Black Swamp Find - PSA E98 Population Report

[scooter729]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

The pricing will be all over the board. The PSA 10 Wagner will surely set a new record for a caramel card and will be well into six figures. But if you can settle for a Wagner in a 7 it will be so easy to find and very affordable. And what about the commons where there are 20-40 of each one? They won't be too expensive either. Man, this is a fascinating find.

For the ones with 20-40 of each, it might be something similar to the Tango Eggs cards, where you see NM cards going for $500 for the common cards, but much higher for a player where less cards were found.

Obviously I'm not sure about it at all, but super curious to see how this pans out....

[Jaybird]

Originally Posted by scooter729

For the ones with 20-40 of each, it might be something similar to the Tango Eggs cards, where you see NM cards going for $500 for the common cards, but much higher for a player where less cards were found.

Obviously I'm not sure about it at all, but super curious to see how this pans out....

I was thinking the same thing. Reminding me of Bescher and Jennings from the Tango set.

[barrysloate]

Yes- the Jennings and Bescher Tango Eggs was the first thing that came to mind. But in this case, 20-25 cards out of 30 are like the Jennings and Bescher. Before this find finding a high grade E98 common for a type set was a challenge. You might come across a 5 or 6, but a 7 would be really tough. Now you will have 700 to choose from. From that perspective high grade commons may be cheaper than T206 in a similar grade.

But what about the Ty Cobbs graded a 9? Those won't be cheap. Yet one has think that 46 Wagners are going to cause a big price drop. Very difficult to assess value here. This is going to be volatile group of cards. Still, maybe the most unusual find in hobby history.

[pcoz]

I have two Wagner 4's in both Orange & Blue. I wonder what those values are now and will be later. It's debatable, but many believe in valuing cards you look at demand then rarity. I do think the other colors will draw attention after this high end group is sold.

[robw1959]

Pete, who graded your orange E98 Wagner? There is only one of those in the PSA pop report and that is a PSA 2.5
--Rob

[pcoz]

Originally Posted by robw1959

Pete, who graded your orange E98 Wagner? There is only one of those in the PSA pop report and that is a PSA 2.5
--Rob

Here are my orange & blue Wagners....

[DeanH3]

Originally Posted by pcoz

Here are my orange & blue Wagners....

Fantastic cards Pete!

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by pcoz

I have two Wagner 4's in both Orange & Blue. I wonder what those values are now and will be later. It's debatable, but many believe in valuing cards you look at demand then rarity. I do think the other colors will draw attention after this high end group is sold.

Value is directly proportional to demand over supply in a dynamic setting, with these values subject to nearly constant change. However, many overlook the fact that the supply portion of the equation is not the total number in existence at any given time, but the number that are or are likely to become available in a given, reasonable period of time. Pure collectors, such as most of the members of this board, tend to purchase and hold for years, decades, quarter and half-centuries, as opposed to speculators and pure investors, who, in looking for the quick and profitable flip, tend to hold for only as short a time as necessary, thereby increasing the available supply for the defined reasonable period of time. It was for this reason that the most prolific writer in the coin collecting field, Q. David Bowers, deemed the collector "king."

In my view, prices may drop for the short term, but will not take too long to rise again, as most of these gems are likely to be put away in short order and removed from the marketplace for many years.

Best wishes to all--interesting post!

Larry

[4815162342]

There have been a few awesome finds over the past few years, whether it was the T207 Red Cross Lowdermilk that walked onto the Antiques Roadshow, or the Just So Ewing found nailed inside the wall of a house, or now this. The hobby continues to provide excitement. But it must stink to be tbob.

[ullmandds]

It seems to me the cards that were hardly present in this find will become even more valuable and expensive... whereas the more common cards will depreciate a la tango eggs beschers!!

[Bosox Blair]

I'm holding out for the Brown Swamp find of Gem Mint E107s....

Cheers,
Blair

[ScottFandango]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

It seems to me the cards that were hardly present in this find will become even more valuable and expensive... whereas the more common cards will depreciate a la tango eggs beschers!!

THERE ARE FEWER Bescher E90-1 than Tango....

Steve Soloway completed the e90-1 set minus one card....The Bescher!