago, and he eventually rebounded from that.

I think it will be even harder to bounce back this time.