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  #1  
Old 01-29-2013, 06:08 PM
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Clayton
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Originally Posted by White Borders View Post
I'm still in the early stages of attempting to calculate estimated populations for all T206, T206 Backs, and each T206 Subject. For what it's worth, my very preliminary calcs for these are:

T206 Magee Portrait: 700 in circulation*

T206 Magie Error: 240 in circulation*

* I define in circulation as the # of PSA graded + the # of SGC graded + the # of raw and other third party graded that occasional show up on ebay, bst, auction houses, shows. It does not include the # of raw that are in long time collections that never show up for sale.

Keep in mind that these are very preliminary population estimates and I am still collecting data and refining calculations. I do not yet have enough information to determine statistical confidence intervals (which could show my estimates to be statistically worthless). Also, my population calculation of the Magie Error is probably skewed high because, in my opinion, the ratio of raw to graded for Magie Error is probably lower than for the average T206 subject due to it being a rare card and more likely to be graded. I have not yet gotten to the point of taking this factor into account.

Best Regards and Happy Collecting
Craig
Thanks Craig, great information & research !!!

I have to admit I'm a bit confused at why it wouldn't make sense for the # to be 34 when you review the print groups, but then again, I'm no printing expert. Craig makes a great point about print group 2 with PB backs~~ 136 / 4= 34. Either way, it's great to have a rational discussion

Sincerely, Clayton
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  #2  
Old 01-29-2013, 06:39 PM
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Tim
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I think looking at the print group numbers all together helps bring them into perspective.

A couple of thoughts to go along with this information:

-ATC knew in 1909 that there would be at least two series. They selected PG1 and PG2 in early 1909. The original PG1 and PG2 total 350 subjects as advertised.

-I do not believe ATC/ALC considered error corrections or team updates new subjects. We as collectors checklist them that way. Examples: Magie/Magee and Dahlen Boston/Brooklyn were a single corrected or updated subject. Not two as we classify them.

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Last edited by Abravefan11; 01-29-2013 at 07:23 PM.
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  #3  
Old 01-29-2013, 07:23 PM
steve B steve B is offline
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I don't believe the number is 34 because.

There are small groups that don't work for 34 subject sheets.
The 14 Sl that aren't on Hindu.
The group that's only on P150,SC150, Sov150,and Hindu.
A few very small groups that are very odd and don't really fit any pattern.

If the number of subjects on a sheet was 34 there should not be smaller groups.

Would it make any sense to print a sheet of 34 southern league subjects, and use those for Piedmont, OM and Hindu backs then print a sheet of 14 subjects for only Piedmont and Old Mill?
The Old Mill backs are the key here, since they're different between the southern league subjects and Major/minor league subjects.
So those 14 couldn't have been included on a sheet with other Old Mill backs.

And would it make sense to make a sheet of 34 that included 20 of the previous SL subjects and only 14 new ones? Especially when there were more being worked on and nearly done?

another way of looking at it is
14 +14 +6 =34

Assuming a more complex sheet layout with a subject appearing on more than one sheet or more than one place on a sheet 3 sheets of 14 with 8 double prints makes more sense and easily accounts for the 14 that don't have Hindu backs.

It also works for the other smaller groups.

All this is complicated by the reworking of many subjects between the 150 and 350 groups.

All in all a very complex puzzle.

Steve B
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  #4  
Old 01-30-2013, 02:08 AM
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Yeah, this is a lot for me to wrap my brain around

It seems to make more sense to me that all 48 SL'ers would be in the same print group. For a minute, while pondering the idea that the 14 subjects not printed with Hindu were printed in the second print group (350 series), I thought of the 14+14+6 (like Steve mentioned above) and wondered "well, a double-print on the 14 subjects and maybe the 6 super-prints?",,,,,but the OM on these 14 subjects kills that idea. It would only work if you were talking Piedmont.

I really wish someone would find an intact sheet Maybe Mastro has the answer The Obak sheet comes to mind (I know, Obak's weren't printed by the ALC).

I love this type of discussion, thanks !!!

Sincerely, Clayton
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  #5  
Old 01-30-2013, 05:09 AM
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Clayton - The 48 southern league subjects were all printed with an Old Mill back that was used only for these subjects. The ledger page below shows the dates ALC began packing the Old Mill cards and shipping them to the factory. These dates are in the late summer of 1909. Also there is a hand written not that says: "Southern Leagues discontinued later part 1909." I think this unique back is fairly solid evidence of all 48 cards being printed at the same time during the PG1 production.

Group 1 subjects began being printed with Piedmont 350 backs in 1909. So it seems logical to me that all 48 SL subjects, who were in production at the time, were being printed with Piedmont 350 as well. In order for the 14 to be printed with PG2 subjects, ATC would have had to shelve them from late 1909 until several months into 1910, and then print just the 14 as was proposed.

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Last edited by Abravefan11; 01-30-2013 at 05:16 AM.
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  #6  
Old 01-30-2013, 12:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Abravefan11 View Post
Clayton - The 48 southern league subjects were all printed with an Old Mill back that was used only for these subjects. The ledger page below shows the dates ALC began packing the Old Mill cards and shipping them to the factory. These dates are in the late summer of 1909. Also there is a hand written not that says: "Southern Leagues discontinued later part 1909." I think this unique back is fairly solid evidence of all 48 cards being printed at the same time during the PG1 production.

Group 1 subjects began being printed with Piedmont 350 backs in 1909. So it seems logical to me that all 48 SL subjects, who were in production at the time, were being printed with Piedmont 350 as well. In order for the 14 to be printed with PG2 subjects, ATC would have had to shelve them from late 1909 until several months into 1910, and then print just the 14 as was proposed.

Excellent !!! Great work, as usual Tim. Makes sense to me, and that ledger page is amazing. How do you find these things?

Thanks again for sharing information like this-I appreciate it !!!

Sincerely, Clayton
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  #7  
Old 01-30-2013, 12:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teetwoohsix View Post

I really wish someone would find an intact sheet Maybe Mastro has the answer The Obak sheet comes to mind (I know, Obak's weren't printed by the ALC).

I love this type of discussion, thanks !!!

Sincerely, Clayton
Mastro has the most info about this if you believe that the Wagner was cut from a sheet. It would follow that the other cards he bought that day were also from a sheet. He could've put them together like a puzzle.
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  #8  
Old 01-30-2013, 01:05 PM
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Clayton
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Originally Posted by I Only Smoke 4 the Cards View Post
Mastro has the most info about this if you believe that the Wagner was cut from a sheet. It would follow that the other cards he bought that day were also from a sheet. He could've put them together like a puzzle.
I know, after reading "The Card" I realized that Mastro may really have the information we all need. Whether or not he will give the info, well, time will tell I guess. I would just love to know who was on that sheet.

I've also wondered if maybe it could've been a strip? Like the one found in Wagner's old uniform. Many board members are doing a great job at trying to piece together a sheet using top/bottom names and I enjoy looking at that (great job Chris).

Sincerely, Clayton
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