Black Swamp Find?

[barrysloate]

This is a collection with great stuff and pedestrian stuff. The hundreds and hundreds of commons in PSA 7 are going to be really cheap, no question. But PSA 9 Cobbs won't be, and I think if you buy something like that and hold onto it for a few years, you are going to do really well with it. We are taliking about Ty Cobb here.

[Matthew H]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

This is a collection with great stuff and pedestrian stuff. The hundreds and hundreds of commons in PSA 7 are going to be really cheap, no question. But PSA 9 Cobbs won't be, and I think if you buy something like that and hold onto it for a few years, you are going to do really well with it. We are taliking about Ty Cobb here.

Aren't there high grade whales out there that avoid sets like this due to the lack of cards that fit their standards? I really have no clue, but if there are, this could bring them out.

One thing I just noticed, Heritage is only offering 3 lots in the first offering. No graded 9 Cobb, no commons.

[peterose4hof]

I hope commons are cheap. I would love to get my hands on one of those McLeans in a 7 holder.

[barrysloate]

Leon- I bet the first PSA 9 Cobb out of the block goes for 20K or more....but it's also possible with each subsequent one offered, the price may go down.

I think there are going to be some great opportunities in this collection. The collectors who can buy the best cards and hold onto them for a number of years will do very well. On the other hand, the dealers who buy these on Monday and have them on ebay on Tuesday will not.

[4815162342]

I never thought that the incomplete auction preview I stumbled upon online and asked the board about would become the greatest find of all time. I've got a strong feeling that the user "mountaingirl" who later PM'd me with information might be one of the family of sellers.

[M's_Fan]

A fox news article on this find:

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/07/10...est=latestnews

[ethicsprof]

it really pleases me to know that you have 80,000 ready to buy cards in this very moment. i wish i had such liquidity.
congrats on a great retirement.
all the best,
barry

[barrysloate]

Thanks Barry. I haven't actually "retired"...I just don't work.

[msohn]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Leon- I bet the first PSA 9 Cobb out of the block goes for 20K or more....but it's also possible with each subsequent one offered, the price may go down.

I think there are going to be some great opportunities in this collection. The collectors who can buy the best cards and hold onto them for a number of years will do very well. On the other hand, the dealers who buy these on Monday and have them on ebay on Tuesday will not.

I was stunned to see so many high grade Cobbs in that find. (But it makes sense, when I think about how many high grade Roger Clemens cards I saved in the 80s - the collector saved the best!).

I agree with your view that the price appreciation potential of the E98 Cobb is limited, but I think that this card could still command $25,000+ for all. Consider the 1915 Cracker Jack card, which is reported to have a population of 10 for PSA 8, a pop of 2 at 8.5 and a pop 1 at 9. The PSA 8s are likely able to get $20-25,000 despite having 3 cards in higher grade.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by msohn

I was stunned to see so many high grade Cobbs in that find. (But it makes sense, when I think about how many high grade Roger Clemens cards I saved in the 80s - the collector saved the best!).

I agree with your view that the price appreciation potential of the E98 Cobb is limited, but I think that this card could still command $25,000+ for all. Consider the 1915 Cracker Jack card, which is reported to have a population of 10 for PSA 8, a pop of 2 at 8.5 and a pop 1 at 9. The PSA 8s are likely able to get $20-25,000 despite having 3 cards in higher grade.

Nice analysis and you absolutely could be right on the prices. We will know eventually. Maybe the Cobbs go for way more than first imagined. 50K each?, 35k each?, Who knows until they are sold. happy collecting

[msohn]

Originally Posted by Leon

Nice analysis and you absolutely could be right on the prices. We will know eventually. Maybe the Cobbs go for way more than first imagined. 50K each?, 35k each?, Who knows until they are sold. happy collecting

As with everything, there is definitely more than art than science to determining value. But you are right - we will all know soon.

If the 1915 Cracker Jacks are a good gauge for what they could be worth, then you have to think that the T206 Cobb varieties have good room to run.

[barrysloate]

The history of collecting is filled with stories of famous hoards, most prominently in the field of numismatics. Pick up a copy of the Red Book and there are pages recounting enormous hoards, often with thousands of rare coins found in one place. And all of them end the same way: the hobby absorbs all the material, and over time a stable price structure is achieved.

The same will happen with this find. While it is of course mind boggling in scope, all the cards will eventually find their way into collections and all will trade at some reasonably high value. Maybe an E98 Cobb will be a whole lot cheaper than an E93 Cobb, but it will still be valuable and there will still be a market for it. But you need patience. If you buy them you have to be prepared to put them away for a few years. As I said earlier, the dealers who buy these just to flip them the next day will have their hands full. This is a long term project.

[Matt]

Originally Posted by msohn

If the 1915 Cracker Jacks are a good gauge for what they could be worth, then you have to think that the T206 Cobb varieties have good room to run.

Historically, this issue isn't anywhere near as popular as the cracker jacks, so the demand is not close.