The next five years- what do you see for the future of the hobby?

[vintagecpa]

If I had to speculate, I would guess prices will go down slightly for the next 5 years. I base this on a combination of things. 1. Baby-boomers retiring and are on more of a fixed income. 2. Lots of people that found themselves unemployed for extended periods of time will be more likely to save instead of buying cardboard. 3. Younger collectors havr more interest in more modern cards 4. Baseball doesn't hold the same nostalgic value to newer collectors. As a kid, my entire summer was spent playing baseball, not Call For Duty. 5. I just see an overall trend of less discretionary income for such hobbies given today's economic environment. Just my opinion.

*Disclaimer* I thought Apple Computer was a bad investment 10 years ago when the stock was trading at about $25/share, so my track record of predicting the future is sketchy-at-best.

[byrone]

Originally Posted by vintagecpa

*Disclaimer* I thought Apple Computer was a bad investment 10 years ago when the stock was trading at about $25/share, so my track record of predicting the future is sketchy-at-best.

Why, what happened to the stock price since then?

[varsitycollectibles]

I agree with the notion that many of the pre-war players (excluding the obvious names) will drop in value. As much as I like the art aspect and history of pre-war cards, my grandmother never told me stories about players like Christy Mathewson. However, I've heard countless stories about Aaron, Gibson, Mays, and Ryan. It's those stories and my own personal experiences that shape my collection.

I also think that the shift from true collecting to a form of cardboard gambling will continue to hurt vintage value. Again, this excludes names like Ruth...

[packs]

I'm still pretty young so as morbid as it is I'm hoping collections become freed up and collectors become few and far between so that I can pick up what I want, not what I can afford. Of course that's long term.

In the next five years I think all type cards will take serious hits. There are some really cheap T211's and even cheap T215's. No one seems to be buying any 20s caramel besides the major stars.

[Wite3]

In five years the blue old mill will turn green...

[freakhappy]

Originally Posted by Wite3

In five years the blue old mill will turn green...

And worth $100,000! BWAHAHAHAHAHA!

[CharleyBrown]

I don’t necessarily agree with the notion that the lack of stories being told by parents/grandparents will tarnish the value of the non-iconic players of the 1870s-1930s..

I think that as long as there are people interested in baseball, and literature is out there, people’s interest will be there.

When I grew up, the stories I heard were of Whitey Ford, Mickey Mantle, DiMaggio, and Ted Williams...

It wasn’t those stories that influenced my collecting, but rather reading about baseball history. One only needs to read about Mathewson, Walter Johnson, etc. to be intrigued about them and find an interest in collecting them.

IMO, as long as the high rollers are still interested in collecting, be it for investment or pleasure or both, prices/values will remain strong.